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It's time for some tough action on Zimbabwe
Peter Kagwanja
June 13, 2006

This article was first published in Pretoria News, Edition 1

Zimbabwe's dangerous economic and political slide seems to be compelling South Africa to rethink its policy of quiet diplomacy in favour of a tougher, more public stance.

With its bilateral approach having hit a dead end, Pretoria must now step up its multilateral engagement with African institutions and the international community to pursue a mixed policy of diplomatic pressure, sanctions and incentives to halt Zimbabwe's implosion.

Zimbabwe is becoming a failed state, posing a real menace to regional peace and security and forcing Pretoria to take a hard look at the quiet diplomacy policy.

On May 17, deputy foreign minister Aziz Pahad sounded alarm bells over the impact of Zimbabwe's economic meltdown on South Africa - including the burden of more than 2-million refugees. President Mbeki has also publicly backed United Nations (UN) Secretary-General Kofi Annan's proposed diplomatic intervention to resolve Zimbab-we's crisis.

Pretoria's public call for urgent solutions to the Zimbabwe crisis signals the end of its behind-the-curtains diplo-macy.

Mbeki responded to Zimbabwe's crisis, triggered by the controversial 2000 land reforms, with "quiet diplomacy" - a policy underpinned by the imperatives of African solidarity and peer pressure as opposed to "megaphone diplomacy" and open criticism of illiberal policies.

The policy was motivated by Pretoria's intense fear of having a failed state on its doorsteps.

But besides shielding President Robert Mugabe from international pressure, the approach strengthened the hand of the ruling elite and stabilised the state, postponing Zimbabwe's political meltdown.

And now the nightmare of a failed state looms even larger. The most formidable "opposition" to Mugabe's regime and threat to Zimbabwe's stability is an economy running amok: a record peace-time annual inflation rate of 1 042,9%; more than 75% unemployment; almost empty foreign reserves; and acute fuel and food shortages.

The economic free fall complicates a "triple" humanitarian crisis: more than 4-million refugees and internally displaced persons; chronic food shortages with several million hungry; and a 24,6% adult HIV infection rate.

Harare is heaping all the blame on external forces and sanctions for its economic woes, which is unhelpful. It must start redressing its own policies, which have pushed the economy to the ropes. For instance, the 2005 state-engineered urban clean-up ("Operation Murambatsvina") left more than 133 000 households without shelter or livelihoods and wiped out the informal sector - the poor's haven.

Mugabe has promised to retire when his term expires in 2008, but the lack of a transition plan is leaving the country suspended in limbo between war and peace. The ruling Zanu-PF is split in the middle by a vicious race to succeed Mugabe.

Its plan to create a "transitional presidency" and postpone elections in 2008 is threatening to drive key party stalwarts to the opposition and destroy the ruling party.

Moreover, the regime's reliance on a nearly 40 000-strong military and the more than 20 000 ready-for-combat youth militias to crush popular revolts is fostering a climate of a country under a de facto martial law.

But with shrinking incomes and irregular pay, the rank and file officers may not be relied upon to quell riots.

Mbeki's intervention in October last year failed to prevent the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) from fracturing into two rival factions now locked in self-destructive feuds over the party's name and assets.

There is considerably doubt that an opposition alliance would arise to field one presidential candidate in 2008, dimming the chances for a democratic change and creating widespread frustration and uncertainty.

In February, Mbeki presented a draft constitution, arising from the inter-party talks he brokered between 2002 and 2004, as the showpiece of his quiet diplomacy policy.

The draft can serve as a starting point for a constitution-making process, but it remains on the back burner, with Mugabe declaring in February that "there is no crisis requiring intervention in Zimbabwe".

Even as the ripples of Zimbabwe's crisis rock its neighbourhoods, Pretoria lacks the requisite force of sanction to reassert its mediation role. But it has taken a significant first step in attempting to apply economic pressure.

In September last year, after the dispute over Zimbabwe's arrears to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Pretoria offered a $500-million credit line to enable Harare pay off its debts and buy fuel and food.

But, as pre-conditions for the credit, it urged for inter-party talks on a new constitution, the scrapping of restrictive laws and an economic recovery plan.

Harare shot down this initiative, paying its IMF arrears and printing Z$60-trillion (about $230-million) to sustain its operations.

But Pretoria's officials insist that the loan offer is still on the table, following the IMF's decision to block Zimbabwe's access to renewed credit. Although this creates an opening for re-engagement, Zimbabwe is unlikely to take the offer owing to considerations of national sovereignty and pride.

Declining support for Harare from African leaders like Libya's Muammar Gaddafi, who supported Mugabe with a staggering $480-million in 2002, might boost South Africa's economic pressure. But Foreign Minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma said last month South Africa would not impose targeted sanctions against Zimbabwe.

Pretoria's multilateral diplomacy through the 14-member Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) is unlikely to bring about any change, with its diplomats acknowledging that "Mugabe is larger than SADC".

SADC is unlikely to include Zimbabwe's crisis in the agenda for its summit in August.

The African Union's (AU) leaders' summit is believed to have the requisite diplomatic weight to accelerate chance in Zimbabwe, but it lacks the political will and courage to do so. "Zimbabwe is a hot potato," a senior AU official said recently.

The AU's credibility suffered a setback after its January summit rejected on technicalities yet another resolution by its own Commission on Human and People's Rights critical of Zimbabwe.

Its summit next month offers an opportunity to mobilise the continent behind a call for urgent action to resolve Zimbabwe's crisis, but South Africa needs to act to ensure that the chance is not missed.

Pretoria sees its best chance in backing the UN's plan on Zimbabwe. Although the plan's contours are still blurry, it is said to involve a trade-off between an aid package and Mugabe's exit timetable.

But Zimbabwe has poured cold water on the plan, with Mugabe's spokesman George Charamba saying that Annan's invitation has lapsed.

Annan's point-man, UN's under-secretary general for political affairs Ibrahim Gambari, has also denied that there is such a plan, despite confirming that a visit from Annan is still a possibility.

Zimbabwe's new diplomatic offensive to rope in former Tanzanian president Benjamin Mkapa to help in bilateral talks with the British Prime Minister Tony Blair appears misguided, with the UK backing the UN initiative.

Pretoria's new tough stance might send the right message to Harare, but its officials must now stay the course.

*Dr Peter Kagwanja is a Research Associate with the Centre for International Political Studies

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