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The
end game?
Eddie
Cross
August
14, 2005
This past three
weeks it has been fascinating watching the antics of South Africa
as it tries to do what it undertook to do at the G8 summit in July.
It is quite obvious that as soon as Mbeki got home he communicated
a proposed deal to Mugabe. What that deal was, is anyone's guess
but I would hazard to say that it would have included the following
elements: -
- A soft landing
for Mugabe if he gave up power agreed to retire (with Grace) to
somewhere where his safely and security could be guaranteed.
- A comprehensive
package of assistance to a transitional authority charged with
trying to address the humanitarian and economic crisis in Zimbabwe.
- A "road map"
back to legitimate government in Zimbabwe via talks, a new constitution
and fresh elections.
It is also clear
that Mugabe rejected the deal outright - he knows full well that
such a deal would mean exile for himself and the end of Zanu PF.
But this time he faced a more determined effort by African leaders
to ensure that the roadblocks were removed as soon as possible.
The first indication of this resistance was the flying visit to
Harare by the South African Vice President and the deputy Minister
of Finance. They were instructed to inform his majesty that "no"
was not the answer they were expecting.
The deal was
again made clear and this time the South Africans briefed officials
in the Ministry of Finance and the Reserve Bank. In those discussions
the precise details of Zimbabwe's needs were computed and communicated
to the South Africans who in turn said fine - but these are the
conditions that you must agree to if these needs are to be satisfied:
-
- The conditions
that have led to the international diplomatic isolation of Zimbabwe
must be addressed and rectified.
- A programme
must be negotiated with a broad based coalition of Zimbabwean
interests to get the country back on its feet politically.
- A comprehensive
and sound programme of economic reforms must be agreed which will
allow the economy to recover over time.
Then the game
began on the other side of the Limpopo - the loan deal was announced,
officials denied any conditionality and then confirmed that there
were conditions. Ministers flew to South Africa for discussions
and a "deal" was agreed in principle and a draft MOU sent to the
two Presidents for their consideration. Each successive statement
by the South Africans simply made the water muddier.
On our side
of the Limpopo another game was being played out - "We will never
talk to the MDC," thundered Mugabe at a State function in Harare.
"We will never accept a deal with South Africa that carries any
conditions," stated several Zimbabwe Ministers and Zanu PF spokespersons.
A politician should never use the word "never" and "no" because
politics is the art of the possible and deals are a built in part
of the whole process. The actual deal under consideration was finally
discussed at a Cabinet meeting in Harare and on Friday a more muted
response was sent to Mbeki.
Not to be left
out of the action, the AU then threw its hat into the ring on the
side of straightforward negotiations between the MDC and Zanu PF.
It was not just the demand that caught my attention but also the
manner in which it was carried out. The Chairman of the African
Union, President Obasanjo of Nigeria, appointed former Mozambique
President Chissano as his emissary with the instruction that he
was to get talks going as soon as possible and report progress.
He also sent a personal letter to Mr. Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai
and then issued a press statement from the AU headquarters in Ethiopia
stating that he had done so and that he expected talks to start
soon.
This is unprecedented
pressure from the most powerful organ on the African continent.
Yesterday the State media mused "the government had never ruled
out talks with the MDC" and started to prepare its readers for a
new twist to this sorry saga. The question is "is this the end game"?
Someone called me yesterday and said that he had information that
Mugabe would not last another month. Well, that may or may not be
true - but I know one thing for sure, when this thing starts unraveling
it will unravel fast and will take most of us by surprise.
In the meantime
the crisis here intensifies - inflation is spiraling upwards and
is now almost out of control. There is very little fuel in the market
and it is now 4 months since I last bought fuel in a filling station.
Shortages are the norm - from matches to margarine. In the humanitarian
sphere the first two roomed house units are rolling off the construction
assembly line - at a cost of at least Z$90 million per unit. Very
few can afford them and their main purpose is political at this
stage. They will make very little impact on the needs of the 300
000 families made homeless and destitute by operation "Murambatsvina".
In an effort
to clean up after this shambles the State is moving thousands of
people from the urban areas after a rudimentary screening and dumping
them in rural areas. There are reports of many deaths and deep hardship.
Churches following up their members and trying to meet basic needs
are discovering horrific conditions.
The Zimbabwe
dollar continues to slide in a rather undignified manner at the
Reserve Bank and in the open market it has simply jumped off the
cliff - the local currency now trades at 6 000 to 1 against the
Rand and 35 000 to 1 against the US dollar. The Pound is trading
at 65 000 to 1. While Nero fiddles, Rome burns and there is little
or no sign of preparation for the next summers cropping season -
now just 90 days away.
After a brief
period when maize from South Africa was available in reasonable
quantities, there is again a very severe shortage in markets. Wheat
supplies have been cut dramatically and long queues form wherever
bread is in production. We need that deal, and very soon, if we
are to avoid the catastrophe that others are predicting if nothing
is done about the Zimbabwe crisis.
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