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Zimbabwean exodus to SA 'lower'
Peter Biles, BBC News
September 25, 2007

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7012368.stm

The number of Zimbabwean migrants in neighbouring South Africa may be a lot lower than recent estimates of between 2m to 3m, a survey reveals.

The study conducted in three suburbs of Johannesburg by a University of South Africa academic says there may be fewer than 1m Zimbabweans in the country.

However, nearly all of the migrants say the political and economic crisis in Zimbabwe caused them to leave.

The report says most of them have no legal status and are undocumented.

Changing pattern

This is not a national survey, but it does paint a picture of the hundreds of thousands of desperate Zimbabweans who have fled their country and come to South Africa.

The researchers questioned about 5,000 Zimbabweans living in the densely-populated areas of Hillbrow, Berea and Yeoville in Johannesburg over a six week period in June and July.

They found there had been a significant increase in migration from Zimbabwe this year, largely because of the economic meltdown and high unemployment.

Most of the Zimbabwean migrants (85%) are under the age of 40, and the majority are earning less than $300 a month, in spite of the fact that many have professional qualifications.

The author of the report, Professor Daniel Makina of the University of South Africa, says the suburbs surveyed are well-known resident areas for migrant Zimbabweans in Johannesburg.

He acknowledges that the study was limited in the area it covered, and says a national survey is required to gain a broader picture.

"Ideally such a survey would need to cover the major cities of the country, farming and mining regions.

"The assumption is that immigrants are likely to go to these areas where chances of getting employment are generally high."

32% of the respondents reported that they were unemployed.

Caution

The survey showed a changing migration pattern of Zimbabweans to South Africa since 2000 when President Robert Mugabe's controversial land programme was launched.

"The present Zimbabwean population in South Africa is estimated to lie between 800,000 and 1m. However this estimate should be viewed with caution, and should only be considered as indicative until confirmed by a national survey," says Prof Makina.

"Most cited reasons for leaving Zimbabwe were political reasons, the economic crisis and employment."

"Political reasons became predominant from 2002 onwards. However, the first half of 2007 has so far seen employment and economic reasons outstripping political reasons," he said.

The most cited form of assistance requested by the Zimbabwean migrants was securing refugee status (57%).

The study concludes that the migrants' lack of legal status impacts on employment, remuneration, crime control, repatriation and skills retention.

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