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Southern Africa Food Security outlook - Oct - Mar 2009
Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET)
November 20, 2008

http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/rwb.nsf/db900SID/YSAR-7LKRSE?OpenDocument&rc=1&cc=zwe

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This regional Food Security Outlook presents an overview of current food security conditions (October - December 2008) and projects food security conditions according to the most likely and worst case scenarios for January - March 2009. This report summarizes the results of the outlook process over the same period for Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. The months covered in the outlook include both the hunger season when food availability and access, and therefore food security conditions, are at their lowest, as well as the agricultural season. This report highlights what FEWS NET believes are the major threats to food security in monitored countries over this period.

Current food security conditions remain stable following the May/June harvests in most parts of the region that had favorable crop growing conditions in the 2007/08 season. Production was above the past five-year average in most countries (with the exception of Lesotho, Swaziland, and Zimbabwe) and at the regional level was above levels achieved last year. Except for South Africa, which recorded a bumper crop, the prospect of excellent harvests elsewhere was compromised by excessive rains in December and January that led to flooding in some parts, coupled with a mid season dry spell in February and March. Where there were localized crop failures, households are already moderately food insecure.

The most likely regional food security scenario through March 2009 will see levels of food security stable of in areas now facing moderate food insecurity. More significant decline is expected from October - December. The scenario however also assumes that scaled up (and well resourced) food relief programs will ameliorate conditions in affected areas, thus reducing the rates of deterioration in food insecurity. This is particularly important in Zimbabwe, where humanitarian interventions are being scaled up following the lifting of the suspension on NGO operations. It is also assumed that food availability will improve in the latter part of the outlook period with the green harvests. Favorable crop production prospects are based on the regional seasonal forecast, which indicates a normal to above normal rainfall season in most parts of the region under review, especially during the October - December period. Eastern Zimbabwe and central and southern Mozambique are likely to face normal to below normal rainfall in the latter part, thus delaying the green harvest and the gradual easing of food availability that normally occurs towards the end of the period.

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