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Transcript of 'Hot Seat' interview with political commentator Brian Kagoro
Violet Gonda, SW Radio Africa
March 28, 2008

http://www.swradioafrica.com/pages/hotseat290308.htm

Violet Gonda: My guest on the programme Hot Seat is political commentator Brian Kagoro, who is here to give us his analysis of the crucial elections in Zimbabwe. Thank you for joining us.

Brian Kagoro: You are welcome Violet.

Violet Gonda: My guest on the programme Hot Seat is political commentator Brian Kagoro, who is here to give us his analysis of the crucial elections in Zimbabwe. Thank you for joining us.

Brian Kagoro: You are welcome Violet.

Violet: I am going to go straight into the pre-election environment. Publicly both Simba Makoni and Morgan Tsvangirai have said the election environment is not free and fair but on the ground it appears each candidate has been able to electioneer. So what constitutes a free and fair environment because the candidates have been having rallies that have not been interrupted by the police?

Kagoro: The key ones are that the environment must be free of intimidation but they must also have equitable access not only to the media but to information they require to prosecute their campaigns. And that information includes information relating to the voter's register, information relating to a number of ballot papers printed, information relating to the number of polling stations and information relating to the modalities of how the vote will be conducted and the number of polling stations; and also protection from and by the police. It covers procedural things - like the process of ensuring that the ruling party doesn't get preferential treatment, the process of ensuring not only the access to media but access to get hold of information that they require to prepare their campaign; that this is readily available, that no administrative barriers are put in place to frustrate that access.

Violet: Mugabe and his security forces have said they will not allow any opposition victory while the opponents have said the people will safeguard their vote if it is stolen. What do you think Zimbabweans should make of this?

Kagoro: Well that statement is an unfortunate statement. It is an undertaking or a promise to subvert the constitution and ordinarily therefore a criminal offence, which if a new government came into force it could use as a basis for dismissing those who have indicated that they would not show it respect. But I think also that the four individuals (in the security forces) cannot determine for the rest of the country what choices they should make. I think Zimbabweans are constitutionally entitled to choose whomsoever they desire as their leader at the poll that will be held on the 29 th of March.

The military's brief is to safeguard the security interests of Zimbabwe. The attempt by leaders of the armed forces to interfere in political matters is a fundamental breach of their terms of contract and I think it is a matter that the new government of Zimbabwe must carefully look into once it is in place.

Violet: Some observers have said we may see a Kenyan style revolt after the elections while others say it would be the government against the people. What do you see happening?

Kagoro: I am hopeful that Zimbabweans have the good sense not to go the Kenyan route but I am conscious though and aware of the fact that within the different contending parties, they each can count on a certain measure of support from section of the military - from the armed forces and that it would be unfortunate if the vote were stolen or an action were taken either by the military or other section of Zimbabwean society that would be instigatory or incite violence. If that did happen I trust that there would be an immediate and swift response by the international community and in particular by the African Union. It is inadmissible under the rules of the African Union for anyone to usurp power by force or unconstitutionally.

Violet: But do you think people's revolutionary threshold has reached its peak in Zimbabwe ?

Kagoro: No I am hopeful that this election would be a surprise for many people. You have a ruling party that is not prepared to lose. You have an opposition that is not entirely convinced that it will win or convinced that it will win and you have a mass of people - the Zimbabwean public - who are determined to see some sort of change. And I believe that the result would be shocking, resoundingly shocking. I believe that there are many things that the establishment has taken for granted and it would be fundamentally shocked and that the shock would be so profound that there will be no basis for the establishment to claim that the Zimbabwean people have not spoken.

Violet: Like what do you think the establishment has taken for granted? What issues?

Kagoro: They have taken for granted that the voter patterns would be similar to those we have seen replicated in the last few elections - where there has been a narrow victory for the establishment. Where they almost had a clean sweep of the rural areas and the op position has been confined to urban areas. I think the reality of these elections is the extent of despondency and the yearning for change and the appetite for change transcends the urban boundary deep into the rural areas. And I think there is a courage informed either by the present suffering or by a consciousness that says change is overdue within the rural sector. So I think there will be shocking results in some rural areas for the establishment and I think they would need post traumatic psycho-social counseling.

Violet: Now let's move on to the issue of the three main Presidential candidates - Robert Mugabe, Morgan Tsvangirai and Simba Makoni. Briefly what would you say are the weaknesses and strengths of these candidates.

