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Inflation and the economy
Media Monitoring Project Zimbabwe (MMPZ)
Weekly Media Update 2006-19
Monday May 8^th 2006 – Sunday May 14^th 2006

AS Zimbabwe’s inflation for April soared to a record 1 042%, the government media either downplayed the matter or pre-emptied its grave economic implications. None of their reports on the matter viewed the rise as yet another indicator of the authorities failure to halt the continued economic slide.

For example, ZTV (12/5, 8pm) merely carried the development as an announcement by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) without relating it to the already economically burdened Zimbabweans. Worse still, it buried the story in its business segment, preferring to lead with reports on Zimbabwe’s bid for the 2010 African soccer tournament, which it allocated 11 minutes in its bulletin.

And in a bid to downplay the implications of the record rise, the station passively reported economist Andy Hodges as having said the rate "would decline beginning next month". There was no elaboration on his source of optimism.

Such professional dishonesty was even more pronounced in The Sunday Mail (14/5).

It carried oversimplified attempts "to explode the whole myth about (the) inflation figures" in two front-page stories comprising alleged experts’ prediction of a "tumble" in the inflation rate and a supportive editorial, magnifying these views.

Notably, none of the articles scientifically demonstrated how inflation would be tamed. Instead, they were narrowly premised on assumptions that government measures such as the recently launched National Economic Development Priority Programme (NEDPP) would tackle the country’s "challenges".

In addition, neither did the paper show how, by merely increasing producer prices of crops or "targeting" 110 000 hectares of winter wheat cropping, government would stabilise food security, which reportedly accounted for a third of the inflation figures.

Rather, it only quoted an unnamed government official claiming that the country will harvest 1.8 million tonnes of maize this season without saying how the authorities had arrived at the figure.

In fact, while The Sunday Mail reported economists as having assured the nation not to be "alarmed" by the record inflation rate since the economy was set for revival due to "a combination of natural factors" and NEDPP, none of them were actually quoted saying this.

On the contrary, they were mainly cited recommending more measures to arrest economic decline, among them the need to adopt a "realistic" exchange rate, eradicate corruption and generate more foreign currency.

But rather than explore these issues in the context of government policies, the paper simply blamed the economic decline on "drought-induced food shortages" and sanctions imposed by the US and Britain.

Thus, its comment dismissed as a "lie" claims by "alarmists" describing Zimbabwe’s inflation as "catastrophic" for a country not at war, saying it was actually in the "middle of an economic war" with the West.

And to further mask government complicity in the economic decline, the paper then urged Zimbabweans to view the inflation figures differently since they were just "a record of the difficulties that Zimbabwe has experienced in the past few years", adding: "But now Zimbabwe has turned the corner and it will not be long before the smiles return on the faces of (its) resilient citizens".

Notably, there was no evidence presented to support these claims.

But the paper’s coverage of the subject was hardly surprising as it mirrored the slant of 110 stories the official media, (government Press [40] and ZBH [70]) carried on symptoms of economic decline and other related economic matters.

Typically, they either reported the indicators in isolation or rehashed official pronouncements that projected the authorities as taking necessary measures to arrest the decline.

For example, the Chronicle (10/5) made no effort to verify CSO claims that the unemployment rate had fallen to just nine percent, nor its claims that manufacturing had grown by 3%, especially when most companies were reportedly closing shop or scaling down operations. However, the paper noted that government "did not specify the methodology on which they [the figures] were based."

The Herald (12/5) also failed to ask Economic Development Deputy Minister Samuel Undenge to list the "behind the scenes" progress he claimed NEDPP had achieved.

Likewise, Spot FM (10/5, 8pm) unquestioningly reported Industry Minister Obert Mpofu announcing that government was formulating a policy that would "boost foreign currency inflows by assisting companies to add value to their products before exporting."

There was no detail on the policy.

The lack of critical analysis in the official media was reflected by their over-reliance on officials’ statements as shown in Figs 1 and 2.

Fig. 1 Voice distribution in government papers

Fig. 2 Voice distribution on ZBH

Notably, most members of the public were quoted expressing their concerns over the rising cost of living.

By comparison, the private media remained forthright in their discussion of the country’s economic slide, which they categorically blamed on government’s poor policies.

SW Radio Africa (12/5), for example, reported analysts pointing out that the rising inflation rate was due to government’s "mismanagement" of the economy "on a spectacular scale". It also noted that the hyperinflationary environment had resulted in a dramatic drop in the country’s industrial capacity.

The Daily Mirror (13/5) raised similar views. But even so, the paper failed to question the credibility of the CSO absurd statistics on unemployment, a matter only raised by the Zimbabwe Independent (12/5) and The Standard (14/5).

The Standard, for example, noted that the CSO claims that the country’s unemployment rate was 9% sharply contrasted with a recent report by the Confederation of Zimbabwe Industries showing that the manufacturing sector had lost 42 percent of its labour force in 2004-2005.

Besides, the private Press also highlighted the authorities’ inconsistent policies as illustrated by the way the Reserve Bank had, within a week, made policy reversals on Treasury Bills, likely to impact negatively on the financial sector.

Citing a memo from the Bankers Association of Zimbabwe to the central bank on the matter, the Independent reported that the move "will, if not addressed urgently, precipitate bank failures", especially the country’s top five banks as it will erode their capital.

The stories were part of the 51 reports that the private media (private Press [42] and private stations [9]) carried highlighting worsening economic decay, including the galloping cost of living and government’s ballooning domestic debt, which the Independent put at $15.7 trillion.

In fact, Studio 7 (9/5) revealed that the situation was so bad that the central bank was mulling introducing a $100,000 note next month. Analyst John Robertson told the station that the authorities should instead print $500,000 and $1m bills to avoid cash shortages and "wasting lots of paper."

The private media’s analytical stance was reflected by their diverse sourcing pattern as shown by the private papers’ voice distribution. See Fig 3.

Fig. 3 Voice distribution in the private Press

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