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Mugabe 'could be swept away' if forced into run-off
Dumisani Muleya, Business Day
February 21, 2008

http://www.businessday.co.za/articles/world.aspx?ID=BD4A710931

President Robert Mugabe will probably be forced into a second round of voting after next month's critical elections due to the dynamic challenge he is facing from former minister Simba Makoni.

This could result in the eventual defeat of Mugabe if he fails to win 51% of the vote — needed for him to be declared winner — during the elections on March 29.

Under the Electoral Act, when two or more presidential candidates are nominated and no outright poll winner emerges, a second round of voting follows within 21 days.

If the final two candidates are split evenly after the vote, parliament has to sit as an electoral college to choose the winner.

It is widely held that Mugabe is unlikely to win 51% of the vote, a situation that would force him to enter into a risky run-off with either Makoni or main opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) leader Morgan Tsvangirai. If Mugabe is forced into a run-off, it would almost certainly give his rival unstoppable momentum.

The law was amended in 2005 in the hope Mugabe would retire at the end of his term next month, and a popularly elected successor would take over. In the past, a candidate could become president without getting a clear poll majority.

In Zambia, President Levy Mwanawasa was re-elected with 27% of the vote. The remainder was shared among other candidates. In Kenya, former president Daniel arap Moi used to defeat the fragmented opposition by getting more votes individually, though they would have won the popular vote.

Jonathan Moyo, a former Mugabe spokesman who was a key strategist in his controversial 2002 re-election, said his former boss would have to go into a run-off, as he would not win 51% of the vote.

"The likelihood of any of the candidates getting 51% is between slim and none because for the first time we have three candidates who are likely to draw solid support from different strongholds," Moyo said.

"There is quite a sizeable chance of disgruntled voters from Zanu (PF) and the MDC actually voting for Makoni — although he may be working alone — out of desperation, believing he is a solution."

Moyo said none of the three candidates was strong enough to win an outright victory.

"When you have three strong candidates in such an environment, it is very unlikely any one of those will command a total majority of votes cast."

Moyo said Mugabe's bid to avoid facing the elections alone by combining the presidential and parliamentary polls would eventually fail because of a potential run-off.

"What makes this election quite intriguing is that Mugabe called for harmonised elections to avoid a situation where he comes head-on with one candidate — he did not want to run against the MDC candidate alone.

"He wanted to be assisted by his council candidates at ward level, House of Assembly and senatorial candidates at constituency level. Yet the stark reality he now faces is that he will most likely, if not certainly, run alone," he said.

"The looming possibility of a run-off renders meaningless Mugabe's attempt to harmonize elections in the hope of riding on its wave. This might turn out to be a major boomerang."

Moyo said Mugabe could be swept out of power during the run-off. "If there is a wave in a run-off, a huge anti-Mugabe wave, that would be the end of him," he said.

However, Justice Minister Patrick Chinamasa said a second round would not be necessary as president Mugabe would win "resoundingly".

He described the opposition forces as "makeshift" and said Mugabe's opponents did not have a platform or any cohesion.

Emmerson Mnangagwa, a long-serving minister and key Mugabe ally, said his boss was "extremely confident", 99,9% certain, of victory.

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