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Crop and food security assessment mission to Zimbabwe
Food
and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) and World Food Programme (WFP)
June 22, 2009
http://www.fao.org/docrep/011/ai483e/ai483e00.htm
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Mission
Highlights
- National
production of maize in 2009 is estimated at 1.14 million tonnes,
an increase of 130 percent on that of the record low harvest of
2008. Total domestic cereal availability for 2009/10 is estimated
to be 1.39 million tonnes. This includes a forecast production
of winter-season wheat of about 12 000 tonnes, the lowest ever
and dramatically down from 242 000 tonnes in 2006. Wheat farming
is plagued with the high cost of production relative to returns
(especially non-payment for last year's crop), the shortage
of financial liquidity, and the uncertainty of electricity supply
for irrigation.
- Generally
well-distributed rainfall ensured significantly better cereal
production this year than last, in spite of the fact that inputs
such as improved seeds, fertilizer, fuel and draught power were
in short supply and expensive.
- With the
total utilization of cereals at about 2.07 million tonnes including
1.74 million tonnes for direct human consumption for the revised
projected population of 11 million, the resulting cereal import
requirement is estimated at 680 000 tonnes, of which the maize
deficit accounts for about 70 percent.
- Cotton and
tobacco production figures are similar to those of last year,
with higher yields from smaller areas. Groundnut, soybeans, sugar
beans and sunflower production all showed significant increases
compared with last year.
- The annual
rate of inflation has come down from the estimated 56 million
percent (the World Bank calculation) in 2008, a global historical
record high, in 2008 to zero (or even negative level) since the
country abandoned its currency in March 2009 and adopted the US
Dollar and South African Rand as legal currencies in March 2009.
- The Government
has also announced grain market reform including free movement
and buying and selling of grain in the country, removal of import
duties (until June) and designation of the government parastatal,
GMB, as a buyer of last resort to maintain a floor price. This
has filled the shops with products (mostly from South Africa)
and reduced prices. For example, the retail price of maize in
major cities has come down from nearly USD 1.2/kg in October-November
2008 to about USD 0.20/kg in May. The full impact of the reform
on the next season's production potential is yet to be seen
especially in light of low financial liquidity and other problems
of economic transition.
- Commercial
imports are restricted by financial liquidity constraints and
are difficult to forecast during the current marketing year. It
is conceivable that total commercial imports, assuming no import
restrictions, and sufficient financing would be around 500 000
tonnes of cereals including some 330 000 tonnes of maize to satisfy
the domestic demand. This would still leave an uncovered deficit
of about 180 000 tonnes of all cereals.
- Given the
uncertainty of imports in the new economic environment the Mission
recommends that the national cereal balance sheet be reviewed
and updated periodically; The Food Security Technical Working
Group may perform this task with contributions from relevant stakeholders.
In any case, the Government should monitor the targets and the
progress of private sector imports and be ready to carry out its
own imports to ensure food security across the country.
- Transitory
food insecurity among communal farmers is expected across the
country during 2009-10 but especially in Mashonaland East, Masvingo
and Manicaland.
- The Mission
provisionally estimates that a total of 2.8 million people in
rural and urban areas will be food insecure during the 2009/10
marketing year and will require food assistance amounting to some
228 000 tonnes (including 190 000 tonnes of cereals).
- These estimates
need to be revised on the basis of the planned August 2009 ZimVAC
assessment, which will define the nature and level of assistance
required to mitigate a situation that is expected to worsen from
October 2009 to March 2010.
- In addition
to food assistance, the Mission also recommends emergency assistance
by the Government and the international community in acquiring
fertilizer and quality seed for delivery in September 2009, and
dipping chemicals for the control of tick-borne livestock diseases.
- To deal
with the problems of an economy in transition and with chronic
food shortages, it is recommended that the international community
and the Government enter into a dialogue to mobilize economic
assistance. Sustainable food production in Zimbabwe would require
re-establishment of its domestic seed industry, promotion of conservation
agriculture, rehabilitation of irrigation facilities, investment
in farm mechanization and improvement in the Agricultural Extension
Service.
