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FEWS Zimbabwe Food Security Warning Aug 2006
Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET)
August 10, 2006

http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/RWB.NSF/db900SID/KHII-6SK8DH?OpenDocument&rc=1&cc=zwe

National food availability improves but rising cost of living continue to threaten household food security

Although food access will remain difficult for many urban and rural Zimbabweans over the coming year, improved food availability due to better production and government import capacity is likely to ameliorate the country’s food crisis in the post-harvest period. However, food insecurity is likely to deteriorate again as the hunger season peaks between September 2006 and January 2007, especially in cereal deficit areas of the country.

The availability of staple cereals (maize, sorghum and millet) from April 2006 to March 2007 is likely to be stable, primarily due to a significant increase in cereal production from the 2005/06 agricultural season and the demonstrated capacity of the Government of Zimbabwe to import food.

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization estimate maize production for the 2005/06 agricultural season at around 1,200,000 MT, and the Zimbabwe Central Statistical Office estimates small grains production to be around 328,300 MT. Against an estimated national cereal requirement of 1,923,390.MT, this leaves a national cereal deficit of about 395,000 MT, about a third of last marketing year’s deficit.

Data from the South African Grain information Services (SAGIS) indicates that during the period from April 2005 to March 2006, the Government of Zimbabwe imported more than 900,000 MT of maize to close the food gap for that period. Given this record, it is likely that the government will be able to import sufficient grains to meet domestic needs over the coming marketing year.

While national level cereal availability has improved, sub-national and household level food availability is heavily dependent on the efficiency and effectiveness of the sub-national grain redistribution systems and the purchasing power of deficit and non-food producing households. Figure 2 illustrates sub-national cereal availability based on per capita maize production during the 2005/06 agricultural season.

Poor urban households and rural households in staple cereal deficit areas are likely to face serious difficulties in accessing food due to the ever-rising cost of living in general and the escalating costs of food in particular. The annual rate of inflation measured in May 2006 by the Central Statistical office (CSO) was 1,193.5 percent, the highest ever in the history of Zimbabwe. Since February 2006, the annual rate of inflation has been setting new records every month. In June annual inflation recorded an 8.9 percentage point drop to 1,184.6 percent (Figure 3). This is the first dip in annual inflation since March 2005, and it is too early to tell whether this drop marks the much anticipated sustained slow down in the rate of increase of general prices in Zimbabwe. Annualized food inflation for June 2006 was 1,069.9 percent. Consequently the cost of the minimum basket of food stuffs required to meet the minimum requirement for a family of five was Z$22million per month in June 2006, about 23 percent more than its value in May 2006. A significant proportion of rural and urban households dependent on the market for their food do not earn enough to purchase the minimum basket. The minimum monthly wage rate for the commercial sector in June could only cover about 40 percent of the total cost of the minimum food basket for June 2006.

The ongoing Zimbabwe Vulnerability Assessment Committee (ZimVac) rural food security and vulnerability assessment will play an important role in defining the size and geographic distribution of the food security problem in the 2006/07 marketing year. This assessment will provide critical information for targeting efforts to support vulnerable households during the hunger season.

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