Back to Index

This article participates on the following special index pages:

Simba Makoni is getting up steam
The Economist
February 28, 2008

http://www.economist.com/world/africa/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10766775

President Robert Mugabe may face a real challenge in the election on March 29th. True to form, Robert Mugabe celebrated his 84th birthday last week in high style, jovially dismissing his latest serious challenger for the presidency as a prostitute and a frog. But Simba Makoni, who was kicked out of the ruling ZANU-PF after he broke ranks last month to declare his candidacy for the presidency in an election on March 29th, is shaping up to be no joke for the incumbent.

Untainted by corruption, he is appealing to ruling-party and opposition supporters alike, especially the urban middle class and the young. His detractors admit he is competent. His surprise candidacy has breathed life into a poll that most observers presumed would be a shoo-in for Mr Mugabe. Immediately after Mr Makoni's declaration, thousands of people rushed to register. Eager volunteers throng his leafy campaign headquarters in the centre of Harare, the capital.

Morgan Tsvangirai, one of the two leaders of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), which split three years ago, still has quite a following, especially among urban working-class voters, and he still gets credit for opposing Mr Mugabe and his ZANU-PF for the past nine years. But feuds have weakened both parts of the MDC. Its appeal in rural areas is weak. And a smaller faction of it, led by Arthur Mutambara, has now endorsed Mr Makoni.

The former finance minister says he will try to embrace all political groups, including decent people from ZANU-PF, after he has won the election. "We believe the crisis is bigger than one group and requires the total mobilisation of this whole nation," he says. Though Mr Mutambara has endorsed Mr Makoni, Mr Tsvangirai seems loth to close ranks before the poll. Mr Makoni claims that most of ZANU-PF's leadership supports him. None of the ruling party's heavyweights publicly admits to backing him; they will almost certainly hedge their bets until the election. But few have criticised him or tried to block his candidacy.

At a local level, grumbling in the ruling party is getting louder; bickering and division have marred its primaries. A long-standing ZANU-PF man running for a council seat on March 29th under the party banner admits that the party has lost its vim since independence and no longer attracts the young. Corruption, he laments, is endemic. "We used to laugh at Nigeria over corruption," he says. "Not any more."

Mr Makoni has launched his electoral ship with aplomb; it already seems surprisingly well-equipped. Ibbo Mandaza, one of Mr Makoni's advisers, says there is a team in every constituency. Businessmen and people from Zimbabwe's 3m-strong diaspora are said to be opening their wallets. Scarce fuel has been organised and scores of rallies and events scheduled across the country before polling day.

Though no picnic, opposition campaigning looks a bit easier than in previous elections. According to the Zimbabwe Election Support Network (ZESN), there has so far been little violence. Mr Mandaza says the ruling party's "machinery of violence" has collapsed. The ZANU-PF man standing for a local council says he now openly engages with his opposition rivals. A headmaster in a rural area east of Harare says that campaigning is much easier this time around. The opposition is contesting almost all parliamentary and local seats in his area-a ruling party stronghold. That did not happen last time.

But does this mean Mr Mugabe is on the skids? It is hard to gauge the electoral weight of rural voters, who provide most of ZANU-PF's support, but it is certainly heavy. "This is where the election will be won or lost," says Sydney Masamvu of the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based think-tank. A recent redrawing of the electoral map increased the weight of rural constituencies in parliament.

The ZANU-PF candidate for a local council predicts that, though Mr Makoni has the ability, vision and record to be president, he will make few inroads in rural areas, which the ruling party has controlled through intimidation and patronage-for instance, by distributing land, equipment and food to card-carrying party members. The rural headmaster also says Mr Makoni has little chance outside the towns unless his campaign takes off, which will require immense energy and organisation. "People here know Robert Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai, but not Simba Makoni," he says.

Moreover, many voters who detest Mr Mugabe are suspicious of Mr Makoni. Some MDC people say he may even have been planted to divide the opposition in the towns. "He needs to say who backs him," says one. Others who have been fighting Mr Mugabe's regime for years dismiss him because he was in ZANU-PF's leadership for so long. On the other side, diehard Mugabe fans think him a traitor.

Mr Makoni dismisses such concerns. "There's nowhere I go in the country where I am not greeted by name," he says, adding that he is "nobody's tool". But he does not disavow his long service in ZANU-PF governments. "I accept collective responsibility, but it does not operate on unanimity." He says he tried to change the party from within, always speaking out against bad policies. He is banking on a groundswell of support to loosen ZANU-PF's grip in the rural areas. He is embarking on a country tour that will last until the election, starting with a rally in Bulawayo, Zimbabwe's second city and capital of the deeply disgruntled Ndebele minority.

Much will also depend on whether he can ensure that the election is not stolen. ZESN doubts the electoral environment can allow for a free and fair poll. A new constitution and reforms of repressive media and security laws were agreed on during negotiations between the opposition and the ruling party overseen by Thabo Mbeki, South Africa's president. But they will not be implemented before the poll.

There is no independent radio or television. The voters roll, which Mr Makoni's team is combing to spot and correct discrepancies, is highly unreliable. His people are also training thousands of polling agents to staff the 11,000 voting stations. They expect other tricks, such as the ruling party providing too few ballot papers in urban polling stations, where the opposition is strongest. But Mr Makoni's team thinks sympathisers in ZANU-PF will give valuable tip-offs to help stymie the rigging.

The presidential poll is a two-round affair. Mr Mugabe could well win the first round-but Mr Makoni's planners and the MDC bet he will fail to get more than 50% of votes cast. If they are right, the momentum should be with the challenger.

Please credit www.kubatana.net if you make use of material from this website. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License unless stated otherwise.

TOP