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Only Mugabe can save Zim
*Trevor Ncube, Mail & Guardian
March 16, 2005

http://www.mg.co.za/articlePage.aspx?articleid=199847&area=/insight/insight__comment_and_analysis/

Never since independence has Zimbabwe desperately needed President Robert Mugabe as much as it does now. The country, the ruling party and the opposition are all in chaos and only he can get the nation out of this hole. Zimbabwe faces an acute leadership crisis that only Mugabe has the capacity to resolve, if he so decides.

And this is exactly how Mugabe wanted it to be. He has run Zanu-PF and the country in a manner that renders him indispensable. While he has invited the nation and his colleagues in the party to engage in a debate on who will succeed him, he-s dealt ruthlessly with those showing ambition to take over from him.

The Zanu-PF National Congresses at which this matter should be deliberated have been manipulated to ensure that the people simply rubber stamp what Mugabe and his select inner circle decide. And this is an inner circle that is both scared of and beholden to Mugabe. Thus Mugabe-s leadership of the party and hence the government has never been put to the test, except once when his proposal for a constitutional reform was rejected in a national referendum. Nobody has been bold enough to challenge him in the party structures.

The late Eddison Zvogbo suffered political ostracisation when he positioned himself as Mugabe-s heir apparent. The latest victims of Mugabe-s wrath are Emmerson Mnangagwa, the current speaker of Parliament, and Jonathan Moyo, who, until recently, was Mugabe-s spin doctor. Mnangagwa has been quarantined while Moyo is now a political exile.

Mugabe-s swift and decisive attack against those responsible for the so-called Tsholotsho Declaration will go down as the most fatal blow to the longevity of Zanu-PF. This move sent an unambiguous message to those harbouring presidential ambitions. But the initiative would have resulted in a younger and rejuvenated Zanu-PF ready to take over from Mugabe and the geriatrics around him. This was not to be and those responsible have been punished by suspension or expulsion from the party.

The experience of the abortive Tsholotsho challenge has shown that Mugabe is not prepared to countenance the renewal of the party and has treated this as a personal threat instead. Indeed, Mugabe-s response to Tsholotsho confirms that he is only comfortable when surrounded by subservient personalities. The appointment of Joyce Mujuru as the second vice-president has little to do with a principled gender agenda, but all to do with a strategy to sideline a potent political threat from the young Turks in the party. These challengers, who are now engaged in collective wound-licking after being dealt a fatal political blow by Mugabe, are Mnangagwa, Moyo and the six provincial chair- persons: July Moyo, Daniel Shumba, Jacob Mudenda, Lloyd Siyoka, Themba Ncube and Mike Madiro.

Mugabe-s reaction to the Tsholotsho challenge has resulted in unprecedented divisions within Zanu-PF. The Karanga ethnic group has been purged from the higher echelons of the party. The Karangas, who have featured prominently in the liberation struggle and history of Zanu-PF, have been marginalised and are justifiably peeved. They are seething with anger and don-t have any reason to help Mugabe campaign for the March 31 election. Indeed, there is speculation that some are engaged in low-level campaigning for the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC).

The flip side of this is that the Zezuru clique in Zanu-PF is now fully in control. Mugabe is Zezuru and so are his two deputies. The army commander and the commander of the airforce are both Zezuru. The commissioner of police is also Zezuru. Whether by design or default, this does not augur well and has further weakened the party-s appeal outside Mashonaland.

Correcting this ethnic imbalance will require the skills that Mugabe evidenced after the 1987 Unity Accord, but time might not be on his side. This factor has potential to spiral out of control, with dire consequences for the nation.

The departure of Moyo from Zanu-PF has exposed the bankruptcy of the people around Mugabe. For the first time in the history of the ruling party, Zanu-PF launched its election campaign with only a draft manifesto. It is clear that Zanu-PF-s campaign lacks focus, passion and purpose. Mugabe has no point man this time around and he is obviously too old to run a sleek and energetic election campaign.

