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Pressure SADC on Zimbabwe urge rights activists
Grace Kwinje
March 25, 2008

The international community's response to the outcome of Zimbabwe's March 29 elections will be crucial, human rights activists say.

At stake is not only democracy for long-suffering Zimbabweans, but also whether the pariah state will rejoin the community of nations and benefit from much needed donor relief for reconstruction, taking it back to glory days when Zimbabwe was the breadbasket of Africa.

Zimbabwe's President, Robert Mugabe is facing a stiff challenge from former ally Dr Simba Makoni, long-serving opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai and another little known candidate, Langton Towungana.

A free and fair election would be rewarded with refreshed legitimacy for a Harare government, even Mugabe's. But by the look of things, this is not likely. Mugabe seems more determined than ever to assure that campaigning, district demarcation, voter rolls and vote counting for Saturday's elections - favour his ruling Zanu-PF party.

Mugabe has been condemned by human rights groups and many governments over the pre-election period's many flaws, and it is unlikely that many of these will accept the outcome.

Aside from the many domestic groups which have long objected to political repression, the international watchdog Human Rights Watch (HRW) and Brussels based International Crisis Group (ICG) have joined those dissatisfied with the current political environment.

The ICG report, entitled 'Prospects from a flawed election', details the failure of the SADC mediation under South African President Thabo Mbeki. The main areas of concern are a violent climate, abuse of state resources and anticipated polling day problems.

Meanwhile another report compiled by the HRW, "All Over Again: Human Rights Abuses and Flawed Electoral Conditions in Zimbabwe's Coming General Elections," concedes that there are "some improvements on paper to election regulations". But, according to Georgette Gagnon, HRW's Africa director, "While there are four candidates running for president and many political parties involved, the election process itself is skewed."

In the closing days, can measures be added to compel Harare to change course?

For example, there have been veiled threats from top security personnel of a coup should opposition candidates win. Would challenging Mugabe to identify and arrest potential treasonous elements in the armed forces not be worthwhile?

Such a challenge could only be made through diplomatic pressure on the regional body of governments, the Southern African Development Community (SADC). Warns the ICG, "If the region's leaders were again to recognise an illegitimate government, Zimbabwe's dramatic economic disintegration would continue, and the inevitable early next round of the struggle over Mugabe's succession could easily provoke bloodshed."

According to Human Rights lawyer and Executive Director of the South-African based Zimbabwe Exiles Forum, Gabriel Shumba, "In the event that elections are not free and fair, SADC must be forced to condemn Zimbabwe, through pressure even in the area of trade. The issue of Zimbabwe in terms of general human rights violations should be discussed at the United Nations Security Council level. Consequences stemming from
such a discussion should follow."

Maureen Kademaunga, Gender and Human Rights officer of the National Student Union (ZINASU), remarked recently, "People are looking towards any possibility for change. If the Mugabe regime lives on, there is absolutely no hope for change. What we need is transition towards a new kind of government, with principled leaders, who really are accountable to the people".

Mbeki, who was mandated by SADC to be mediator in March 2007, argues that there is no reason why elections in Zimbabwe won't be free and fair.

The opposition parties agree that Mbeki's mediation did not facilitate the democratic reforms that had been promised. Critics dismiss the mediation as a charade, a time-buying gimmick by the Mugabe regime.

To add salt to the open wound, President Mugabe, last week made a Presidential decree allowing police officers into polling stations during voting. Yet the repressive role of security forces was one of the contentious issues during the SADC negotiations, leading to the amendments to the Electoral Act that this role be contained.

According to Tsvangirai's secretary general, Tendai Biti, "It is quite clear that Mugabe's actions are an assault on the SADC dialogue therefore an assault on SADC itself. Mugabe is clearly daring SADC knowing clearly that the latter will blink. Unfortunately it does not appear likely that anyone in SADC would have the guts to stand up to Mugabe. It is obvious that the Old Boys mentality which African institutions have been accused of generating still remains operational."

In reply, Zimbabwe's ambassador to South Africa, Simon Moyo, claims that Mbeki has acted to the best of his ability, "It now comes as more of a shocker than anything else, in fact amounting to arrogance and disrespect, for the MDC to make the trip to South Africa to announce that Mbeki has not been an honest broker."

This sets the stage for continuing polarisation, with opposition forces, much of civil society and Western countries seeming to back a change of government (whether led by Tsvangirai or Makoni), while African countries support Mugabe.

International sanctions play a minor role. Top Zimbabwean government officials were in 2002 slapped with targeted "smart sanctions" and travel bans by Australia, the European Union and the United States. Australia went further last year by targeting the children of top Government officials studying at its universities, who have since been deported to Zimbabwe. Canadian legislators recently also condemned Mugabe.

A March 11 meeting of Ottawa's Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs and International Development noted "grave concern about the elections in Zimbabwe and the harassment of opposition parties and candidates, and call on the Government of Canada to take all reasonable measures, including the participation of election observers to promote free and fair elections in Zimbabwe."

A day earlier, the Council of the European Union repeated its concern about the humanitarian, political and economic situation in Zimbabwe, which "may endanger the holding of free and fair elections".

If these comments are anything to go by then it means Zimbabwe will remain a pariah state. And also if actions by the Mugabe regime during the campaign are a sign of things to come, how will Zimbabwe's democrats react in the event that he rigs the election and declares himself winner?

The Zimbabwe Human Rights NGO Forum reports at least 300 cases of politically motivated violence against the opposition, recorded in the month of January alone. This intimidation has had the effect of quelling any ideas of an opposition uprising.

But how to channel anger at another stolen election into constructive forms - in contrast to Kenya, which saw only an elite power-sharing deal emerge from widespread protest - appears to be the primary challenge just below the surface, one which will re-emerge as soon as votes are cast on Saturday.

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