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Election 2005: Zimbabwe at a crossroads
By Marko Phiri
February 12, 2004

A good number of countries in the poor South and the developed North are holding elections this year and 2005. For the Americans who are busy with the primaries to choose the ("next" if you want to be uncharitable to George W. Bush) US president, the issues at the centre of the campaign include the Iraqi war which the Democrats, alongside the sliding greenback against other major currencies, have put on their agenda as one which will probably be the Bush administration's Achilles' heel that will lose them (Republicans) the presidency. That weapons of mass destruction, which prompted the Iraq invasion, have not been found has become a strong rallying point for the Democrats.

In South Africa, the Inkhatha Freedom Party has warned that the country risks being turned into a one party state with the domination of local politics by the African National Congress. One of the IFP's electoral promises is attracting investors and turning the SA economy, creating jobs, and also fighting crime and graft by public servants. The ANC and the Republicans, as parties forming the governments of South Africa and America respectively, as would be expected, also have their own promises explaining why they deserve to be re-elected. What would be curious about the manifestos of any political party seeking re-election is why they still make the same promises they made when they were first elected into office. Wise voters would ask such questions.

The ANC presidency under Thabo Mbeki will perhaps go down the annuls of history for the controversy it courted in denying Aids patients access to Antiretroviral drugs based on beliefs by Mbeki and his health minister that as far as they know, there is no link between HIV and Aids. Mbeki famously said that he does not know of anybody who died of Aids complications. Would South African voters therefore forgive the ANC for only later agreeing that they could make available to pregnant women who are HIV positive these drugs and save their babies from sure death? Mbeki has also been accused of dragging his feet in dealing with the crisis in Zimbabwe, and it would be interesting to know if this would be an issue with South African voters and thus have profound effect in his reelection bid.

In America, the Bush administration has had to deal with calls by some families of American soldiers and the US public to withdraw troops in Iraq and Afghanistan who are being killed on a daily basis on one hand and its interest to be on the vanguard of the fight against terrorism on the other. While the Iraqis want elections as soon as possible, the Bush administration feels this can only be done in June 2004 when, among other things, a proper voters' roll will be ready. Meanwhile, American soldiers keep falling like dominos under hostile fire from Iraqi insurgents. Bush is presently having a torrid time, much like his British counterpart Tony Blair trying to convince the US Congress that there was indeed justifiable cause to invade Iraq. Blair however seems to have been saved by a report which ostensibly exonerated his government of any wrongdoing and has led to the resignation of two top British Broadcasting Corporation officials. The burden of proof is on the Bush administration to prove that Saddam Hussein was indeed stockpiling weapons of mass destruction. So far none have been found. Could this also have an effect on his presidential hopes as he, like Mbeki, seeks reelection? But we know that in First World politics, issues like these can cost one the presidency based on that the president lied to the people.

In that context of elections in these two countries, one a world superpower and the other a Southern African economic powerhouse, Zimbabwe's own legislative elections in the coming year present another dimension about why this government (thinks it) deserves to be re-elected. It would come as no major surprise that the ruling party will seek re-election, giving it five more years on top of the twenty-five it has ruled after independence from Britain in 1980. The economy has been wrecked to levels not seen even at the height of the liberation war, and any war seen in the African continent some would add.

Commentators say the economy has shrunk by over 1000 percent since 1980 when the Zimbabwean dollar traded on the same footing with the British pound. So it has to be asked what manifesto this government will present as the date toward the legislative poll nears. And this at a time when the regime seems to be lost for solutions about how to make the miraculous economic turn around that will see the creation of jobs among other things. In the past, it was fairly easy for the ZANU PF government to enter the election year knowing that the people here had become complacent about joining the long queues at the polling stations and this based on that there was little if anything offered by other pretenders to the throne. The economy itself, while it started shrinking alarmingly as far back as the early 1990s, was never an issue as the people felt they could ignore the election but still afford to put bread on their tables through the jobs they still had.

However, the coming of a popular opposition meant there was a recognised need for new thinking in the government if the bid to turn around the economy was indeed to become a reality. After all the ruling party had failed in 20 long years. Within that context, it therefore meant that ZANU PF itself had to present its own version of electoral promises which were intended to rally voters behind the ruling party. And while these were predictably not fulfilled after the party's election, the economic malaise went from bad to worse. After the failure of the 2000 referendum where the ruling party got a bitter taste that the people could afford all choose their own destiny, the regime appeared to have been suddenly enlightened about who was behind those efforts to allegedly sabotage the economy and in the process alienate popular government from the people. It was equal to sedition, stoking people's emotions to rise against the government. The interesting development after the February 2000 referendum was the death of apathy when voters thronged polling stations firmly believing it was the only way they could oust this regime. Still the regime itself thought it knew what was best for the electorate.

While voters felt they could do with some new dispensation, the nationalist ruling party countered that it still was relevant to 21st century African politics. The party still had unfinished business which rendered the voters' long winding queues at polling station having been nothing but a waste of time. As the 2005 poll draws near, we have to ask ourselves as Zimbabweans what past elections mean about our future. For starters, we have to contend with the bitter fact that while an election will be held, and at a time when it is generally agreed that a new government will save us all from sure perdition, the nationalist party all the same still emerges triumphant. And this because the party reportedly wins based on some bogus constituencies with large numbers that only serve to frustrate the popular vote of urban populations. Will Zimbabweans then ever have a government of their choice amid such circumstances?

The ruling party itself knows its popularity is at an all time low as seen by its futile bid with the advetorials eulogising the land reform programme with the dirty dancing and all. Surely do such media campaigns change people's perceptions about something they have already condemned as having brought them immense suffering? That can only be firmly believed by a party very much aware that its fortunes will need a huge miracle for them to return to the days when the party would win up to 80 percent of the vote. As 2005 nears, what is it that will give Zimbabweans hope that ZANU PF will appear only in history book and never again as part of their everyday lives? After all, you can trust the party's political and electoral accountants to doctor the figures and claim victory.

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