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The rains and sunshine journalism
Media Monitoring Project Zimbabwe (MMPZ)
Weekly Media Update 2006-1
Monday January 2^nd 2006- Sunday January 8^th 2006

AS the New Year opened, the government media carried 74 stories (ZBH [66] and official Press [8]) that projected a positive economic outlook for 2006. These media simplistically premised their forecasts on the current rains, which they claimed would boost the country’s agricultural production and in turn resuscitate the ailing economy.

In fact, The Sunday Mail (1/1) story, Zim poised for major recovery, set the tone for this unproven optimism when it passively quoted religious, political and business leaders "tipping" Zimbabwe to overcome economic "challenges" it faced in the just-ended year on the basis of "prospects of good rains".

ZTV (2/1, 8pm) followed suit. It claimed that "most people" were "confident that the country will go forward" saying "if the current rains continue across the country the economy has the ability to grow and stabilise". However, none of the nine individuals that were quoted said this. Instead, they simply highlighted economic problems besetting the country and implored government to draw up effective measures to address the crisis in 2006.

To drown these concerns, the station reported "stakeholders in the business sector" as having expressed optimism that the "convergence of exchange rates expected this year will help stabilise the economy", adding that the "unbundling of the National Railways of Zimbabwe into strategic business units is expected to revive trade and improve transportation of goods for industry".

ZANU PF MPs Savious Kasukuwere and Walter Mzembi and MDC legislator Timothy Mubhawu were then reported as having said the "spirit of resilience displayed by Zimbabweans in 2005" should "be nurtured as prospects are high that 2006 will be a better year".

But while the government media based their hopes for a better year on the rains, they avoided testing their projections against the chaos they reported in the agricultural sector characterised by, among other problems, shortages of inputs, such as fertiliser (Chronicle 4/1 and Herald 6/1), and the under-utilisation of land in government’s redistributed farms (The Sunday Mail 8/1).

ZTV (2/1, 8pm), for example, glossed over the matter saying "good rains, business and farming incentives introduced in the monetary policy and budget estimates for 2006 as well as concerted efforts by all sectors to maintain peace, tranquillity and unity will hopefully bring about the much yearned-for economic stability in Zimbabwe".

ZBH radio stations (2/1, 8pm) carried similar reports.

The government media’s eagerness to paint a rosy picture of the New Year resulted in The Herald (4/1) exaggerating the purported economic benefits accrued by Zimbabweans following government’s reduction of Value Added Tax (VAT) from 17.5 percent to 15 percent this January.

Rather than fully analyse the margins of the VAT cutback in relation to the country’s inflation rate of more than 500 percent, the paper seemed content to express how the price cuts (averaging around $4 000) have been "welcomed" by consumers and how these "will go a long way" in cushioning them from the harsh economic climate.

The Chronicle of the same day even claimed that the 2.5 percent reduction in VAT "would also reduce the price of the family basket, which the Consumer Council of Zimbabwe said had risen to $16.6 million by (last) December up from $1.7 million in January 2005". The rest of the six stories these papers carried on Zimbabwe’s economic prospects for 2006 were similarly structured.

However, the official media’s claims contradicted the economic situation on the ground as reflected in the 60 stories (government Press [23] and ZBH [37]) they carried highlighting continued economic decline. These included massive price hikes in goods and services, shortages of farming inputs and continued power and water cuts.

Notably, while the government papers generally discussed these economic developments and analysed their negative impact on Zimbabweans, they did not link them to their claims of a better 2006.

Although the official media’s sourcing pattern appeared diversified as shown in Figs. 1 and 2, most of the business and alternative voices echoed government predictions of an economically brighter 2006. Most of the ordinary people were generally quoted complaining about the galloping cost of living.

Fig 1 Voice distribution on ZBH

Fig 2 Voice distribution in the government Press

There were no confusing signals on the New Year’s prospects in the private media. Almost all their 32 stories (private Press [21] and private radios [11]) forecast a gloomy 2006 on the strength of independent commentators’ observations that the country’s economic slide would continue despite the rains as government’s skewed economic policies remained intact.

For example, Studio 7 (2/1) noted that government’s approval of 300% price hikes on essential commodities harbingered a "difficult year ahead".

The Financial Gazette (5/1) reported the business community describing the economic situation as "not looking good", predicting inflation to breach the 600% mark and the foreign currency interbank exchange rate to rise to $100 000 against the US dollar because government "has not addressed the fundamentals that push inflation…"

The paper quoted the Zimbabwe National Chamber of Commerce (ZNCC) president Luxon Zembe dismissing the impression created in the official media that rains would be the tonic for Zimbabwe’s economic recovery saying even though the country had so far received normal rainfall, this would not translate into a "bumper harvest" because of the shortage of inputs and draught power.

The Zimbabwe Independent (6/1), The Standard and Sunday Mirror (8/1) all concurred saying the current abundant rains was no basis for granting 2006 a clean bill of economic health.

The Independent quoted economist Andy Hodges arguing that a successful agricultural season was not only measured by good rains but by "putting more land under cultivation and supplying inputs like seed and fertiliser on time".

The private media’s sourcing was generally balanced as reflected by the private Press’ voice distribution. See Fig 3.

Fig 3. Voice distribution in the private Press

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