Kagoro: Let me start of with Mugabe. If this election were being held generally in Africa he might have a slim chance of winning. Particularly because he has adopted Pan Africanist rhetoric, an anti imperialist rhetoric that gives a critique of the dealings of the West - that is the Europeans, the Americans - in Africa . That he has characterized the relationships of inequity - whether it's trade injustices or conditionalities that are imposed when loans are given or some other forms of hegemonic behavior by the global north that have kept Africa under-developed. Sometimes interferences to effect regime change against what would otherwise be popular regimes, in the interests not of the local people but of those regimes. So if elections were being held in Africa and the election issue were simply a critique of the Europeans and America and their negative role in Africa he would win.

But his relevance to the domestic situation is now totally, totally nil for several reasons: The bulk of the population in the country is under the age of 40 and even more are under the age of 30. That means they were born on the eve of independence. They have not been able to enter independence or to enjoy the benefits of independence which would have been freedom, access to greater opportunities and resources, access to better and quality public services, access to employment, decent employment and decent wages. A great number of those young people are unemployed. They are living in squalor. They have no particular hope for the future and the rhetoric of anti America , anti Europe - as accurate as it may be at a rhetorical sense - does not create jobs. So if and over and above that rhetoric Mugabe was able to create jobs, create opportunities for young people, create a sense of hope and a better future then his chances might be increased.

Simba Makoni's strength is he has experience in government. He has been in government since the age of 29 or so. So he has that experience, he has exposure and also he understands State craft - having been part of this system. His major handicap is that he came out late and that he is viewed by many as not having taken a decisive enough stance as the wrath that set into our nation unfolded; whether it be the crisis in Matabeleland or it be the economic decline or the madness post 2000 - the assault on democratic opposition, the human rights violations and some of the curious and irrational policies adopted, that have resulted in hyper-inflationary conditions. So there will be many that will not readily forgive him for not having been more resolute in his opposition. But there are many though will appreciate that he has albeit at the eleventh hour come out, taken a stance and therefore shows a willingness to join the party of those who are trying to bring about reconstitution, reconstruction and change in Zimbabwe.

For Morgan Tsvangirai, his real strength is that he has been in the trenches on the side of people who are oppressed, fighting a struggle that they get recognition for the re-humanisation of the Zimbabwean working people, Zimbabwean workers and Zimbabwean peasantry almost as a lone fighter - him and the colleagues in the pro-democracy movement in Zimbabwe . As such he carries - out of the three candidates - a heavier street credibility. His downside of course would be there would be many who believe that his experience with State craft might be wanting and therefore if one is looking for a decisive way to steer the economy out of its current doldrums that he might need greater support from other actors.

In a sense as I have always insisted, it is not a beauty contest. None of the candidates single handedly have all the qualities that are required to take the country out of its present quagmire. Ultimately the optimum solution would be whether before or after the elections for a combination of these candidates to come together, marry their respective strengths in order to minimize their respective weaknesses and chart a common platform for change in Zimbabwe . I think that the Puritans are wrong - those who are insisting on ideological purity - that we can only have people who have endured this level of suffering or those from ZANU who are saying they can only accept people who have endured or gone through this particular type of experience.

Violet: That's what I wanted to ask you, that many have said that Morgan Tsvangirai and Simba Makoni's economic policies are not that different and you actually asked some pertinent questions in an article recently were you asked that if this is the case, then what is the basis beyond their policies for judging one more preferable than the other and you asked if it is the length of time spent in ZANU PF or is it the amount of suffering endured at the hands of ZANU PF? You went on to ask and I quote: Which one of them is more inclusive in their style of leadership? Should we look at which one of them would be amenable to manipulation from the West? From ZANU PF? From big Corporations? Is it on the basis of looks? Experience in running institutions? Ability to administer an economy or level of education? Quite a lot of questions. So I would like to throw a general question back to you Brian - what do you think is the basis that people should judge these candidates on right now?

Brian: I think that the basic premise of judgement should be, for me; I am a child of the liberation struggle but also one of those who in founding the NCA believed that we needed a State President and a Prime Minister. I do not see a problem necessarily if one looks at the more preferred candidates in this election. I don't see a complication in them possibly being part of the same government - one as President and the one as Prime Minister because they bring to the table different competences. I think that Zimbabweans must base this election on the premise of leadership. Which one of these is the best leader?

Now leadership should not be judged purely on the basis of education nor should it be judged purely on the basis of suffering. Leadership should be judged by referencing which one of these leaders epitomises the value of a new Zimbabwe , the values of a more accountable and democratic Zimbabwe that we aspire for. A Zimbabwe based on transparency which is corruption free but a Zimbabwe that respects the fact that it is a sovereign nation and not a proxy of the interest of the West. But also a Zimbabwe that is not ruled purely by human brilliance but by a realization that it is a country endowed with its many gifted people. So we need a leader who has an openness to include embracing the many talents that God has gifted our people with in the rebuilding of the country. So we must be looking at the openness of the leader, the ability to accommodate diversity, the ability to accommodate giftings and to optimise them and to turn them into opportunities for national development. A leader who will spur and inspire people to become more creative, more productive and more caring about the country. But also a leader who is not amenable to manipulation by the present cash and the economy barons - those who have pegged off our mines, pegged off large chunks of our productive sector and our service sector.

