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Crop and food security assessment mission to Zimbabwe
Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) and World Food Programme (WFP)
August 09, 2010

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Overview

Following a period of unfavourable rainfall distribution in December and January, particularly in the eastern and central parts of country, the Government of Zimbabwe requested a FAO and WFP independent evaluation. In response, a joint FAO/WFP Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission (CFSAM) visited the country between 14-18 June 2010, to conduct a condensed assessment of the 2009/10 cereal production and evaluate the overall food security situation to determine the food import requirement, including food assistance needs, for the current marketing year 2010/11 (April/March). In consideration of the technical support FAO and WFP provided to the Government for the First and the Second Round Crop and Livestock Assessments and the timing of the Mission, it was decided that a condensed CFSAM would be most appropriate.

During the course of the week the Mission received the full support and cooperation of the Ministry of Agriculture, Mechanization and Irrigation Development (MAMID), and benefited from valuable contributions and discussions with:

• FAO Representative and technical staff
• WFP's Country Director and other staff
• World Bank
• UNICEF
• FEWSNet
• Grain Marketing Board (GMB)
• ZIMSTAT (formerly known as the Central Statistics Office)
• Ministry of Health and Child Welfare
• Ministry of Finance
• Zimbabwe Farmers Union (ZFU)
• Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ)
• Millers/Traders (namely National Foods and Blue Ribbon Foods)
• Zimbabwe Vulnerability Assessment Committee (ZimVAC)

The Mission based their assessment of national cereal production on the Second Round Crop and Livestock Assessment, conducted between 13 and 25 March 2010 by the Government and partner organizations, including FAO, WFP, FEWSNet and OCHA, and discussion with key institutions. Hence, only an evaluation and review of the methodology and production estimates were made by the Mission, and consequently no field assessments were conducted. Despite unevenly distributed precipitation in southern and eastern areas, an extensive input support programme by Government and partners contributed to an increase in maize production for the 2009/10 agricultural season by 7 percent, to 1.35 million tonnes. Moreover the programme supported an increase in the planted area to an historical high of 1.8 million hectares, reflecting a rise of 20 percent over last year's level. However, national yields declined, primarily on account of the mid-season dry spell, with only A2 commercial farms recording an increase in productivity. National cereal requirements for food and non-food use for the 2010/11 marketing year are forecast at just over 2 million tonnes, against national availability of 1.66 million tonnes resulting in a net import requirement of 428 000 tonnes. The vulnerability assessment indicates 111 000 tonnes of food (cereal) assistance will be required. Assuming that is the amount for which there is no effective demand (i.e. lack of purchasing power by the vulnerable population), the rest of the demand can be considered as an effective demand. Given that the grain market is fully liberalized and private traders/millers/importers are free to import commercially, it is anticipated that commercial imports will cover the remaining deficit. In regards to cash crops, a decline in cotton and soya bean producer prices last season, had led to a decline in the area planted for these crops, along with sugar beans and sunflower, with many farmers opting to switch to maize production - which also partly accounts for an increase in planted area under maize.

Furthermore, the liberalisation of the economy and adoption of a multi-currency regime has for the time being significantly contributed to improving and stabilising the economic conditions, as well as increasing the supply of goods into the country since the end of 2008. The liberalisation of the grain market has enhanced the importance of commercial imports in meeting the national cereal requirements. However, limited capital inflows, lack of liquidity and high interests for short-term loans acts as constraints for increased investment in the farming sector and an expansion of commercial imports. This has had negative impact on grain processing, as well resulting in many millers operating merely at 10-30 percent of their total capacity.

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