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Zimbabwe Food Security Outlook Oct 2007 to Mar 2008
Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWSNET)
September 25, 2007

http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/RWB.NSF/db900SID/EVOD-77DJHN?OpenDocument&rc=1&cc=zwe

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Executive summary

- Food security has deteriorated in most of the country, particularly in the southern and western areas worst affected by drought during the 2006/07 agricultural season (Figure 1). In addition to drought, hyperinflation, price controls, fuel shortages, and economic collapse underlie Zimbabwe's worsening food crisis.

- Over the next six months, the most likely food security scenario is a worsening of the crisis, affecting increasing numbers of people through the hunger season (October 2007 to March 2008). But, the combination of government imports, international food aid and a normal 2008 agricultural season will likely mitigate the worst consequences of the crisis, preventing widespread starvation.

- However, if the government is unable to address the national food deficit and food aid deliveries are limited, a worst case scenario with more widespread and extreme food insecurity, affecting a large proportion of rural and urban populations of the country will quickly emerge.

Current food security situation

A combination of drought, lack of irrigation, seeds and other inputs, spare parts for machinery and fuel resulted in an inadequate and poor harvest from the main 2006/07 agricultural season. This harvest provided only 45 percent of Zimbabwe¡¯s cereal needs, leaving the country with an import requirement of over 610,000 MT. Every province in the country is expected to face a cereal deficit this year. The worst-affected provinces are the traditionally grain-deficit provinces of Matabeleland and Masvingo ¨C both hard hit by drought. Most households in these areas have run out of their own food stocks and are already reliant on inadequate and erratic maize supplies through the Grain Marketing Board (GMB), the government parastatal with a monopoly on maize sales and distribution.

The Government of Zimbabwe (GoZ), as well as humanitarian organizations are making efforts to close this cereal gap. A contract of 400,000 metric tons (MT) of maize has been secured with the Government of Malawi. About 29 percent of this had been delivered by late August 2007. Humanitarian organizations also plan to import 352,000 MT of food. While so far only six percent of this humanitarian food aid has been delivered, the bulk of it is expected to arrive between September and December 2007. With these food delivery mechanisms, the country still faces a cereal gap of 111,135 MT, which, given the GoZ¡¯s past performance, is likely to be filled ¨C especially since there are elections in early 2008.

Hyperinflation continues to erode the purchasing power of most households in urban and rural areas, putting food prices out of reach for most households. In April 2007, inflation stood at over 3,700 percent; by the end of June 2007 it was about 7,250 percent and in July it had reached 7,630 percent. Economists predict that the rate of inflation will continue to rise for the rest of the year.

Until July 2007, maize grain prices on the open market and in farmer']to']farmer transactions increased gradually, but in July maize prices shot up because of increased demand and diminished supply. In August 2007, the highest maize prices were recorded in Matebeland, Masvingo and Manicaland provinces, where supplies of maize were most limited.

Urban populations continue to face higher prices than rural populations. Unlike Harare, which is in close proximity to surplus supply areas, the cities of Bulawayo, Hwange, Kariba and Tsholosho recorded dramatic increases in open market maize grain prices between June and August 2007. Maize prices rose by between 20 and 33 times during this period in these urban areas, compared to a national average maize price increase of just 8 percent.
In an attempt to slow inflation, the GoZ implemented price controls on an array of basic commodities in June 2007. The result was a dramatic decline in food availability and access, particularly in urban areas. Prior to the price controls, most basic goods, including maize meal, were available on formal and parallel markets, albeit at exorbitant and rapidly rising prices. Since the implementation of the June price controls, however, markets throughout the country have experienced serious shortages of basic commodities, including bread, maize meal, cooking oil, rice, beef, chicken and milk. These shortages have been most profound in urban markets, where sporadic deliveries of basic goods are met with long lines, and not everyone makes it into stores before stocks run out.

Price controls have significantly reduced, and, in some cases, wiped out profit margins for producers of the controlled products, making these enterprises nonviable. While the GoZ made some upward revisions of controlled prices in August 2007, these revisions have not increased supplies of the targeted commodities.

Shortages of basic commodities are having the biggest impact on the poor, who, because of their limited purchasing power, are forced to make frequent purchases of smaller amounts of food, and are not able to buy in bulk when commodities become available. While basic goods can still be found on the parallel markets at a substantially higher cost, these markets are constantly disrupted by more frequent police raids. Not only is the food crisis in urban areas one of access, it has now become an availability crisis as well.

Protracted economic decline has taken its toll on the country's infrastructure. The national road network continues to deteriorate. Water and electricity supply cuts are increasingly frequent, with some sections of major cities like Harare and Bulawayo going for more than one week without electricity or water.

Consequently, the use of wood for fuel and untreated water collected from makeshift wells has increased. Issues such as uncollected refuse, burst sewage pipes and untreated sewage flowing in the open in densely populated residential areas are increasingly common in all the major urban areas of Zimbabwe. As a result, the risk of serious health epidemics is increasing to alarming levels.

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