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Victory would leave Makoni with much to do
The Cape Times (SA)
March 11 , 2008

http://www.zwnews.com/issuefull.cfm?ArticleID=18354

Mugabe's lust for power has given any winner all the levers to rule.

On the face of it, Simba Makoni faces a big problem even if does pull off a shock victory in the March 29 Zimbabwean presidential election. He has no political party contesting the parliamentary elections on the same day to provide him with certain support, though some independent candidates are pledged to him and some ruling Zanu PF candidates are believed to be secret supporters. But, rather ironically, the absence of a political party will not badly hamstring him precisely because President Robert Mugabe has loaded the presidency with so much power that parliament is really little more than a rubber stamp. Mugabe started off with a constitution strong on executive powers, and carefully and strategically added to those with 18 gruesome constitutional amendments. The president now only needs parliament to change the constitution, make new laws and pass the budget.

The president already appoints the judges, all provincial governors, all senior civil servants, the head of the electoral commission, the men who accredit or ban journalists and newspapers. There are no checks and balances in the constitution, no independent institutions, such as a human rights commission. Zimbabwe's constitution is a hard right wing of set controls without any balances, which dictate every aspect of life, including the price of bread. If Mugabe now, or perhaps someone else after March 29, can't get enough laws passed to rule effectively, he can, in an emergency, fall back on the handy Presidential Powers Temporary Measures Act, which allows rule by presidential decree, in six-month tranches. At the last presidential election, Movement for Democratic Change lawyers for Morgan Tsvangirai were in court appealing against one of Mugabe's electoral decrees 12 hours before polls opened.

The present constitution is an abortion, but it may just turn out to be useful to Makoni should he do what seems unimaginable, and that is rid Zimbabwe of the unbearable burden of Mugabe's destructive rule. Makoni would have to unravel, dump or, if necessary, simply ignore some appalling laws at the beginning, and might even have to deal with some unrest if he does not carefully manage a losing Mugabe's vanity. He would also have to move in on the central bank governor Gideon Gono, who now wields the most day-to-day power in Zimbabwe. Gono's term of office only expires in October and nothing can be done about the mad, multiple exchange rates and hugely-inflationary printing of money until he has been dispatched and the bank returned to its traditional role of fighting inflation.

There are a few dozen "independent" MPs and senators, largely from the old Zanu PF, the one which brought Zimbabwe to independence and who will provide a rump of support for Makoni, if they win their seats. Makoni also has support from the opposition MDC faction led by Arthur Mutambara. Mutambara's party will probably win most legislative seats from the second city, Bulawayo. His candidates and some put forward by Makoni from the reformist wing of Zanu PF, in rural areas in the two Matabeleland provinces, will probably win a chunk of seats - and possibly enough for a coalition. The other MDC faction led by founding president Morgan Tsvangirai, which will probably win all the Harare seats and seems to be attracting large numbers to its rallies in other urban areas, including in the heart of Zanu PF strongholds, could also perhaps assist him in parliament.

There will be some Zanu PF MPs in parliament who may have been elected on the party ticket, but - when the chips are down - will support Makoni in parliament when necessary. So his rule, if he wins, will be easy. His problem remains how to get there and it's not going to be as easy as his rhetoric would suggest - and certainly not the landslide victory he is boasting about. Many ordinary voters in urban areas who traditionally support the MDC are genuinely convinced that Makoni is a "stalking horse": for Mugabe. Zanu PF's violent political history, its long control of the massively partisan daily press and all radio and TV, have produced a population, especially in urban areas, which depends on informal information, much of it rumour. Some of the rumors are deliberately put about, such as some of those about Makoni being a stalking horse.

Unfortunately for Makoni, some in Tsvangirai's well-heeled faction, including those who still supported Zanu PF until the 2000 elections, are spreading the stalking horse smear. Or are looking for other dirt with which to taint Makoni. Rumours however, have their advantages. On Sunday, the best of the day was that Vice-President Joice Mujuru had locked up her husband, former army commander Solomon Mujuru, to prevent him attending Makoni's Harare rally. Anyone predicting Makoni's support, or lack of it, in rural areas is relying on urban gossip among the chattering classes, which is very, very far from the heavily populated communal areas where 60% of voters live. These are Mugabe's strongholds. But the people there are suffering unprecedented hardships. Makoni went into Mashonaland East for a drive-through campaign two weeks ago and he was mobbed. That, however, is a Mujuru stronghold, and Solomon Mujuru, whatever he might say in public, is quietly supporting Makoni.

How will Makoni do in Mugabe's home province, Mashonaland West, or Mashonaland Central, or in the most populous province, Masvingo? How will he manage if Mugabe thinks he needs to cheat as he cheated in 2002? There are many, many ways he could do it and never be caught, or the courts could delay any electoral challenges almost indefinitely. There are indications from Masvingo, at least, that headmen, paid by Mugabe to be loyal, have broken ranks, but are encouraging peasants to vote for Tsvangirai, not Makoni. Political scientist Brian Raftopoulos said last week that, if Mugabe lost the presidential poll, it would be less traumatic for Zimbabweans if Makoni emerged as the winner, rather than Tsvangirai: "Mugabe has said since 2000 that Morgan Tsvangirai will never rule Zimbabwe. "There has been no reason to believe he has changed that position. So the acrimony, a possible fightback and the responses from state and maybe even from the army, would be stronger against a Tsvangirai victory."

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