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A lesson for Mbeki's 'quiet diplomacy'
Comment, The Zimbabwe Independent
February 10, 2006

http://www.theindependent.co.zw/news/2006/February/Friday10/comment.html

SOUTH African President Thabo Mbeki all but washed his hands of Zimbabwe at the weekend when he said he was now simply watching the political and economic crisis unfold after his mediation efforts failed.

Mbeki was quoted in the media as saying he thought he was close to a breakthrough in Zimbabwe after prodding the ruling Zanu PF and the opposition Movement for Democratic Change to draw up a draft constitution as part of a negotiated political settlement.

Mbeki’s remarks come at a time when Zimbabwe’s long-running crisis is worsening. The International Monetary Fund, fresh from a visit to Harare to assess the economic situation, said Zimbabwe now risks plunging into a meltdown unless it adopts a "comprehensive policy package comprising several mutually reinforcing actions".

Central bank governor Gideon Gono said as much two weeks ago when he projected inflation to escalate to a record 800% next month. IMF economist Sonia Munoz said Zimbabwe was going through a period of "suppressed" inflation either due to a structural break, an aberration in the market or an error of measurement in the consumer price index.

It’s interesting to note that Zimbabwe is not only politically repressive but also uses the state apparatus to suppress inconvenient economic data.

Official inflation is around 586%. The exchange rate is at US$1: $160 000, interest rates are 540% in negative territory and other economic indicators are equally bad.

The economy shrank by 3,5% last year after contracting by 4% in 2004 and 10,5% in 2003. The budget deficit is 8,6% while public domestic debt is $15 trillion. The external debt is about US$5 billion.

Against this background, it is clear Mbeki would not have been a decisive factor in Zimbabwe. The collapsing economy and the Zanu PF succession struggle — which are also likely to be President Robert Mugabe’s Waterloo — will decide the future.

Mbeki said his government believed a new constitution agreed by Mugabe and the MDC should have paved the way for a resolution of the crisis. The Zimbabwe Independent was the first to report on the secret talks between Zanu PF and the MDC in 2003 amid a chorus of denials.

Mbeki has said before that the problem was Mugabe would not listen. He said he would agree to do something and then go on to default or do the exact opposite.

But by suggesting he had pinned his hopes on a draft constitution and the attendant political process, it’s either Mbeki was being Machiavellian or simply naïve. Did he seriously believe Mugabe was ready to be legislated out of power? Those involved in the constitutional initiative say it had about 80% content from the government-sponsored draft rejected by voters in 2000 and 20% from the National Constitutional Assembly draft.

Zanu PF insiders say Mugabe only agreed to Mbeki’s initiative to buy time and not to secure a resolution of Zimbabwe’s crisis. Mugabe’s principal negotiators have said their mandate was to ensure the talks failed.

The Zimbabwean question was widely seen as a litmus test for Mbeki and other African leaders. It was also seen by many as a test case for Nepad and Mbeki’s African Renaissance project. The collapse of Mbeki’s "quiet diplomacy" on Zimbabwe has left Nepad and the African Renaissance dream in tatters.

Although the renaissance of the continent cannot depend on events in Zimbabwe alone, Africa’s failure to deal with the crisis has shown its leaders are either unable or unwilling to tackle problems in their own backyard which have a huge bearing on Nepad and other programmes for political and socio-economic renewal. The collapse of "quiet diplomacy" will also be part of Mbeki’s legacy in regional politics.

On a balance sheet therefore, his policy was a failure insofar as it did not change the situation in Zimbabwe.

Whether or not Zimbabwe would be worse off without his intervention, as some would like to claim, is neither here nor there because the point is it did not resolve the situation but left it far worse than it was in 2000 when he started dabbling in the Zimbabwean issue.

But in the end Mbeki’s failure stemmed largely from his inability to realise that in international politics, diplomacy without the backing of credible and deliverable capabilities does not work.

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