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This article participates on the following special index pages:
2008 harmonised elections - Index of articles
ZESN
poll projections on March 29 presidential elections
Zimbabwe
Election Support Network
March 31, 2008
http://www.zesn.org.zw/pub_view.cfm?pid=169
The Zimbabwe
Election Support Network (ZESN), a group of 38 leading Zimbabwe
civil society organizations announced today the findings of an electoral
observation effort using information gathered by accredited observers
from a random representative sample of polling stations in all provinces
of the country. This technique, known as Sample Based Observation
(SBO), is a proven methodology used worldwide to build confidence
in the electoral process. It has been used in over 20 countries
including Zambia, Madagascar and Malawi.
In order to
give the people of Zimbabwe confidence in the conduct of the tabulation
process and the degree to which the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission
(ZEC) results reflect the will of the people, trained and accredited
ZESN observers collected official vote counts from a representative
random sample of polling stations across the ten provinces of the
country. The sample is stratified by province and urban/rural areas
to ensure that the findings are representative. An independent statistician
reviewed the exercise to ensure it meets the highest statistical
standards.
While it is
the responsibility of the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) to
announce the official results of the election, it is the legal duty
of election observers to provide the people of Zimbabwe with independent
non-partisan information on all aspects of the electoral process.
This information helps build confidence in the process. Based on
official vote counts publicly displayed at polling stations as required
by the Electoral Act, ZESN collected data from a representative
random sample of 435 polling stations spread across all 10 provinces
and after a careful and thorough analysis of the data, ZESN is able
to make the following projections about the presidential elections:
- Morgan Tsvangirai
is projected to receive the highest number of votes in the March
29, 2008 presidential election;
- Robert Gabriel
Mugabe is projected to receive the second-highest number of votes;
and
- Herbert Stanley
Simba Makoni is projected to receive the third-highest number
of votes
|
Presidential
Poll Projections - 29 March 2008 Harmonized Elections |
Candidate |
Projected
Percent
Vote
|
Margin
of
Error
|
95%
Confidence Interval |
Makoni,
Herbert Stanley Simba |
8.2% |
1.1% |
7.1
to 9.3 |
Mugabe,
Robert Gabriel |
41.8% |
2.6% |
39.2
to 44.4 |
Towungana,
Langton |
0.6% |
0.1% |
0.5
to 0.7 |
Tsvangirai,
Morgan |
49.4% |
2.4% |
47.0
to 51.8 |
One of the most important
changes in this election was the posting of vote counts at individual
polling stations. We urge ZEC to immediately publish polling station
results at the national level for all elections and the distribution
of postal ballots. Publishing polling station level results will
serve to enhance public confidence. ZESN will continue to observe
the electoral process through its conclusion and issue additional
statements as appropriate.
Visit the ZESN
fact
sheet
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