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No tea party for Makoni
Mail & Guardian (SA)
February 08, 2008

http://www.mg.co.za/articlePage.aspx?articleid=331979&area=/insight/insight__africa/

Simba Makoni chose a five-star hotel to announce his candidacy for Zimbabwe's presidency recently, but he will have to get down in the trenches if he is to pose a serious threat to President Robert Mugabe.

His announcement whipped up a great deal of enthusiasm among a Zimbabwean electorate demoralised by the opposition's failure at the weekend to agree on a united front against Mugabe.

But Makoni's real challenge is to show he has the clout to attract enough grassroots support to fend off an already dirty campaign against his candidacy, and to prove he can forge the difficult alliances with senior Zanu-PF officials and elements from the opposition that he needs to weaken Mugabe.

Perhaps in a taste of the challenge that lies ahead for him, the recriminations have already come in sharp and swift. Emmerson Mnangagwa, Zanu-PF secretary for legal affairs and himself a presidential hopeful, announced Makoni's immediate expulsion from the party.

Mnangagwa said: "From the time he held that press conference, he left the party. The position is that once the process to elect president, MP or councillor has been carried out and you still want to stand for that same post, you immediately expel yourself."

War veterans, the muscle of Mugabe's campaigns since 2000, said they were "taking control of party headquarters" to root out "traitors" backing Makoni.

"Traitors know how Zanu-PF deals with sellouts," a war veterans' leader said.

Makoni's squeaky-clean image makes it hard for his critics to dig up the dirt on him, but his opponents are not leaving anything to chance. Makoni's youthful looks would normally be an asset when facing an electorate desperate for a fresh start, but according to the state Herald newspaper, "his boyish looks are a reflection of a prepubescent mindset".

Analysts warn that tougher battles lie ahead. First, he has to find the key to unlocking Mugabe's grip on the rural vote, which he needs if he is to pose a serious challenge.

Then he will need to dispel accusations by sections of the opposition MDC that his candidacy is merely an elaborate ruse designed by Mugabe to split the opposition vote further.

Both factions of the MDC have publicly welcomed Makoni, but senior officials say privately that they are wary of his bid, as he is likely to attract most of his support from the MDC's urban mainstay.

The MDC was already in disarray before last weekend and the failure of unity talks further disillusioned its supporters. But the spark was back in the campaign after Makoni's announcement, and one official at a voter registration centre in central Harare attributed increased registration activity on Wednesday to "the announcement".

There has been speculation that Makoni could seal an alliance with the MDC faction led by Arthur Mutambara which, though smaller than rival Morgan Tsvangirai's grouping, has a strong following in rural Matabeleland.

Makoni, however, declined to comment on such speculation and said he would release his full strategy within the coming week.

But he did claim to have widespread support from political players across the divide: "I know I will not be in this campaign alone. There will be many of us, a great many of us."

Now expelled from the party, Makoni knows he has taken a major gamble. The last man to split from Zanu-PF and directly challenge Mugabe was Edgar Tekere, who had been secretary-general of Zanu-PF.

Like Makoni, Tekere had also gambled on the prospect of disgruntled senior members leaving Mugabe for his party. But this did not happen and, after his Zimbabwe Unity Movement (ZUM) lost badly in the polls in 1990, Tekere spent years in near-destitution, later writing to Mugabe asking to be allowed back.

This week, though, Tekere told the Mail&Guardian that he believed Makoni had made "a very bold move", and pledged support for his campaign.

Other commentators are not so sure. Eldred Masunungure, a University of Zimbabwe political scientist, acknowledged the public excitement over Makoni's announcement, but warned Makoni to prepare "for Zanu-PF's viciousness. This is not going to be a tea party".

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