1. OVERVIEW
Zimbabwe faced
uncontrollable and ever-escalating hyperinflation, a sustained period
of negative economic growth, massive devaluation of the currency,
reduced productive capacity with significant de-industrialization
and resulting widespread poverty and food shortages during much
of the last year. Against this backdrop a joint FAO/WFP Crop and
Food Security Assessment Mission (CFSAM) was requested by the Government.
The Mission visited the country from 24 April to 15 May 2009 to
carry out an independent assessment of the 2009 production of the
main cereals, assess the overall food security situation and determine
the food import requirement, including food assistance needs, for
the current marketing year 2009/10 (April/March). The primary purpose
of a CFSAM is to provide an accurate picture of the extent and severity
of crisis-induced food insecurity, existing or expected, in the
country (and in specific areas) so that timely and appropriate actions
can be taken by the government and the international community to
minimize the impact of the crisis on affected populations.
In Harare, the
Mission held meetings with the Ministry of Agriculture, Mechanization
and Irrigation Development (MAMID), UNDP Resident Coordinator, FAO
Representative and FAO technical staff, WFP's Country Director
and other staff, World Bank, UNICEF, IOM, UNICEF, Department of
Social Welfare (Ministry of Labour and Social Welfare), Grain Marketing
Board (GMB), Zimbabwe Meteorological Department, Central Statistics
Office (CSO), Ministry of Health and Child Welfare, Zimbabwe Food
and Nutrition Council (ZFNC), Commercial Farmers Union (CFU), Zimbabwe
Farmers Union (ZFU), Millers/Traders (namely, National Foods, Blue
Ribbon Foods), the Zimbabwe Fertilizer Company (ZFC), Seed Co, the
Zimbabwe Vulnerability Assessment Committee (ZimVAC) and some of
the international and national NGOs. The Mission benefited from
valuable inputs from these meetings.
In the field,
the Mission was assisted and guided by senior specialists from the
Department of Agricultural Technical and Extension Services (Agritex)
and other staff of MAMID, the GMB, the Department of Meteorology
and the Ministry of Labour and Social Welfare, along with four FAO
and two WFP staff members from the country office. Four observers
- USAID, FEWSNet, EU and DfID - participated in the main discussions
and the first two in the field visits. The Mission divided itself
into four teams, travelled to all eight rural provinces, and covered
a total of 28 out of the country's 58 rural districts over
a 9 day period. The districts to be visited were selected using
a range of criteria including the overall productivity, agro-ecological
zones, and livelihood/vulnerability considerations. These were similar
to the districts visited by the 2008 CFSAM. In each province and
district, the teams met with administrative authorities including
the Governor of the Province and Agritex officials. After these
meetings, the teams travelled to different wards of the selected
district covering the various farming sectors (communal, A1, A2,
Old Resettlement, Small Scale Commercial and Large Scale Commercial).
Brief observations on urban and peri-urban plots of crops in Harare
and Bulawayo, visits to rural/local markets and interviews with
traders were conducted. The Mission also relied heavily on the remote
sensing analysis and data on rainfall (in particular the satellite-based
dekadal estimated rainfall for the current season, the last season
and the long-term average for each district), vegetation indices
(NDVIs) and various interim assessment reports.
The Mission
had access to Agritex's own post-planting area assessment
carried out in the first week of February (Round 1) and the pre-harvest
crop assessment carried out during the second week of April (Round
2). This information was used as the basis for verification. Livestock
conditions were observed and investigated en route and in the districts
visited. Field assessments were made regarding households'
food production, food security, vulnerability, coping mechanisms
and social welfare programmes following the "triangulation"
methodology described in the revised CFSAM Guidelines1. The crop
production and vulnerability situations this year were compared
with previous years to get a relative historical perspective. Data
and information received from secondary sources were reviewed against
data, information and insights obtained during field visits in arriving
at the estimates made by the Mission.
The Mission
used national, provincial and district production data and combined
this with information obtained from household farmer's interviews
and community focus-group discussions. Potential income from cash
crop and livestock production/sales was used to draw conclusions
about the status of food security and the corresponding impacts
of the production failure.
The results
of this Mission are described in the following sections and are
summarised in the Highlights above.
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