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Food
supply situation and crop prospects in Sub-Saharan Africa No. 2
FAO Global Information and Early Warning System on food and agriculture
(GIEWS)
June 2004
What follows below is an extract from the report.
This is the second
issue for 2004 of this report prepared by the FAO Global Information and
Early Warning System (GIEWS) on the food supply situation and cereal import
and food aid requirements for all countries in sub-Saharan Africa. The
report is designed to provide the latest analysis and information on the
food situation in these countries to governments, international organizations
and other institutions engaged in humanitarian operations.
In this introductory
part, countries in the sub-region facing serious food shortages are listed
with principal causes of food insecurity. This is followed by the Highlights
of the report.
Part I provides a
country-by-country review of the food supply situation by sub-region,
as well as current crop prospects. The accompanying tables (Tables 1-
6) provide data on production, cereal import requirements and food aid
needs. The information on food aid pledges, triangular transactions and
local purchases is based on data transmitted to GIEWS as of end May 2004
by the World Food Programme.
Part II provides country
cereal balance sheets (CCBS), highlighting cereal import and food aid
requirements of individual countries, as well as other important data.
Countries facing
food emergencies (Total: 23 countries)
|
Country
|
Reasons
for emergency
|
|
Angola
|
Returnees
|
|
Burundi
|
Civil strife,
IDPs
|
|
Chad
|
Refugees
|
|
Central
Afr. Rep.
|
Civil strife
|
|
Congo,
Dem.Rep.
|
Civil strife,
IDPs and refugees
|
|
Congo Rep.
of
|
Civil strife,
IDPs
|
|
Côte
d’Ivoire
|
Civil strife,
IDPs
|
|
Eritrea
|
Drought,IDPs,
returnees
|
|
Ethiopia
|
Drought in
parts, IDPs
|
|
Guinea
|
IDPs and refugees
|
|
Kenya
|
Drought in
parts
|
|
Lesotho
|
Drought
|
|
Liberia
|
Civil strife,
IDPs
|
|
Madagascar
|
Drought in
southern parts, cyclones
|
|
Mauritania
|
Drought
|
|
Malawi
|
Drought in
parts
|
|
Sierra
Leone
|
IDPs
|
|
Somalia
|
Civil strife,
drought in parts
|
|
Sudan
|
Civil strife,
drought in parts
|
|
Swaziland
|
Drought in
parts
|
|
Tanzania,
U.R.
|
Drought in
parts, refugees
|
|
Uganda
|
Civil strife,
IDPs
|
|
Zimbabwe
|
Economic crisis,
drought
|
Since conditions can change rapidly, and published information may not
always represent the most up-to-date basis for action, enquiries or corrections
should be directed to Henri Josserand, Chief, Global Information and Early
Warning Service (ESCG), FAO, Rome (Fax: 39-06-5705-4495, E-mail: GIEWS1@FAO.ORG).
In southern Africa,
the harvest of 2004 summer crops, mainly maize, sorghum, millets and pulses,
is complete. This year FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Missions
visited Malawi, Mozambique, Zimbabwe,1/ Lesotho, Swaziland
and Angola in April-May. The preliminary estimate of total 2004 cereal
harvest for the sub-region points to about 20 million tonnes, a decline
of about 4 percent from last year. Production of maize, the region’s most
important crop, at about 14 million tonnes, was the hardest hit by a drought
in the eastern part of the sub-region, with a decline of about 9 percent
from last year. FAO estimates a reduced 2004 harvest of cereals for Lesotho,
Malawi, South Africa, Swaziland and Zimbabwe.On the other hand, increased
production in Angola, Botswana, Madagascar, Mozambique, Namibia and Zambiais
forecast. The overall reduction of maize and other summer crops this year
is expected to result in a net coarse grain import requirement for the
sub-region as a whole of about 2 million tonnes for the 2004/05 marketing
year.
