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8
million at risk of food insecurity: Southern Africa food security
update
Fewsnet
August 25, 2008
http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/rwb.nsf/db900sid/RMOI-7HV364?OpenDocument
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Recently concluded
vulnerability assessments indicate that while a majority of households
in southern Africa will have adequate food over this consumption
season, widespread acute and chronic food insecurity remains a real
concern in parts of most countries where these assessments have
been conducted. Currently, over 8 million people in seven countries
(Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Swaziland, Zambia, and Zimbabwe)
are at risk of food insecurity between now and March 2009 and require
some kind of assistance. Numbers are expected to peak over the November
to February hunger season.
While Mozambique,
Zambia, and Malawi produced adequate amounts of cereals to cover
domestic needs, pockets of food insecurity exist in localized areas
of the countries where the 2007/08 crop growing season was characterized
by heavy rains that resulted in flooding, loss of crops, and disruption
of livelihoods, followed by an end of season dry spell in February
and March. In addition, households in parts of Lesotho, Swaziland,
and Namibia, countries that did not produce enough to cover domestic
needs, are already experiencing some degree of food insecurity due
to below average harvests as a result of excessive rains and flooding,
prolonged dry spells, and an early cessation of rains. In Tanzania,
localized food shortages have prompted the VAC to plan for a rapid
assessment in August to ascertain numbers of those who may require
emergency assistance until the next harvests in April 2009.
Zimbabwe faces
the highest and most severe levels of food insecurity largely in
the region as a result of adverse crop growing conditions in the
2007/08 cropping season and the country's continuing economic
decline. A joint FAO/WFP crop and food supply assessment mission
(CFSAM) in May estimated that 2 million people will be food insecure
from July through September 2008 in both urban a rural areas. This
number is expected to peak at about 5.1 from January to March 2009.
The results of the ongoing VAC food security assessments will inform
updated estimates.
Apart from the
impacts of shocks such as floods, droughts, and early cessation
of rains, the VAC assessments have underscored that many of the
region's households have become increasingly vulnerable to
food insecurity and their livelihoods more fragile following multi-year
shocks, erosion of their asset base, and deepening poverty levels
due to general decline in national economic growth. This has increased
the numbers of chronically food insecure and those "at risk"
of food insecurity from one consumption year to the next.
The regional
cereal balance indicates an exportable maize surplus that is sufficient
to cover the projected shortfalls in the region's deficit
countries, which include Zimbabwe, South Africa's SACU partners
(Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, and Swaziland), and Tanzania. Most
of these countries will be looking to South Africa for the majority
of their import requirements. At the current level (about 2.6 million
MT); South Africa's exportable surplus could fully cover the
region's import requirements.
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