In sense we are looking not just for an individual or we are looking for a team but because we have to vote for an individual I think the sole test should not be historical. It must be looking at the mental aptitude, looking at the moral aptitude of the person - saying who has the moral courage to take the tough decisions that need to be taken to move the country forward and who has the mental aptitude to withstand the challenges that were created by the present establishment, and who has the honesty to keep us sustained and visually focused on moving Zimbabwe to a new day.

Violet: And Brian you know the issue of human rights abuses have gotten a lot of play but in order for progress should this issue be put aside? Do you think the issue of human rights has been overplayed and right now people should forget about the past in order to move on?

Brian: Not at all I think human rights are fairly important. What has not happened is a clean balance between the political economy question human rights. So you have had extremes. You've had one set of people who say well it's about the economy really - once you get the economy going all these other things will be cured. And others will say unless you address the issue of civil and political rights there is no change occurring. I think this black and white characterization of solutions is problematic. As far as I am concerned, it will take us a long time to finally figure a formula that will compensate victims of the liberation struggle for the emotional, social, physical trauma that they endured. It will also take us an even longer time to compensate and assuage the pain that the people of Matabeleland and the Midlands went through as a result of the Gukurahundi genocidal acts. It will even be longer for the victims of the post 2000 violence meted out against the political opposition. But there is something that we can immediately do something about and I am not hearing a great commitment from our three candidates. This is dealing with the pillage of our economy, the pillage of state assets and the rampant corruption in pegging off mines by people who are well known and portions of the productive sector including in the farmlands. I am not hearing anyone talking about this sort of healing that they return the assets so that the resources that are received or realized from returning these assets to the people can be applied towards providing people with a different primary health care system, decent education systems, electricity and other services.

Violet: Now Brian I am running out of time so just in 10 seconds as I have just two minutes left - what role do you think civil society will play after the elections as it seems the different organizations are now divided along party lines?

Brian: I think civil society will be the most traumatized of the lot firstly because they have auctioned their souls to the different political formations. I think that the first role will be one of reconstruction. We need to redefine a space called the civic sector which is not dominated by political party interests - that's one. Number two I think civil society needs to redefine its agenda around not only the civil and political rights issues and constitutional reform but define an agenda around the more structural issues - the agrarian question, the national question, the industrial question. Civil society in Zimbabwe has avoided dealing with questions of what type of economy do we require. I appreciate the great work that ZIMCORD ( The Zimbabwe Conference on Reconstruction and Development) has started in this regard but it needs to be expanded. I think the dialogue on the economy, the type of tax system, the type of monetary system needs to be a democratic and popular debate otherwise we will have a new constitution with the same old economy and ways of conducting and dealing with economic matters. And that economy has resulted in poverty and the impoverishment of people, the erosion of real wages and erosion of people's rights and access to public services. So unless if civil society begins to apply itself to these fundamental issues I think there will be a gross misdirection. What is promising to be a great hope will result in I think immense darkness. So in a sense unless if civil society introspects and begins to critically look at fundamental issues of reconstruction - what do we do post Mugabe - civil society is wasting not only trying, but the money its donors are giving to them.

Violet: With all that you have said on this program today in terms of how people should judge the candidates this weekend, who are you going to vote for because you will have that opportunity to vote on Saturday? Who are you going to vote for based on where you think Zimbabwe should be going and who the best candidate is?

Brian: I am very clear I am going to vote for my councillor and I am going to vote for my MP and as far as the President is concerned I have always voted for the same person and because my vote is not based on friendship but this time around I think I will give both candidates a call when I get home and on the basis of the conversation that we have I will cast my vote. So this one is not a friendship vote for me anymore. I think I have just a simple question for the two candidates - the only candidates that are likely to get my vote. There is one that has traditionally gotten my vote, always received my vote and then the other one of course is a new entrant. And I just want to ask them one honest question and if they give me an answer that is satisfactory that will move my vote in the way it must go. So I'll keep my vote a secret for now. There needs to be compelling reasons for the vote to shift from the way I have always traditionally voted. Unlike most Zimbabweans, whilst I support all sorts of changes that comes there are people that I have been with for a long time, that I have known for a long time and I think that they ordinarily deserve my vote but I have certain questions that I would like them to answer.

Violet: Thank you very much Brian and I guess Zimbabweans need to understand that their vote is secret and thank you for agreeing to talk on the program Hot Seat.

Brian: All right you're welcome.

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