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Regional Food Security Programme Special Agromet - Update: 22 Mar 2005
Relief Web
March 22, 2005

http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/RWB.NSF/db900SID/RMOI-6B98JU?OpenDocument&rc=1&cc=zwe

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Rainfall Performance
Despite a good rainfall performance in many parts of the SADC region in the first half of the rainfall season, the second part of the season has been characterized by poor rains in a large part of the southern half of the region. Apart from some of the northern areas that experience two seasons annually, the rainfall season in much of the SADC region commences in October/November and terminates in April/May. During the 2004-2005 agricultural season, the rainfall commenced on time in the northern parts of the sub-region while the southern parts experienced delayed onset in parts of Botswana, Mozambique, Lesotho, Swaziland, South Africa, Zimbabwe and Namibia. The rainfall improved in November and December 2004 in most areas, and cumulative rainfall up to December was satisfactory in most of the SADC region. Northern South Africa, southern Zimbabwe, and some areas in southern Mozambique, northern Botswana, Lesotho and Swaziland however had low rains during this first half.

The second half of the season (January up to current) experienced rainfall below average amounts in some parts of SADC. Southern Mozambique received less than 30% of normal rainfall (dark brown areas, figure 1) while areas in parts of northern and eastern Botswana, central and southern Malawi, much of Mozambique, southern and central Zambia, eastern and southern Zimbabwe, northern parts of South Africa, parts of northeast Namibia, and parts of Tanzania and received between 30-60% of normal rainfall (brown colours, Figure 1). Parts of Lesotho and Swaziland had poor rainfall distribution earlier in the year -- recent rains have brought their percentages of normal rainfall to near-normal levels, although in many cases too late to revive affected grain crops. Table 1 summarizes the rainfall patterns during the January-March 10 period, as well as the potential implications of the rainfall pattern on agriculture, for selected zones in the Member States. The low rainfall received during this period was associated with long dry spells of up to 20-30 days which occurred from late January into February 2005, a critical time for crop development

Impact on Agricultural Production
The rainfall performance in much of the southern half of the region has been quite poor during the second half of the season (Figure 1, brown colours). This has negative implications for cereals and pulses, with pasture for livestock being affected in areas with more extreme rainfall deficit areas and high livestock densities, while roots and tubers are not likely to be affected. For maize, the dry spells are likely to reduce yields by about 10-20% on average in parts of central and southern Malawi, Mozambique and Zambia, eastern and southern Zimbabwe, parts of Lesotho, northern South Africa and Swaziland. In some areas though, the reduction in yield could be even higher.

Where sorghum and millet were planted, these were less affected by the dryness. Pulses were also affected. However, some pulses had already reached maturity by the time the dry spell started. Despite the recent dryness, roots and tubers are likely to experience a minimal reduction in yield. The situation may impact slightly on livestock in terms of pasture availability, as pastures are more resilient than crops in terms of surviving soil moisture deficits. However, areas that have received less than 60% of normal rainfall will experience reduced pasture availability especially where livestock densities are high.

South Africa -- the biggest grain producer in the region, is having a very good season in the main grain producing areas, and expects a bumper harvest this production year; this is on top of the residual surplus from last season. The surplus grain from South Africa could be sufficient to meet the shortfalls likely to be experienced in other countries this season. In most areas in the southern half of the region, the season has progressed for more than three quarters of its normal duration. Little rainfall is expected in these areas as the rainfall systems are moving northwards. Even in the event of more rains in the remainder of the season, most grain crops that have been affected in these southern areas are beyond recovery.

However, pasture for livestock will be improved by any anomalous rains. In the northern half of the region, the season is still continuing. Forecasts are calling for higher chances of good rains in these areas, which should improve the current poor performance in some of these areas such as northern Tanzania.

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