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Call for an in-depth analysis of the March 2008 elections
Concerned Zimbabwean
June 22, 2009

Although they were far from perfect, the March 2008 elections give the only recent indication of the political preferences of the Zimbabwean electorate. The results of these elections contain a wealth of information especially as there were in fact four simultaneous elections on one occasion, namely for the President, Senate, House of Assembly and Local Government. Because of this, researchers and academics should be analysing them in depth. However, although a great deal has been written about the events before, during and after the elections, there seems to have been little attempt at analysing the results in any detail and drawing conclusions from them.

Arising from the results, many important questions need to be considered. These include:

1. To what extent did ZANU-PF loyalists vote for their Party in the Senate and House of Assembly elections but not for the Party's Presidential candidate, Mr Mugabe? There seems to have been this trend of voting in some of the constituencies.
2. Why, surprisingly, especially bearing in mind the history of the concerned Province since Independence, did Mr Mugabe poll substantially more votes in the Presidential election in Matabeleland South Province than any other Presidential candidate in that Province?
3. Also in Matabeleland South Province, why did MDC (M) win more constituency seats in the House of Assembly elections than the combined total of the seats won by ZANU-PF and MDC (T) in that Province?
4. Why did the Presidential candidate Mr Makoni poll minimal votes in Manicaland, his home Province, and also in many other areas, but in contrast, a great many votes in Matabeleland North, Matabeleland South and Bulawayo Provinces, where he is hardly known at all?
5. The same type of question can be asked about Mr Mutambara, the head of MDC (M). In fact, with whom or where is the heart of the support for MDC (M)?
6. In the Provinces of Matabeleland North, Matabeleland South and Bulawayo, what motivated large numbers of voters to vote for Mr Makoni in the Presidential election and MDC (M) in the Senate and House of Assembly elections? Was this a pro- Makoni or a pro-MDC (M) vote or alternatively an anti-ZANU-PF vote or were other factors brought into play?
7. Why, in the Senate and House of Assembly constituencies, did MDC (M) perform poorly in Bulawayo Province, compared to that Party's strong performance in the neighbouring rural constituencies in the Provinces of Matabeleland North and Matabeleland South?
8. Why, with only a single exception, were all the prominent MDC (M) candidates in Bulawayo and Harare Provinces in the Senate and House of Assembly elections defeated whilst relatively unknown candidates from the same Party were successful in Matabeleland North and Matabeleland South Provinces?
9. Of the 10 Provinces, Matabeleland South was Mr Tsvangirai's lowest percentage poll in the Presidential election and his Party also won the lowest number of Senate and House of Assembly constituency seats in that Province. It can be argued that this poor showing directly affected the overall national outcome of elections. Why did Mr Tsvangirai and his Party poll so poorly in Matabeleland South Province?
10. Why did Mr Tsvangarai and his Party poll so well in the traditional ZANU-PF rural strongholds of Mashonaland East and Mashonaland West Provinces? What sections of voters in those rural areas vote for them? This pattern of voting in these Provinces is especially surprising in view of the fact that there are many new re-settlement areas in those Provinces where the support for ZANU-PF was presumably strong as the settlers in these areas have directly benefited from ZANU-PF patronage by being given land. To what extent did the ordinary villagers in those Provinces desert ZANU-PF and what motivated them to do that?
11. In the politically sensitive and important Province of Masvingo, what motivated many voters to vote on this occasion for MDC (T) and not for ZANU-PF and what are the strength and weaknesses of the two Parties in that Province. To what extent can it be said that this Province is the nucleus of the battle between ZANU-PF and MDC (T)?
12. To what extent has ZANU-PF "lost" large sections of Manicaland Province to MDC (T) and why did MDC (T) do so well in that Province?
13. In contrast to their relatively poor showing in other more natural strongholds, what were the reasons for ZANU-PF managing to do so well in the traditionally politically divided Midlands Province and why did MDC (T) perform poorly in that Province?

These and many more are the types of questions that could be analysed. In past elections in Zimbabwe, political preferences were mainly divided on ethnic lines and were therefore predictable. However, the position now is far more complicated. There should be research therefore in relation to the divers voting figures and also in relation to the many and varied motivations as to why voters voted as they did.

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