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FEWS Southern Africa Food Security Update Nov 2006
Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET)
December 11, 2005

http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/RWB.NSF/db900SID/LZEG-6WDSWY?OpenDocument&rc=1&cc=zwe

Summary and implications
The food security status of many households across the region remains stable, although there are signs that household food supplies are now tightening as the hunger season sets in. Food prices have generally remained stable and below last year and the past five years' average, but prices noticeably increased in November in select markets, indicating decreasing market supplies and raising concerns about growing food access problems among vulnerable populations. This is particularly true in Zimbabwe, where markets are generally inadequately supplied following below-normal harvests and a slow import program. Elsewhere, intra-regional trade (formal and informal) continues to play an important role in filling import requirements, though delivery rates are currently quite low.

The Updated Rainfall Outlook issued by the SADC Drought Monitoring Centre for December to February suggests an enhanced likelihood of normal or reduced rainfall in much of Botswana, southwestern Zambia, southeastern Zimbabwe, southern Angola, Madagascar, western Swaziland, most of South Africa, Lesotho and Namibia. The rest of the SADC region is forecast to have enhanced chances of normal or above-normal rainfall. In comparison, forecasts from IRI for December to February suggest weakening forecast signals, and much of southern Africa has a forecast of climatology, while the northern half of Tanzania and the eastern half of DRC are forecast to have above-normal rainfall. These forecasts come in the context of an El Niño that is currently active in the Pacific Ocean, which is traditionally associated with poor rains in many parts of southern Africa. Areas most vulnerable to drought include central and southern Zimbabwe, adjacent parts of South Africa, Mozambique, Botswana and northern Namibia. Since specific impacts of any single El Niño vary from incidence to incidence depending on the prevailing atmospheric and oceanic conditions, it is important to monitor the situation closely as the season progresses.

Food security summary
The food security status of many rural households across the region remains stable, although there are signs that household food supplies are now tightening as the hunger season of November through February sets in.

In Mozambique, the latest food security assessment conducted by the SETSAN/GAV in September indicated that food and nutrition security was stable throughout the country. Household access and market availability were found to be satisfactory, due to good performance of the first and second production seasons, improved livestock conditions and stable market prices. Localized cases of problematic access among the more vulnerable poorer households were assessed in some parts of the country, especially in the drought-prone south. As the hunger season sets in, many of the most vulnerable will require targeted assistance to carry them through the period, and close monitoring of the situation will be required. The April/May GAV assessment established the number of food insecure people requiring assistance between October 2006 and March 2007 at 121,500. However, this number has been revised upwards to 240,000 following the September assessment. WFP will continue to provide most of the targeted assistance through the regional protracted relief and recovery operation (PRRO), but the agency reports that the operation is seriously under-resourced.

In Malawi, access to staple foods remains stable for the majority of the households assessed as food secure by the MVAC April/May assessment. Furthermore, food aid interventions targeted at food insecure households expanded in October following agreement between humanitarian agencies and the government on the level of response required. This has brought some respite to vulnerable households in the worst-affected areas where the mid-season dry spells caused widespread crop failure. Improved household food stocks have reduced the pressure on markets as a result of winter maize harvests and food aid distributions, causing retail maize prices to decrease from September to November in many markets. For example, the November price of 26.75 MK per kg in the Kasungu market—in one of the districts worst affected by the long dry spells—is 12 percent lower than the September price of 30.38 MK per kg. Informal cross-border imports from Mozambique into southern Malawi continue to play an important role in supplying maize to local markets, despite a national maize surplus in Malawi.

In Zimbabwe, food insecurity across the country is increasing because of severe shortage of supplies in most markets, very high market prices and the continued erosion of purchasing power. Despite an improvement in staple food harvests this past season compared to the past few years, the country is still facing a large deficit of about 800,000 MT of maize since the harvest was insufficient to meet national consumption requirements. As the harvest has been almost completely drawn down, most households are relying on purchases. However, shortages of food supplies on the markets have driven up prices and the continued erosion of purchasing power (the October year-on-year inflation rate was 1,070 percent) means access to adequate food supplies cannot be assured, particularly for households in grain-deficit areas and urban centers. Maize prices on the parallel markets (relative to Grain Marketing Board depots) increased significantly between September and October in both rural and urban areas—an average of 20 percent for Bulawayo and Harare.

In Angola, a rapid assessment by FEWS NET conducted in September in the drought-affected areas of Huambo, Benguela and Huila provinces established that crop failure resulting from the December/January dry spell has increased the risk of food insecurity for some households over the coming months. However, analysis of current and trailing indicators suggest that the drop in production did not result in a significant food crisis requiring a large-scale emergency response. For example, at the time of the assessment, food prices in municipalities visited were stable, exhibiting trends that are normal for the time of the year. Maize prices were within 5 percent of the average price for the province, suggesting adequate market supplies. Some households were found to have cultivated on nacas during the winter, while others had good harvests of other crops such as sorghum/millet, cassava and sweet potatoes. Nonetheless, targeted seed and food assistance is warranted especially for those households reported to have already exhausted their meager harvests at the time of the assessment. Government and some NGOs are providing food support to some of the affected people. Close monitoring of food prices, rainfall performance and access to seed will be necessary in the next few months of the hungry season to review and update the situation accordingly.

In Tanzania, despite the improved harvest realized in most of the country, a Rapid Vulnerability Assessment (RVA) conducted in August estimates that between November and February, more than 651,600 people in 50 districts of the country will face food access problems, and will require more than 15,600 MT of food assistance. The RVA recommended that the government supply maize at a subsidized price of 100 TShs per kg (or US $0.08 per kg) to about 293,000 beneficiaries, while an additional 360,000 more-vulnerable people be provided with two months worth of free food. This will enable the food insecure households to engage in normal seasonal livelihood activities including working their own fields during the vuli season instead of engaging in off-farm paid labor. For most households, food availability is not expected to be problematic given the overall surplus production. Although maize price levels remain above-average for this time of the year, they have dropped significantly in recent months following the harvest. The drop in cereal prices has resulted in an improvement in the livestock terms of trade, although this too is still below last year's price levels.

In Zambia, the food security of many rural households remains stable as a result of the good maize harvests this past season. Nonetheless, as is normal for the time of the year, on-farm stocks are increasingly being drawn down while market demand has started to increase. Consequently, though prices remain relatively stable and well below last year's levels, increases have been recorded in some markets between September and November. The Food Reserve Agency's maize procurement program has been a huge success – by the end of September, the agency had purchased a total of 350,000 MT of surplus maize from farmers, 75 percent more than the initial target of 200,000 MT. Consequently, the agency extended the program for a further two weeks at the beginning of October with the intention to purchase an additional 50,000 MT. However, funding constraints have dogged the program and the farmers' response to this recent campaign has been varied as they are unhappy about not being paid up front.

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