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Zanu PF could win next year's elections: survey
Hendricks Chizhanje, ZimOnline
September 26, 2007

http://www.zimonline.co.za/Article.aspx?ArticleId=2084

HARARE - President Robert Mugabe's ruling ZANU PF party could win next year's parliamentary election ahead of two factions of the splintered main opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) party, according to a survey by the Harare-based Mass Public Opinion Institute (MPOI).

The survey whose results were released on Tuesday showed about 33 percent of respondents saying they would vote for ZANU PF while 21 percent said they would back the larger faction of the MDC led by Morgan Tsvangirai. Only one percent of the respondents said they would vote for the MDC faction led by prominent academic Arthur Mutambara.

The survey, which polled 1 202 voters across the country, was conducted in April and May this year well before it was known that ZANU PF and the MDC would reach agreement to hold joint presidential and parliamentary elections in 2008.

"Asked to comment on the party of their preferred candidate if parliamentary elections were to be held today, three in ten (33 percent) would vote for ZANU PF, 21 percent MDC-Morgan Tsvangirai while 21 percent refused to answer.

"About one in 10 (11 percent) said that their vote is their secret. Only one percent of the total respondents said they would prefer MDC-Arthur Mutambara," read part of the survey report.

This is the first time that the MPOI, an independent political think-tank, has predicted a ZANU PF victory at the polls.

The researchers were not immediately available to shed light on how far their findings may reflect possible voting patterns in the presidential election where Mugabe, Tsvangirai and Mutambara will be the main contestants.

It was also not possible to get comment from ZANU PF spokesman Nathan Shamuyarira on the survey whose results were made available to ZimOnline late on Wednesday night.

The MDC, which has always been shown leading in previous surveys by the MPOI, sought to downplay the unfavourable results of the latest survey, saying it reflected the distortions of the electoral environment and that in any event its results are mere opinions of the individual voters interviewed by researchers.

Nelson Chamisa, spokesman of the Tsvangirai wing of the MDC, said: "ZANU PF will not win any elections in this country. It can only rig the elections. The results of the survey are a reflection of the distortions of the electoral environment that is why we want confidence and legitimacy in the electoral process."

Gabriel Chaibva of the Mutambara-led MDC said: "Those are opinions of individuals but that doesn't move us from the fundamental and founding principles of the MDC. I would need to find out whether their sampling was equitable and random."

The survey entitled The Zimbabwe Electoral Process and Attendant Issues: the Voters' Views, also sought to gauge voter confidence in the electoral process and the likelihood of apathy affecting voting next year.

More than half of the respondents were either unsure the polls would be free and fair or were convinced the government did not have the capacity to conduct a truly democratic poll. Forty-six percent said they believed the elections would be free and fair.

The researchers wrote: "Respondents were subjected to project on the freeness and fairness of the 2008 elections. Responding to this just below half (46 percent) predict free and fair 2008 elections, 15 percent gave a 'no' response, whilst nearly four in ten, 39 percent could not tell."

The survey found apathy highest in the opposition's urban strongholds where only 32 percent of respondents said they would vote next year, a factor adding to the possibility of a ZANU PF victory.

A relatively impressive 64 percent of respondents in rural areas, Mugabe and ZANU PF's powerbase, said they would take part in next year's polls.

Despite a collapsing economy and worsening food shortages, Mugabe's government appears stronger than ever before, its grip on power largely untested by an MDC torn apart by divisions over strategy, personality clashes and leadership wrangles, which undermined its ability to exploit Zimbabwe's economic crisis.

The MDC that split into two rival factions two years ago after disagreeing on whether to contest a senate election is a pale shadow of the vibrant opposition party that almost wrestled power from Mugabe and ZANU PF in elections in 2000 and 2002.

A widening and increasingly acrimonious split with its civic allies, unhappy after the MDC endorsed a government constitutional reform Bill that allows Mugabe to handpick a successor, could also inflict further damage to the opposition party's chances at the polls.

However, analysts say all hope is not lost for the MDC which they say with good organisation and mobilisation could still pose a potent challenge to Mugabe and ZANU PF in a free and fair poll.

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