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Zimbabwe food security update December 2004
Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWSNET)
January 05, 2005

http://www.fews.net/centers/innerSections.aspx?f=zw&m=1001461&pageID=monthliesDoc

Summary and implications
Staple cereals are increasingly unavailable in most rural areas as the peak hunger season progresses. Maize prices on the parallel markets continue to rise, limiting the ability of deficit households to buy enough food to satisfy their needs. High inflation and the Grain Marketing Board (GMB) monopoly over marketing maize are exacerbating the situation. In most urban centers staple cereals continue to be available. But a smaller proportion of urban households are able to purchase sufficient food due to the continued erosion of real incomes. Food insecure households in both urban and rural areas are responding through reducing their consumption. Over time, levels of malnutrition and related diseases are expected to rise, peaking in the January to March 2005 period.

Current hazard summary

• Staple food prices, already too high for the majority poor, are increasing at very high rates; annual food inflation for November 2004 was estimated by the Central Statistical Office (CSO) at 143.1 percent.
• Cereals are not readily available in markets in grain deficit areas.

Food security summary
Maize prices on the parallel markets in both rural and urban areas went up by over Z$200/kg between November and December this year. Urban maize prices tend to be about Z$200/kg higher than in surplus rural areas (the light green areas in Figure 1), but around Z$200/kg lower than in deficit areas (the red areas in Figure 1). Maize availability in the light green zone is still adequate. Deficit households in this zone can obtain maize through purchase from local farmers (if they have the money), direct labor exchange, or gifts/loans from neighbors, friends and relatives from the same area. People going hungry in this zone are predominantly the chronically poor who often go hungry at this time even during normal years. The availability of maize and staple grains in the two red zones has reached critical levels and continues to worsen. Here, even people with some means of earning money regularly are struggling to get maize on a regular basis.

Figure 1 (Parallel Market Maize Grains Prices (Z$/kg) for Mid December 2004)

In the red and pink zones, employment opportunities are few and incomes low, but even people with means of earning income struggle to get maize on a regular basis. The availability of grain depends on the erratic and inadequate GMB supplies, which have been critically short and continue to worsen. . Few households in these zones have the means to travel into the other zones or to an urban market to buy the maize they need. Consequently, they are forced to reduce the number of meals, reduce the size of meals and/or spend the whole day without having a meal at all. The GMB is having serious transport shortages and are unable to adequately move the grain in some of its depots and silos to the needy areas. Innovative humanitarian interventions in this area could significantly address the food shortages faced by many rural households.

The social protection programs which were established to address the food needs of the aged, orphans, chronically ill and other social welfare cases are grossly inadequate. The targeted feeding programs currently allowed by the government cannot adequately address the food insecurity problem facing both urban and rural communities in Zimbabwe. The humanitarian community in Zimbabwe needs to find fresh ideas, palatable to both the Government of Zimbabwe and the donor community, to expand the limited working space in which they are currently forced to operate.

Urban food security continues to be threatened by ever-rising cost of living
The cost of living in urban areas has increased steadily over 2004, and the majority of urban households struggle to meet their basic expenditure requirements. The cost of food and non food items has increased 92 percent from January to November 2004, and wages and salary increases have lagged. The November 2004 minimum industrial wage of Z$500,000 could cover only 31 percent of the November 2004 CCZ expenditure basket. Although annual inflation has fallen to 149.3 percent, shedding 59.7 percentage points on the October 2004 rate of 209.0 percent, it still remains among the highest levels of inflation in the world.

Figure 2: Cost of monthly expenditure basket for a low income urban household of six in Harare, January 2004-November 2004

The cost of the monthly basket for a low-income urban household of six, as monitored by the Consumer Council of Zimbabwe (CCZ), stood at Z$1,630,755. This marks an increase of 5 percent between October and November 2004. Much of this increase can be explained by increases in the prices of sugar and fresh milk, 28 and 12 percent, respectively. Other notable increases were recorded on non food items like accommodation, which increased by 67 percent.

The rainfall situation improves
The rainfall situation improved significantly during the first two dekads of December. At the beginning of December, the whole country, except for the northeastern part, had received less than 75 percent of normal rainfall (Figure3a). However, by December 22 the cumulative seasonal rainfall over most of the country reached or exceeded normal (Figure 3b). Totals exceeded normal over most of the northern half of the country, while in the bulk of the south they reached at least 80 percent of normal. The improved rainfall situation is expected to encourage farmers to prepare and plant more land.

Figure 3a: Percentage of normal rainfall as of 1 December 2004

Figure 3b: Percentage of normal rainfall as of 22 December 2004

The government reported that 977,694 hectares (ha) had been tilled and only 328,248 ha had been planted to crops by the end of November. Shortage of tractors and low soil moisture were the major constraints. The area reported to have been prepared is 41 percent of the average area put to crops in the five seasons following the 1999/00 season. Considering that most of this area was prepared in about one and a half months, it is a conservative estimate to project that at least 2 million hectares could be prepared by mid-January 2005 given the positive rainfall forecast for much of the northern half of the country for the second half of the rainfall season.

Armyworm outbreaks in Masvingo, Midlands and Bulawayo

The government department of Agricultural Research and Extension (AREX) reported outbreaks of armyworm in parts of Matebeleland North, Midlands, Masvingo and Mashonaland West Provinces.

Armyworm can destroy large areas of crop and pasture in a short space of time if not controlled. The pests are reported to be eating crops and pasture. Up to 20 ha of crops are reported to have been destroyed in Midlands Provinces alone and large tracks of grasslands have been destroyed by the worm in and around Bulawayo. The impact of the pest in other provinces is not yet clear. AREX is distributing chemicals for controlling the pest and spraying has started.

Figure 4: Districts Reporting Armyworm Outbreaks by 30 December 2004

Source: AREX

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