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A bloody crackdown
The Economist
April 22, 2008

http://www.economist.com/world/africa/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11077953

The situation in Zimbabwe is akin to war, says the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). It is certainly looking ever more brutal. Violence and repression have escalated dramatically over the past few days. Pro-government militias roam the countryside, terrorising and beating suspected opposition supporters. The police remain idle or, in some cases, join in with the beatings. The Zimbabwe Association of Doctors for Human Rights, a local outfit, has treated over 240 cases of injury, including broken limbs, resulting from organised violence since parliamentary and presidential elections just over three weeks ago.

Human Rights Watch, an international group, says that ZANU-PF, the ruling party of President Robert Mugabe, has set up torture camps across the country as part of a systematic campaign to intimidate the opposition, which won the parliamentary elections and, it claims, the presidential vote too. Victims are taken to the camps at night and beaten for hours with thick sticks, bars and army batons. Huts and houses have been torched. An unofficial curfew is in force in the poor suburbs of Harare, the capital. The MDC says that ten of its supporters have been killed, some shot dead. The opposition also says that some 3,000 families have had to flee their homes, 500 people have been put in hospital and over 400 opposition activists have been arrested.

No one doubts that Mr Mugabe is seeking to assert his control through violence as the country waits, still, for the results of the presidential election to be declared. Rather than make such an announcement, the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission has instead started recounting votes in 23 constituencies, in what looks like an attempt to overturn the opposition's control of parliament. A reversal of nine seats would be enough to hand ZANU-PF a majority once again. The MDC calls the recount illegal and is boycotting the exercise, but lost a court case which would have blocked it. The opposition and observers say that ballot boxes have been tampered with since the election.

Morgan Tsvangirai, the MDC president, has been touring the region trying to persuade African leaders to intervene in Zimbabwe. So far, the response from the Southern African Development Community (SADC), a regional club of 14 countries, has been muted. SADC said it was happy with the election before any results were announced. It has sent a team to observe the parliamentary recount and has called for a potential presidential run-off to be "secure", which means transparent and fair.

Mr Tsvangirai wants South Africa's ineffectual president, Thabo Mbeki, to be relieved of his duties attempting to mediate in Zimbabwe. Mr Mbeki's government refused to block a shipment of Chinese weaponry that was destined for Zimbabwe and was scheduled to be unloaded in South African docks earlier this week. Dockers took the initiative instead and the ship was eventually turned away. Zambia's government is now calling on all countries in the region to refuse to let the ship unload its cargo. A Chinese official has suggested that the ship may now return to Asia.

Mr Tsvangirai suggests that a regional team should set up camp in Harare, just as African leaders did in Kenya earlier this year, to help to bring an end to post-election violence and find a political solution. But SADC leaders, for now, are sticking with Mr Mbeki.

Not everyone is so feeble in response to the repression. Britain, Zimbabwe's former colonial power, has criticised the parliamentary recount as a "charade of democracy" and accuses Mr Mugabe of trying to steal the elections. The former secretary-general of the United Nations, Kofi Annan, has met an MDC representative and may be willing to mediate as he did in Kenya. Mr Tsvangirai is travelling to west Africa to meet the current secretary-general, Ban Ki-moon, and regional leaders. Both the SADC and African Union have at least called for the presidential results to be announced as soon as possible. Kenya's new prime minister, Raila Odinga, and Mr Annan have called on the region to do more over Zimbabwe. South Africa's ruling African National Congress has said it would initiate its own mediation effort.

But unless the MDC manages to convince African governments to adopt a tougher stance against Mr Mugabe, it is unlikely that the results of the election will be respected. Zimbabwe's crafty president is determined to stay in power through violence and the opposition does not appear to have any plan if the diplomatic offensive fails. After changing tacks several times, it is again saying it will boycott any run-off election. No wonder that even more Zimbabweans are now making their way to the borders.

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