In Zimbabwe,
a joint FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission was in the country
in April 2004 for part of the planned period. Based on the mission’s visits
to three main provinces, observations along the travel routes and interviews
with key informants at local level and satellite imagery, the mission
estimated 2004 total cereal production (excluding barley) at 950 000 tonnes
with a margin of error of 10 percent. This compares with last year’s 1
million tonnes. The low level of production is attributed to delayed and
erratic rainfall, shortages of quality seeds, the high local cost of fertilizer,
shortages of draught animal power and tractors, a further decline in the
utilization of large-scale commercial farms, and the impact of HIV/AIDS
pandemic. At the beginning of the season in October very few farmers were
able to plant maize due to insufficient and scattered showers. The ensuing
dry spell destroyed many first plantings. Effectively, rains started throughout
much of the country in late December-early January, pushing back maize
and sorghum start-of-season in many areas.
The exact level of
stocks held by the government’s Grain Marketing Board is unknown. Assuming
relatively low levels of stocks, the country will need to import over
one million tonnes of cereals. Hyper inflation combined with extremely
high levels of unemployment greatly limit access to food for the most
vulnerable population groups. According to the Vulnerability Assessment
Committee (VAC) about 2.3 million people in rural areas alone will not
be able to cover their food needs, and possibly just as many in the urban
areas.
Zimbabwe
An FAO/WFP
Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission in April estimated the 2004 cereal
production at 975 000 tonnes, including forecast for the winter wheat
and barley crops. At this level, production is 3.5 percent below last
year and well below average. Consequently, cereal import requirement for
2004/05 are increased to 1.29 million tonnes, of which maize accounts
for 77 percent. Given the current tight foreign exchange position, about
910 000 tonnes are anticipated to be imported commercially.
|
CEREAL
SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 2004/05 MARKETING YEAR (April/March)
|
| |
Wheat
|
Rice
|
Coarse
Grains
|
Total
Cereals
|
| |
[
|
thousand
tonnes
|
]
|
|
Previous year
production (incl. paddy rice)
|
90
|
5
|
917
|
1
011
|
|
Previous five
years average production (incl. paddy rice)
|
230
|
1
|
1
396
|
1
627
|
|
Previous year
imports
|
33
|
9
|
813
|
855
|
|
Previous five
years average imports
|
109
|
19
|
479
|
607
|
|
2004/05
Domestic Availability
|
80
|
2
|
893
|
975
|
|
2004 Production
(incl. paddy rice)
|
80
|
3
|
893
|
976
|
|
2004 Production
(incl. milled rice)
|
80
|
2
|
893
|
975
|
|
Possible stock
drawdown
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
2004/05
Utilization
|
356
|
11
|
1
898
|
2
265
|
|
Food use
|
345
|
11
|
1
584
|
1
940
|
|
Non-food use
|
11
|
-
|
269
|
280
|
|
Exports or
re-exports
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
Possible stock
build up
|
-
|
-
|
45
|
45
|
|
2004/05
Import Requirement
|
276
|
9
|
1
005
|
1
290
|
|
Anticipated
commercial imports
|
276
|
9
|
629
|
914
|
|
of which:
received or contracted
|
10
|
-
|
50
|
60
|
|
Food aid needs
|
-
|
-
|
376
|
376
|
|
Current
Aid Position
|
|
|
|
|
|
Food aid pledges
|
-
|
-
|
85
|
85
|
|
of which:
delivered
|
-
|
-
|
58
|
58
|
|
Donor-financed
purchases
|
-
|
-
|
2
|
2
|
|
of which:
for local use
|
-
|
-
|
2
|
2
|
|
for export
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
Estimated
Per Caput Consumption (kg/year)
|
29
|
1
|
133
|
163
|
|
Indexes
|
[
|
Percentage
|
]
|
|
2004 Production
compared to average (incl. paddy rice)
|
35
|
300
|
64
|
60
|
|
2004/05 Import
requirement compared to average
|
253
|
47
|
210
|
213
|
|
Cereal share
of total calorie intake
|
|
|
|
58
|
|
Additional
Information
|
|
|
|
|
|
Major foodcrops
|
maize; wheat;
millet; sorghum
|
|
Lean season
|
February-April
|
|
Population
(000s)
|
11
900
|
|
|
|
|
GNI per capita
in 2002 (US$)
|
n.a.
|
|
|
|
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