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Zimbabwe's Elections 2013 - Index of Articles
scenarios of the post election era
Patrice Makova, The Standard (Zimbabwe)
July 21, 2013
election is now just 10 days away, and barring any unforeseeable
mishaps, Zimbabweans will soon know who is going to occupy the State
House for the next five years.
Electoral Commission (Zec) has promised it will announce the result
of the presidential election within five days, after the poll.
The top contenders
in the watershed polls are President Robert Mugabe of Zanu-PF whose
33-year rule is under threat from Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai
formation of the MDC led by Professor Welshman Ncube is however,
warning of an upset.
if Mugabe wins, no radical transformation is expected, while a victory
by Tsvangirai may change the course of the nation forever.
Gift Mambipiri said a Zanu-PF win would likely set the country on
an edge for the next six or more months until the party settles
its succession matrix.
He said in the
meantime, the destiny of the country would be tied to the fate of
the party’s leadership dynamics.
debate has proved to be a hot potato over the years. It is now a
time bomb. The formula used to solve this succession equation, and
the result, will determine whether we proceed to Canaan [freedom],
or regress to Egypt [bondage],” said Mambipiri. But, he said,
the odds were heavily stacked against a clean succession formula.
the succession flames being stoked from deep within the party even
after a Zanu-PF win, warning “those flames will consume every
other part of our national fabric.”
in Zanu-PF are battling to succeed 89-year-old Mugabe. One is loyal
to vice-President Joice Mujuru and the other has links to Defence
minister Emmerson Mnangagwa.
and Mnangagwa have however, repeatedly denied leading factions or
harbouring presidential ambitions. Mambipiri said if the MDC-T wins,
Tsvangirai would be lucky to assume power.
He said if he
does, nothing material would change in the development discourse
of the country in the first years, because Zanu-PF has in the last
33 years spread its wings into every other aspect of people’s
the state structures to facilitate a new governance language will
be a mammoth task, yet the country desperately needs to chart a
new course,” said Mambipiri.
Zimbabwe political science lecturer, Shakespear Hamauswa said a
win by either of the two main candidates was tricky.
said Tsvangirai had better potential as he has been learning from
Zanu-PF’s mistakes. Hamauswa said with Tsvangirai’s
“commitment” to curb corruption and promote good governance,
a new and transformed Zimbabwe was possible.
been in government under the shadow of Zanu-PF, thus given the chance
to rule alone the systems of governance will be transformed for
the better,” he said.
the MDC-T was unlikely to issue “reckless” statements
that would invite the security chiefs to the electoral process like
they did in 2008.
He said if the
MDC-T was prepared to give a safe exit package to the Zanu-PF hardliners
and security chiefs, stability would be guaranteed.
they have to be strong enough to tell the world that an eye for
an eye will not be possible in Zimbabwe. A gradual reform will make
MDC’s rule and governance easier,” said the political
He said the
international community was unlikely to endorse Mugabe’s victory,
especially considering the chaotic special voting process.
Zanu-PF was likely to further frighten potential investors, not
only foreign, but also domestic ones.
He said no one
would invest in a country where polices were not predictable.
of bringing the much needed change to the country, Zanu-PF is promising
nothing, this is clear from their campaign message on television
that is full of hate and derogatory statements,” said Hamauswa.
deriding Tsvangirai, we are not aware as to what the Zanu-PF government
will have for media reforms, for home-seekers or for civil servants.”
He said Zanu
PF also threatened to bring back the Zimbabwean dollar and to pull
out of Sadc, a move that would further alienate the country from
the community of nations.
country with friends from the East only will not be able to survive
economically, it will be like putting all eggs into one basket,”
on indigenisation and economic empowerment, promising to create
2,2 million jobs over the next five years by unlocking value from
idle assets worth at least US$1,8 trillion of mineral claims or
The MDC-T manifesto
on the other hand, promises to create one million jobs by 2018 and
a US$100 billion economy by 2014.
It focuses on
investment entrepreneurship, job creation, rural development and
win will not change much - analyst
the possible outcomes of the elections, political analyst Tamuka
Chirimambowa said a Mugabe win would see the continuation of the
current indigenisation and economic empowerment polices which were
benefiting only the elite and those closely connected to Zanu-PF.
He said on the
other hand, if Tsvangirai won, his government was likely to opt
for a broad-based empowerment programme as espoused in the MDC-T’s
Agenda for Real Transformation (ART) and Jobs,
Upliftment, Investment, Capital and Environment (Juice) economic
said the MDC-T was talking of both investment and creation of jobs
as not everyone has the capacity to start a company.
a fallacy to say that everyone can own a company. You need to strike
a balance between creating jobs and investment,” he said.
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