Back to Index

Widespread food security crisis may be moderated by imports, food aid and a good 2007/08 season
Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWSNET)
October 10, 2007

http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/RWB.NSF/db900SID/EVOD-77UJDX?OpenDocument&rc=1&cc=zwe

Zimbabwe faces a widespread and severe food security crisis during this year's hunger period (October 2007 to March 2008) if the government fails to meet its cereal import targets or humanitarian assistance is delayed. Over 1 million people in urban areas are food insecure. Urban populations remain among the most food insecure and most vulnerable in the country. The June 2007 FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission (CFSAM) to Zimbabwe estimated that about 2.3 million rural Zimbabweans would be food insecure at this time. By the peak of the hunger period (January to March 2008), this figure will rise to about 3 million.

Poor crop production in the 2006/07 agricultural season left significant shortages of staple foods in the south and west of the country. Price controls and other restrictions have discouraged production and marketing of essential food items like maize meal, which have been scarce in urban areas since July 2007.

However, the progress of food imports this year and the current levels of international commitment to food aid programs, if maintained over the next 6 months, will mitigate the risk of extreme food insecurity. The Zimbabwe Vulnerability Assessment Committee (ZimVAC) plans to conduct a rural food security assessment at the beginning of the peak hunger period to further inform the food assistance programs of both government and humanitarian agencies.

Despite worrisome levels of food insecurity in urban areas levels of on-going or planned food assistance are relatively low in this sector. Most basic goods and staple foods have been very scarce since the government imposed price controls in June 2007. Given that the annual inflation rate had already exceeded 7,500 percent in July, the government's recent upward revision of prices has had little effect in encouraging producers and retailers to increase commodity supply onto the market. Supplies of the controlled commodities to formal markets continue to be limited and sporadic. Some of these items can be found on the parallel market for at least twice the controlled price, but a strong police presence disrupts access to these markets, which remain illegal. Secondary trading of goods initially bought at controlled prices has created some income generating opportunities for a significant number of people, including the urban poor who have the time to queue for the goods when they are delivered to the formal market.

Zimbabwe requires imports of over one million MT of cereals to meet its consumption requirements for the 2007/08 marketing year. The flow of maize from Malawi . a surplus producer this year and now Zimbabwe's principal supplier . has been on target. However, Zimbabwe's Grain Marketing Board (GMB) faces several constraints, including transport and other logistical challenges that will impede the delivery of domestic and imported maize to where it is needed. Already, there is adequate food in the country to meet current demand, but imports and local surpluses have not been moving to deficit areas as quickly as needed.

Both the humanitarian organizations and the government have independent plans to provide food assistance to the same 3 million rural Zimbabweans identified by the CFSAM as being food insecure during the hunger period. It is not clear yet how the two major food assistance programs will relate to each other. A higher degree of coordination among these and other food assistance plans is necessary to ensure the effective use of available resources.

Potentially good 2007/08 rainfall and main agricultural seasons (October 2007-March 2008) may help mitigate the impact of the food crisis. The Zimbabwe Meteorological Services has forecast normal to above normal rains for the season. For the first time since 2003, the country has adequate stocks of maize seed. The government, seed companies and farmers need to agree quickly on this season's seed prices to ensure the timely release of the maize seed onto the market. Good rains will increase the demand for agricultural labor, providing rural households with more income opportunities than they have had in recent years. Even with the limited supply of fertilizers, chemicals and fuel, the small-scale farmers who comprise the majority of Zimbabwe's rural population have a good chance for a normal crop.

Please credit www.kubatana.net if you make use of material from this website. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License unless stated otherwise.

TOP