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Zimbabwe accused of inflating maize harvest figures
ZimOnline
May 17, 2006

http://www.zimonline.co.za/headdetail.asp?ID=12111

HARARE - A bumper maize harvest of 1.8 million tonnes announced by the Zimbabwe government in the just ended agriculture season is unlikely, food monitoring groups and farmers said, forecasting output at a maximum 900 000 tonnes.

Zimbabwe has experienced food shortages since 2001, with analysts blaming President Robert Mugabe's land grab policy for disrupting agriculture production, while critical shortages of farming inputs among new black farmers have also hit output.

Agriculture Minister Joseph Made, who in the past has falsified harvest figures - in one case stunning the nation with details that he was able to see a bumper harvest aboard an airplane - on Monday told Parliament's portfolio committee on agriculture that crop forecasts indicated that the grain harvest would significantly improve compared to the past three years.

"We expect 1.8 million metric tonnes total harvest and we expect to purchase 900 000 tonnes, which suggests that the other 900 000 tonnes will be retained by the farmers," Made said. But aid agencies and farmers immediately cast doubt over the glossy figures.

The United States Department of Agriculture's (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service sees a harvest of 900 000 tonnes of the staple maize crop, up from 550 000 tonnes last year.

Zimbabwe requires about 1.8 million tonnes of maize per year for human consumption, stockfeeds and industrial use. The Zimbabwe Grain Producers' Association (ZGPA), a commodities body of the Commercial Farmers' Union said this year's harvest will be higher than that of 2005 but less than half the government's projections.

"We are expecting a harvest of around 700,000 tonnes," George Hutchison, the ZGPA head said. "There are a number of factors really including the untimely availability of inputs to farmers."

The US-based Famine Early Warning System Network, which releases regular reports on Zimbabwe's food balance, said in its recent report that the country will see an improved harvest from last year but food shortages will persist.

A member of the Zimbabwe Farmers Union, which represents rural peasant farmers and usually sides with the government on most issues, told ZimOnline: "There is no doubt output is better than last year, but to say we will harvest 1.8 million tonnes, is a bit overly optimistic."

The official, who declined to be named, would not give the organisation's maize forecast.

Analysts said the fact that Made indicated that the government would continue importing maize "to build up strategic grain reserves that would have a two-year cover," was an admission that the country's harvest was not enough to meet national needs.

Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe governor Gideon Gono has said the country spent US$140 million in food imports last year while government politicians have cranked up the rhetoric saying a bumper harvest in 2006 would see much of the little foreign currency trickling into the country being diverted from funding food imports to pay for infrastructure development.

Zimbabwe, the former basket of southern Africa is now surviving on food aid after plunging into a crisis blamed on controversial policies, fanning inflation which raced beyond 1 000 percent in April.

"Incredible. There is no evidence on the ground to back those figures," said John Robertson, a Harare-based economic analyst. "It is absolutely essential that we import food, if we don't import then we don't eat," he added.

Mugabe charges that food shortages are a result of drought and sanctions imposed by the West which has seen Zimbabwe unable to get foreign currency inflows to plug the food deficit. - ZimOnline

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