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Comprehensive Analysis Final Report
Statistical Pattern Analysis and Hypothesis Testing of the 2005 Parliamentary Election in Zimbabwe
Zimbabwe Election Support Network (ZESN)
April 22, 2005

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Analysis of voting patterns at polling stations per constituency has been done to show how the people voted in those polling stations where ZESN observers were deployed. ZESN deployed about 6000 accredited observers countrywide. This report does not cover five constituencies. ZESN data used in this report does not include postal votes.

The major findings in this report using ZESN data at polling station level only in which the organisation had a high level number of observers show that the ZEC results which indicated that ZANU PF won, vary with the ZESN pattern in four constituencies, Chipinge South, Buhera South, Makoni East and Gwanda. The other three constituencies Gweru Rural, Harare South and Zhombe also show some inconsistencies between ZEC results and ZESN data although ZESN had few observers in those places. In Bubi Umguza, the ZESN pattern shows that in most polling stations there was a close contest between ZANU PF and MDC except at some few polling stations where ZANU PF had high picks, which probably made ZANU PF win in these constituencies. ZESN data shows that these high picks were recorded at polling stations like Imbizo Primary School in Llewellin Army Barracks and another at Khami Prison. In Insiza at one polling station, Mpalani Homestead there is also a sharp increase in ZANU PF votes. ZESN in its preliminary statement of the 2005 Parliamentary Election noted that some of these polling stations were located in non-neutral places.

Other constituencies of interest noted in ZESN data at polling station level are Chipinge North, Chimanimani, Kariba, Chegutu, Bikita East, Matobo, Hwange East, Gutu South, Masvingo Central and Mutasa South, Kwekwe where the results show a close contest between MDC and ZANU PF.

The study further used hypothesis testing method comparing ZEC constituency results as announced on national television and ZESN data at polling station level (see annexure 2 on statistical validation). Even though ZANU PF and MDC won with huge margins in some constituencies, the ZEC results and ZESN data show inconsistencies. The constituencies for which there are significant differences using hypothesis testing are as follows: one (1) no variance (0.9%), 53 (46.1%) very close, moderate 32 (27.8%), high 29 (25.2%) as presented in annexure 1. They are categorised into ‘no variance’ which means ZEC results and ZESN data are similar, ‘very close’ means the ZEC results and ZESN data are almost similar, ‘moderate variances’ meaning that there is no significant difference between the two sets of election data. Whilst the ‘high variances’ means there are significant differences between the two sets of data. The variances are defined as follows: greater than zero percent to 2 percent variance is considered very close, 3 to 5 percent is classified as moderate and 5 percent and above is categorised as high variance. Statistically it is accepted the fact that any percentage difference between any two numbers of 5% or greater is of significant. Usually in most cases, the count observed by independent bodies tallies perfectly with announced results. However the Zimbabwe 2005 election results prevents this due to the following reasons; the major one is the non-availability of data regarding postal votes, limited access and transparency in tabulation of results at constituency and national level. Furthermore official results were not posted at most polling stations for the public, as the law requires.

In the absence of official copies of tabulation of results at polling stations and constituency level as well as the numbers and distribution of postal votes by ZEC to the general public and all interested stakeholders, many questions remain unanswered.

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