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Time for the rescue
The Economist
March 19, 2008

http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10880534

For the first time in 28 years of increasingly reckless and vile rule, Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe looks as if he may go But only may. He has rigged elections before the one on March 29th. He has ruined his country. He has the ruthless, delusional fanaticism of a clever man who is frightened of being toppled-and perhaps put on trial for his copious human-rights abuses. But this time there is at least a chance he may quit. And if he does, the West, along with Zimbabwe's comparatively very rich big neighbour, South Africa, and its increasingly prosperous small one, diamond-wealthy Botswana, should get together, with institutions such as the IMF and the World Bank, to pile in as generously as possible with advice, cash and, of course, some minimal conditions.

When inflation is running at more than 100,000% a year, even the cleverest economists are hard put to know what to do. In Zimbabwe, the black-market exchange rate is nearly ten times the official one. Much of the economy is now informal. Some 80% of the people are no longer in officially counted jobs. To an extent, the economy is already becoming dollarised. Any workable reform would start with a fiscal stabilisation, halt the furious printing of money, let a new currency float down to the unofficial rate, then probably peg it to a (relatively) solid currency, perhaps the South African rand. There would be much pain. At the least, generous outsiders would need to provide a welfare safety-net.

But first things first. Mr Mugabe is still there. If he merely stepped aside to let one of his fellow villains in his corrupt and vicious ZANU-PF party take over, leaving the apparatus of misrule untouched, the West would be foolish to rush in with misplaced kindness. Above all, it would be unfair on the wretched Zimbabweans, for the cash would go not to them but to the fat cats and thugs who have plundered the country. No one knows how the coming elections will play out. But there is a fair chance that the presidential contest will go to a second round, which should boost a challenger's chances, were he to run off against the incumbent.

Cracks have opened in Mr Mugabe's party since he has been tackled by an insider, Simba Makoni, a decent technocrat whom many in the West and in South Africa would love to see running a revamped Zimbabwe. Unfortunately, he looks unlikely to win, even if Mr Mugabe were to give him a fair chance of doing so.

The opposition party that carries more brawn and more voters may still be the one led by Morgan Tsvangirai, a courageous but less erudite trade unionist whose skull Mr Mugabe's policemen broke only a year ago. Mr Mugabe would be even more loth to let Mr Tsvangirai win-and could well stop him with violence or prison. The ideal would be a government of national unity, with Messrs Tsvangirai and Makoni at the head, perhaps with a clutch of Mr Mugabe's cannier friends switching sides with some of their machinery of government.

Mr Makoni says he would afford Mr Mugabe a peaceful retirement. Mr Mugabe's intemperate expulsion of the white farmers was what sent his economy into a tailspin, for Zimbabwe's manufacturing, now decayed, was largely linked to their output. No Zimbabwean government can reverse that action, disgraceful though it was; the land issue is far too sensitive. But any sensible new administration must first carry out a land audit, give decent compensation, then arrange for leaseholds, management contracts, surety of tenure and individual title deeds across the land, including the communal areas. Most white farmers, though sorely needed, will not return. Bobbing away As the 84-year-old Mr Mugabe enters his last lap, Western governments, particularly those of Britain and America, would be wise to hold back from overtly backing either of his challengers. But that does not mean outsiders should be completely silent. For too long the West has left the diplomacy to South Africa's now lame-duck president, Thabo Mbeki. It should now make it clear that once a new Zimbabwean government shows a willingness to respect property, human rights and the rule of law, the West and its friends in southern Africa will be more generous than ever. There is no time to lose; Zimbabwe and Zimbabweans are dying. It is a tragedy that has gone on for far too long.

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