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Zimbabwe's Mugabe to go through with runoff
Angus Shaw, Washington Times
June 22, 2008

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/22/AR2008062201175.html

It will be an election with no opponent and little hope of endorsement from even traditional allies. But President Robert Mugabe appears determined to go through with a runoff later this week, and to extend his nearly three decades in power for as long as he can.

On Sunday, opposition candidate Morgan Tsvangirai pulled out of the two-man race. Tsvangirai said his party had been the target of so much brutality meted out by Mugabe's police, soldiers and militant loyalists that the run-off was a sham. But Mugabe's information minister said the vote would go ahead Friday.

A runoff seen as so tainted by violence that the opposition candidate withdrew was unlikely to be recognized by the international community as legitimate. That and the majority Tsvangirai's party and allies won in parliamentary elections in March could prompt moderates in Mugabe's party to reach out to the opposition.

Much may depend on neighboring South Africa, to whom many in the region look for economic and political leadership. South African President Thabo Mbeki has been mediating between Mugabe and Tsvangirai for more than a year with little sign of progress.

Mbeki has steadfastly refused to publicly criticize Mugabe, an ally from the days of South Africa's anti-apartheid struggle, saying confrontation would only worsen the situation. On Sunday, Mbeki's spokesman Mukoni Ratshitanga did say that the violence Tsvangirai cited was not helpful.

Ratshitanga said Tsvangirai had called South Africa's president earlier Sunday to inform him he was withdrawing. Tsvangirai had earlier called on Mbeki to step down as mediator, accusing him of siding with Mugabe.

"Of course we would like to encourage the MDC to continue to play a role in the normalization of the political process in Zimbabwe," Mbeki's spokesman said. "And we are encouraged that Mr. Tsvangirai says he is not closing the door completely on negotiations."

Tsvangirai had once said that only after he had taken part in the runoff and the international community had seen Mugabe steal his victory would world leaders be moved to take firm action. He may have come to doubt that as the violence mounted and Mugabe continued to ignore criticism _ even when it came from old allies like neighboring Angola.

Independent human rights groups say 85 people have died and tens of thousands have been displaced from their homes, most of them opposition supporters.

Zimbabwean Information Minister Sikhanyiso Ndlovu said that the runoff would go ahead in accordance with the constitution, and to prove Zimbabweans' support for their longtime leader.

"The constitution does not say that if somebody drops out or decides to chicken out the runoff will not be held," Ndlovu said.

While nothing seems to move Mugabe, at least one Western diplomat familiar with the region said others in his ZANU-PF party may feel the pressure. The diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity last week because of the sensitivity of the issue, said ZANU-PF moderates may try to sideline Mugabe to bring Zimbabwe out of international isolation.

Several African leaders have said Zimbabwe should consider a coalition agreement, similar to the one that resulted in Raila Odinga becoming Kenya's prime minister, sharing power with his rival Mwai Kibaki as president after a disputed presidential election there sparked widespread violence.

Tsvangirai came in first in a field of four in Zimbabwe's first round of presidential balloting in March. But, according to official figures, he did not win the 50 percent plus one vote needed to avoid a second round against second-place finisher Mugabe.

Zambian President Levy Mwanawasa said that Zimbabwe's runoff should be postponed in light of Tsvangirai's withdrawal and the violence.

Tsvangirai called on the United Nations, the European Union and the Southern African regional bloc to intervene. The European Union threatened Friday to step up sanctions against Mugabe's government, and the United States and Britain want a special U.N. Security Council meeting.

Tsvangirai said he would put forward new proposals by Wednesday on how take the country forward. He did not provide any details about what the proposals would include.

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