Mugabe-s strategy to go on a selective purge of allegedly corrupt politicians within his party has further divided Zanu-PF. The arrest and long detention of the former finance minister Chris Kuruneri, former Zanu-PF Mashonaland West chairperson Phillip Chiyangwa and James Makamba has eaten away at the glue that held Zanu-PF together. Kuruneri is still in detention following his arrest last year.

That political violence is at its lowest level in six years could be due to political incompetence rather than a sudden commitment to a peaceful election. It is either this or Mugabe is convinced that the intimidation and violence of the past six years have sufficiently softened Zimbabweans beyond caring. He could also be confident that the disaster that is the voters- roll will hand him the two-thirds majority he wants.

Whatever the reason for this change of tactic, there is no escaping the fact that this is the most divided Zanu-PF to face a national election.

Mugabe desperately needs a two-thirds majority to allow him to change the Constitution. He could then empower himself to hand-pick a successor without having to call for a fresh presidential election. If he used this window to good effect, he could usher in a fresh leadership, call it a day and save face.

It comes down to this because the MDC is not in better shape either. An insider and opposition member of Parliament recently remarked to me that "only God could save the party from itself". The trade unionists within MDC claim the party as their own and are marginalising other factions such as allied civil society, the student movement and intellectuals. There are also forces ranged against what is perceived as Ndebele influence in the MDC, which has wreaked havoc and paralysed it. Party activists speak softly about these issues and supporters and analysts are reluctant to discuss them openly for fear of further weakening the party. There is widespread concern in and outside the party that the MDC has long lost the passion and drive for a people-s revolution.

The facts on the ground show an ineffective opposition party that lacks vision and strategy. To be fair, years of violence and intimidation, a slew of repressive legislations such as the Public Order and Security Act, the Access to Information and Protection of Privacy Act and the NGO Bill have all conspired to undermine the party-s effectiveness.

MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai-s treason trial, together with numerous other acts of harassment, have further reduced its effectiveness.

But the possibility of an MDC victory at the polls cannot be totally discounted. The fact that Zanu-PF is weak and divided means that it is possible to mobilise the people-s anger against the ruling party to deliver a victory to the MDC. For this to happen, the MDC would have to deal with a rigged voters- roll and the fear caused by years of brutal force and intimidation. This is a tall order, but cannot be completely ruled out. Could this be Zimbabwe-s version of the election that saw the back of Kamuzu Banda in Malawi or Zambia-s election that saw the departure of Kenneth Kaunda?

If this were so, it is a frightening prospect for Zimbabwe. To a large extent, Malawi and Zambia were much worse off after the departure of Banda and Kaunda respectively than during their tenure. Zimbabwe would then be faced with the prospect of a hugely divided and inexperienced group coming in to try and sort out the mess of more than two decades of misrule. This is a tall order and one which the MDC is not yet prepared for.

This is where Mugabe becomes critical for the country, assuming, as is largely expected, Zanu-PF steals the election again. Mugabe could bequeath to Zimbabweans a stable, patriotic and purpose-driven ruling party. He would ensure that the top three of this party are dynamic people who truly understand the challenges facing Zimbabwe. This would be a visionary leadership that would focus on a huge national reconstruction project that would require massive national and foreign resources. Such a leadership would need to have the capacity to build international friendships and alliances that would exploit opportunities necessary for massive reconstruction and development.

As currently constituted and led, both Zanu-PF and the MDC don-t have what it takes to extricate Zimbabwe from its quagmire. Were anything to happen to Mugabe now, with the infighting in Zanu-PF, I fear instability that would be harmful to the nation in the long-term. The possibility of a third way is something worth contemplating, but the time and effort required to put this together could make it a long-term project.

I truly believe that if he set his mind to it, Mugabe could undo some of the damage he has inflicted on Zimbabwe and lay the foundation for a stable political dispensation that would deliver economic development and growth.

*Trevor Ncube is the CE and owner of M&G Media

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