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Emboldened rivals square up to Mugabe
Alec Russell, The Financial Times (UK)
March 16, 2008

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/26ac1490-f384-11dc-b6bc-0000779fd2ac.html

In the darkened provincial hall, the audience of 40-50 Zimbabweans could hardly see the man on the stage who was claiming to have come to liberate them from President Robert Mugabe's autocratic rule. Moments before he was due to speak, one of Zimbabwe's rolling power cuts had hit the region. Nervous spectators speculated it had been timed to undermine the appearance of the speaker, Simba Makoni, a former finance minister and one-time stalwart of the ruling Zanu PF party. "Businessmen cannot buy goods from wholesalers without giving a kickback," said the first to his feet, a haggard man in a tatty safari suit. "To drive I have to bribe a policeman. To get water I have to bribe someone from the city council. Such is the state of corruption in our country. Once in power how will you remove this?" "Foreign investors are afraid of investing in this country," said a second. "If you are elected, how will you attract foreign business? How do you envisage engaging international countries so we become again part of the global village?"

The questions might seem run-of-the-mill given the parlous situation of Zimbabwe after 28 years of Mr Mugabe's rule: inflation exceeds 100,000 per cent; headteachers earn the equivalent of US$18 a month and supermarkets lack all but the most basic goods. But this was not a forum for Zimbabwean exiles in London or Johannesburg, strongholds of the several million estimated to have fled deteriorating conditions in their homeland. This was the central town of Masvingo, traditionally a bastion of Mugabe support, and most of the audience until recently regarded themselves as Zanu PF supporters. "I'm coming to say let's join together, let's get Zimbabwe working again," Mr Makoni told them to shouts of Simba. "People in rural areas still have the idea that there is a hidden camera in the ballot box. Those of you who live in towns, go home and tell your rural relations they are free to vote."

As Mr Mugabe, 84, seeks another presidential term at elections on March 29, his record is under open attack as never before. Morgan Tsvangirai, the veteran leader of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change, is touring the country addressing fervent rallies, calling for a clear-out of Zanu PF. While Mr Makoni's campaign has less overt support than the MDC leader's, his defection has clearly shaken Mr Mugabe's inner circle. Few senior party officials have publicly endorsed Mr Makoni, but his aides insist that privately he has the backing of many more, who will direct their constituents on polling day to vote against the president and also try to block skulduggery. Outwardly undaunted, Mr Mugabe is flying across the country by helicopter addressing rallies of bussed-in supporters, painting his rivals as stooges of the west, in particular Britain, the old colonial power. They want to return Zimbabwe to the control of whites, he maintains. Only he is truly interested in "empowering" black Zimbabweans.

Such nationalist rhetoric appears to have lost much of its old resonance. Mr Mugabe himself admitted for the first time the other day that the country faced an economic crisis. "Even the elderly people [traditionally his staunchest supporters] have lost hope and want him to go," said a head-teacher in Masvingo province. "I am fed up. Either Simba or Morgan would be better." And yet as Mr Tsvangirai, head of the larger of the MDC's two factions, knows all too well, it is not easy to defeat the incumbent who has all the powers of the state at his disposal to ensure victory. Since the MDC's formation eight years ago, the party has lost three elections widely condemned by independent observers as deeply flawed. While there have been far fewer reports of state-sponsored violence against opposition supporters than in the last three campaigns, the election remains skewed in the president's favour.

The national police chief made his feelings clear on Friday when he denounced Mr Mugabe's rivals as western "puppets". State television and radio, by far the most influential media, are little more than mouthpieces for Mr Mugabe. NGOs monitoring the elections suspect that as many as 20 per cent of the names on the voters' roll are of dead and absentee people who will "vote" for Zanu PF. Diplomats highlight a shortfall of voting stations in areas where Mr Mugabe is least popular. Recent constitutional changes negotiated in mediation talks hosted by South Africa are dismissed by many analysts as perfunctory. The changes were "much too late", said Brian Penduka, from the Zimbabwe Human Rights Forum. The opposition candidates are pinning their hopes on a run-off. In theory that happens if the winner does not get more than 50 per cent of the vote.

Lovemore Madhuku, chairman of the National Constitutional Assembly of Zimbabwe, and a veteran critic of the president, believes such hopes are deluded. "Mugabe is not facing a serious threat. The electoral situation is so defective and the ruling regime has a grip on the process in such a way that, despite the uncertainty felt by most of the electorate, he will still win." His opponents say that at the least there will be a run-off. They are wrong. The regime is confident the methods they have put in place will ensure the result they need." In the Masvingo hall, after Mr Makoni answered the first three questions, an aide urgently drew proceedings to a close. They had already exceeded the 30-minutes allowed for their meeting. The police could come at any time. They dispersed into the night, hoping but not exactly expectant that an upset was genuinely in sight.

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