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Word is out - the Zimbabwe military will not allow the opposition to rule
Obert Madondo
October 19, 2004

It's been confirmed: The Zimbabwe opposition will not assume power if it wins the next election. The military will not allow it. This prospect assumed a dark aura of inevitability with the recent surprise declaration from General Constantine Chiwenga, supreme commander of the Zimbabwe Defense Forces (ZDF), the joint command of the Zimbabwe National Army and Air Force of Zimbabwe.

Chiwenga was quoted in the government-run The Herald newspaper: "I'd not hesitate to go on record again on behalf of the Zimbabwe Defense Forces, to disclose that we'd not welcome any change of government that carries the label 'Made in London' and whose sole aim is to defeat the gains of the liberation struggle." The military is speaking for Robert Mugabe here. Mugabe, who has ruled Zimbabwe since independence from British colonial rule in 1980, has consistently labeled the opposition Movement for Democratic Change a front for a West, London in particular, he sees as conspiring to re-colonize Zimbabwe.

The statement's, ". government that carries the label 'Made in London' and whose sole aim is to defeat the gains of the liberation struggle" aims, as we've seen from similar statements in the past, directly at the MDC. And yet we should not be too naïve to believe that: change of government which DOES NOT carry the label 'Made in London' and whose aim is NOT to defeat the gains of the liberation struggle would be acceptable.

The past five years have seen Mugabe entrench his rule through systematic purge of the opposition and independent media. The law proposed by the NGO Bill, presently under debate in the Parliament of Zimbabwe, will hand the same fate to civil society. The military statement, while singling the MDC as the primary target, aims at other democratic forces too. Translated, the statement means change of government, or more appropriately, democracy, is unwelcome in Zimbabwe.

And yet the military is also speaking for itself, reiterating an earlier position. Mugabe faced his stiffest ballot challenge ever from Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of the MDC, during the disputed 2002 presidential election. On the eve of that election, then commander of the Zimbabwe Defense Forces, General Vitalis Zvinavashe declared that the military would not salute a president without liberation war credentials, a veiled reference to Tsvangirai who did not partake in the 60s and 70s war.

These last five years the Zimbabwe crisis has precipitated with no apparent end in sight. Unfortunately, the crisis has defined itself on the international arena mainly in the context of human rights violations, breach of the rule of law, political and electoral reform. The military has virtually eluded deserved invitation into equation. The latest remarks can be viewed as simply another propaganda installment from the regime no longer. Neither can we afford to ignore the obvious: the military is prepared to torpedo democracy even before it takes root. The prospect of a military takeover now presents itself as the most likely answer to the Zimbabwe crisis, at least from Mugabe's perspective.

If Mugabe has made any secret of his willingness to cede power to the military, he's made clear his burgeoning reliance on the military. In yet another of his unreciprocated war of words with British Prime Minister Tony Blair and US President George Bush, Mugabe recently declared readiness to militarily engage anyone, anywhere, any time. Another ill-conceived outburst from a beleaguered madman, yes, but the military outburst can hardly be just 'other' excess of this recklessness. It is a reflection of how far Mugabe is willing to go, only the nemesis presence itself in the form of the hapless people of Zimbabwe.

The military is in a perpetual state of preparedness. In the current year, the military received the third largest vote after only the civil service bill and the one for education, sport and culture. In June, the military reportedly received a shipment of 12 sophisticated fighter jets from China, adding to the MiG-23 ones unveiled in July 2003.

There's fluidity between Mugabe's ZANU PF party and the military cultivated during the liberation struggle and which Mugabe galvanized as party leader and commander in chief. The military is a cornerstone of the Mugabe regime to the extent that the dictatorship is a joint project. Needless to say, Mugabe's regime has derived largely from a cowed and frightened population, for which the military deserves credit. In putting down the rebellion that rocked Zimbabwe's Matabeleland and Midlands provinces in the early eighties, the military butchered an estimated five thousand innocent civilians. Many a public demonstration over the years has been handled by the brute force of the military, or by police employing crude military tactics.

Some thought Mugabe had taken a gamble when he hurtled the Zimbabwe crisis onto the international arena, but he was conspicuously rewarded when the issue bounced into the Southern African region's playground. The Zimbabwe military has leverage there. The Zimbabwe military helped neighboring Mozambique fight the RENAMO rebels in the 80s. When the late President Laurent Kabila of the Democratic Republic of Congo faced a revolt in the late nineties, Zimbabwe send 10 000 troops to prop him up. The Angolan and Namibian militaries partnered Zimbabwe in that project.

By all accounts, Zimbabwe is already steeped in a quasi-military dictatorship. And, we can understand why the military is nervous: Mugabe's crisis of legitimacy is their crisis too. But he compounded the jittery early this year when he announced he'd not seek re-election in the 2008 presidential election. His personal desire to see the opposition annihilated aside, Mugabe has avoided naming a successor, plunging Zanu PF into a succession tug-of-war which is yet to appoint a universally agreeable heir. Analysts suggest the eventual heir would unlikely wield enough stamina to hold the party together in the post-Mugabe era and, mostly importantly, hold off the determined opposition challenge.

Another interpretation for Mugabe's reluctance to vacate office concerns the inevitability of prosecution for corruption and human rights abuses. A perpetuation of ZANU PF rule or a military takeover would guarantee the 80-year old Mugabe protection for the remainder of his life. A military takeover would kill two birds simultaneously: keep ZANU PF in power and bar the opposition. But of course the top military brass has its own skin to protect too. Most would be eligible for trial for corruption and human rights abuses.

However, the military remarks could not have come at a more irksome time for democratic forces in Zimbabwe. Since 2002, the Mugabe regime has passed the Public Order and Security Act (POSA) and Access to Information and Protection of Privacy Act (AIPPA), two laws which virtually criminalize legitimate political activity and curtail media freedom, respectively. The current NGO Bill, if passed into law, would criminalize legitimate NGO activity in the country.

Against the risk of being labeled a pessimist and coward, I will suggest the struggle to oust Mugabe is all but winnable, at least for the moment. I hesitate to contradict reality. In Mugabe's regime, the opposition faces a multi-layered opponent. ZANU PF is an undemocratic party given to chronic manipulation of the ballot. War veterans of Zimbabwe's liberation war and the Green Bombers youth militia are credited for the violence that helped Mugabe to win the 2000 parliamentary and 2002 presidential elections, and the by-elections since 2000. Latest media reports indicate increased harassment of opposition figures by the secret police, the Central Intelligence Organization (CIO). Together with the military, these groups are the oxygen that feeds the Mugabe dictatorship.

No solution has availed itself to the international search for a solution to the crisis, spearheaded by Pretoria, either. Pretoria's preferred strategy of quiet diplomacy has proved a no-show, some critics suggest. But these critics miss the rest of their argument: theregime's real muscle, the military, has been spared due scrutiny.

The Zimbabwe opposition needs a Herculean strategy to confront this monster. Part of that strategy might just be what the opposition has so far avoided: drawing the military into the equation. Why spare any punches when the military has already advertised itself as a determined rival for political power?

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