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'No
Hope' for opposition in next year's poll
John Kaninda, Business Day (SA)
October 01, 2007
http://www.businessday.co.za/articles/topstories.aspx?ID=BD4A576272
THE odds are
stacked against the Zimbabwean opposition Movement for Democratic
Change (MDC) in next year's presidential election, say analysts.
At an MDC rally
in Masvingo at the weekend, Morgan Tsvangirai, the president of
one of two MDC factions, told supporters that the signing of an
agreement with ruling Zanu (PF) on a constitutional
amendment did not mean that the party had "sold out".
Tsvangirai said
the deal would help create a conducive environment for elections
next year.
"The objective
of talking to Zanu (PF) is to create a free and fair election environment
in this country," Tsvangirai told thousands of supporters at
his party's eighth anniversary celebrations.
He said the
MDC would "walk to victory and democracy" in joint presidential,
legislative and municipal elections next year.
But he said
he would not take part in national elections if Zimbabwe's President
Robert Mugabe continued political repression.
"There
is no point in participating in repressive elections if the environment
is not conducive," the MDC leader said.
Tsvangirai insisted the elections would be meaningless without the
votes of millions of exiled Zimbabweans in countries such as SA,
Botswana and the UK.
In a surprise
show of unity with Zanu (PF), MDC politicians last week approved
constitutional reforms which provide for joint parliamentary and
presidential polls next year and the redrawing of constituency boundaries.
Later reports
said the MDC took the position at the behest of President Thabo
Mbeki as a goodwill measure in talks with the ruling Zanu (PF).
Tsvangirai was
addressing Saturday's rally in the southern city of Masvingo to
celebrate the MDC's eight anniversary of what it calls "unarmed
combat against the dictatorship". Tsvangirai said it was encouraging
that Zanu (PF) had agreed to hold talks with the opposition and
that regional leaders now recognised that the country was suffering
from a crisis of governance.
Analysts said
any opposition would be worthless without real change both before
and after the elections.
"You are
looking at a very vicious regime, with a determination to stay in
power," said John Makumbe, a political analyst at the University
of Zimbabwe.
"But it
is also desperate, because it has committed so many sins in the
past.
"It will
move heaven and earth in order to stay in power."
Because of this,
some have given up on any chance of any faction of the MDC winning
an election in 2008.
Joseph Kurebwa,
a local political analyst, said: "They don't stand a ghost
of a chance.
"Even if
they were to go to the polls united, they would still face huge
hurdles. Now that they are split, that will significantly reduce
their electoral chances."
For many analysts,
the opposition has lost its direction and strength since it split
and following the brutal government crackdown in March.
They say the
MDC needs a change of strategy.
The Sunday Independent
reported that Zimbabwe had told foreign-owned companies unhappy
with a controversial company seizure law approved this week "to
pack their bags and go".
The new Indigenisation
and Empowerment Bill approved by parliament last week compels
all foreign-owned companies to sell at least 51% of their equity
to black Zimbabweans or risk losing their trading licences.
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