Back to Index

Crop and food supply assessment mission to Zimbabwe
Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) and World Food Programme (WFP)
June 05, 2007

http://www.fao.org/docrep/010/10127e/10127e00.htm

Download this document
- Acrobat PDF version (537KB)
If you do not have the free Acrobat reader on your computer, download it from the Adobe website by clicking here.

Mission Highlights

This year, the combined impacts of adverse weather and severe economic constraints in Zimbabwe have induced hardship and food insecurity among both rural and urban populations, especially in areas where the current season's production losses are greatest.

National cereal production in 2007 is estimated to be 44 percent down on last year's government estimate, resulting in a significant national food gap. Those who lost their crops due to extended dry periods and below-normal rainfall in different parts of the country will be particularly affected.

The Mission estimates a harvest of 799 000 tonnes of maize and 126 000 tonnes of small grains for the main cropping season of 2006/07. Maize output is estimated to be 46 percent lower than last year and 13 percent lower than the year before. Primary factors responsible for these declines, in addition to adverse weather, were shortages of key inputs, deteriorating infrastructure, especially for irrigation, and most importantly, financially unprofitable prices for most of the government controlled crops.

A structural decline in national agricultural production over the last 6-7 years is also due to the inability by newly settled farmers to utilize all the prime land allocated to them. The settlement farmers were able to cultivate only about 30 to 55 percent of their total arable land owing to shortages of tractor/draught power, fuel, and fertilizers, under-investment in infrastructure/ improvements, lack of incentive because of price controls, and absenteeism on the part of settler beneficiaries. Following the land reform programme, based on CSO data, the large-scale commercial sector now produces less than one-tenth of the maize that it produced in the 1990s. Large-scale commercial maize production now accounts for less than 5 percent of the country's total maize production.

Based on the Mission's estimates, domestic availability of cereals for consumption in 2007/08 is about 1.287 million tonnes, and the total utilization of cereals 2.339 million tonnes including 1.928 million tonnes for direct human consumption using the GOZ/CSO projected population of 11.83 million. The resulting cereal import requirement is estimated at 1.052 million tonnes, of which maize deficit accounts for 813 000 tonnes.

Hyperinflation has surpassed 3 700 percent mark and has drastically reduced the purchasing power of households, greatly limiting access to available supplies for low- and middle-income and vulnerable people. In parallel, the ever-plummeting exchange rate of the local currency in parallel markets has caused shortages of foreign currency and reduced the country's ability to import fuel, electricity and other capital goods.

Given the acute shortage of foreign exchange, the dwindling export base, and current very high prices for maize in the region, the Mission estimates that total commercial cereal imports will amount to 700 000 tonnes, leaving an uncovered deficit of 352 000 tonnes of maize. Commercial imports include 400 000 tonnes maize which have already been contracted from Malawi, 217 000 tonnes of wheat, 22 000 tonnes of rice, and an additional 61 000 tonnes of maize is expected to be imported by individuals and petty traders through informal channels and in-kind remittances from South Africa, and possibly also from Mozambique and Zambia.

As was done in an earlier crisis year, the Mission recommends that the food imports by private-sector be allowed, with a clear policy statement on government import plans to allow the residual imports by others to help offset food shortages in the country.

The Mission also recommends that farmer-to-farmer grain sales be allowed in order to reduce transport costs and save on scarce fuel. In addition, an increase from 3 to 5 month consumption requirement for a family should be permitted through GMB distribution points to ensure that proceeds from the sales of large animals are not lost to inflation.

The Mission estimates that 4.1 million people, both urban and rural, will require food assistance amounting to 352 000 tonnes of cereals in 2007/08. The Mission recommends this amount as an emergency food aid for population severely affected by the current crisis in the priority geographic areas. The mission also recommends an additional 90 000 tonnes of non-cereal food aid to meet minimum daily calorie requirement of 2 100 Kcal for the most vulnerable people. For people not included in relief assistance, it is assumed that the GMB supplies will function "normally" and households will use their own resources to access food at designated prices.

The Mission also recommends government and international community assistance to supply good quality seed and fertilizer, and dipping chemicals for the control of tick-borne livestock diseases. Appropriate varieties of maize and small-grain seed also need to be sourced urgently for delivery in September 2007.

To deal with the structural food deficit and chronic shortage, it is recommended that the international community and the Government enter into a policy dialogue to mobilize the economic and other assistance needed to promote sustainable food production and overall food security by way of development assistance for investment in farm mechanization and farm-level infrastructure (for example, improved tractor availability and rehabilitation of irrigation facilities) to enhance productivity and allow fuller capacity utilization by the newly settled farmers. In line with the economic liberalization policy goal announced by the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe in April 2007, the Mission also supports reforms of the grain marketing system, in order to protect farmers with minimum prices and to allow private sector participation.

Please credit www.kubatana.net if you make use of material from this website. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License unless stated otherwise.

TOP