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Issues surrounding the formation of a transitional government in Zimbabwe
Mass Public Opinion Institute
August 2003

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This survey examines the issues surrounding the formation of a transitional government in Zimbabwe. In addition, it also examines people's views regarding a government of national unity and the succession debate within ZANU (PF). The survey was motivated by the desire to find out the views of the general populace in view of the current debate on the way forward for this country.

The survey found out that there is a desire for a change to the status quo. Most people favour concurrent presidential and parliamentary elections. Also outstanding is the desire for fresh elections. For the majority of people, the solution to the problems facing the country lies in dialogue. The two major parties are both expected to compromise and climb down from the positions so far maintained. Further, people expect a democratic selection process in the ZANU (PF) succession issue, with Simba Makoni being the candidate people feel would fare better against the opposition.

Q1. What do you understand by " transitional government"?
The survey shows that a significant majority of the respondents do not know what the term 'transitional government' means. We recorded five responses in order of their frequency.

1 Do not know (80.0%)
2 'Care-taker' government (6.6%)
3 Government of national unity (1.2%)
4 Change of government (1.1%)

Q2. Some people have suggested that the ruling party and the opposition should form a transitional government that should be tasked with organizing a re-run of the presidential election within the shortest period of time possible. How supportive are you of this idea?
A: The responses within the provinces reflects the national picture of the fact that people support the idea of a transitional government which should be tasked with organizing a re-run of the presidential election. 38.1% say that this is a noble idea and are "very supportive". 31.8% are "supportive" thus a total of 69.9% think that the ruling party and the opposition have an obligation of forming a transitional government. Interestingly this view also has a majority even in provinces that traditionally have been considered ZANU (PF) strongholds. The same applies in the rural areas, which too have been considered ZANU (PF)'s strongest support base.

Q3. Some people in Zimbabwe and in the international community have suggested that ZANU PF and the opposition should form a government of national unity while others say they should not. What is your opinion on this issue?
A: 55.6% are of the opinion that ZANU PF and MDC should form a government of national unity. The thinking among the respondents appears to be that a government of national unity will bring genuine peace, law and order as well as social and economic development. In 2000 a survey conducted by the Institute showed that 73.7% respondents were in favour of a government of national unity (GNU).

Q4. If you are of the opinion that the two parties should not form a government of national unity, which of the following statements best describes why you are opposed to the idea?
A: 40.5% say it is important to have an opposition for democracy to function effectively and therefore the MDC should not join ZANU (PF). 36.1% do not trust ZANU (PF) and fear that the opposition could be "swallowed". The bottom line for most respondents appears to be that an opposition party keeps the government on its toes and is therefore necessary.

Q5. Would you be in favour of a constitutional amendment that will require that parliamentary and presidential elections run concurrently in Zimbabwe?
A: 59.2% favours a constitutional amendment that would require parliamentary and presidential elections to be held concurrently in Zimbabwe. Judging also from the apathy that characterized the just ended local elections and parliamentary by-elections, it appears that people are tired of elections. This is a view that emerges whichever way the data is analysed. One respondent said, "If it is just one election, at least we will get beaten up once".

Q6. If you were in favour of this constitutional amendment, when would you like the concurrent elections to be held?
A: Respondents are impatient to wait any longer hence 59.8% say that it is better for the elections to be held "immediately". 21.8% say in 2005 and a few, 6.4% can wait up to 2008 when the presidential election will be due. Interestingly 55.7% of those residing in the rural areas which are believed to be ZANU PF strongholds feel that the concurrent elections should be held immediately.

Q7. Do you think ZANU (PF) and MDC should resume talks to find a solution to the country's problems?
A: 80.0% say "Yes" to the question of whether MDC and ZANU PF should engage in talks. It is apparent therefore that for a majority of the respondents the solution to the problems currently facing Zimbabwe lies in dialogue. What is also interesting is that whichever variable is used for analysis, the view still emerges prominently.

Q8. Which one of the two parties (ZANU PF and MDC) is not genuinely committed to dialogue?
A: 30.5% say ZANU PF is not genuinely committed to dialogue and a majority 35.3% say both parties are accountable for the delays and lack of progress in these talks.16.3% say MDC alone is not really committed to dialogue. While a significant percentage point to ZANU (PF) as the stumbling block to negotiation, it must be noted that the MDC is not completely absolved of blame. It appears therefore that people expect both parties to climb down from their positions even if it is by different degrees.

Q9. ZANU (PF) has indicated that it will only go to the negotiating table if the MDC recognizes President Mugabe's legitimacy, while the MDC has insisted that the talks should be unconditional. What is your opinion on this issue?
A: A majority, 39.7% of respondents are of the opinion that there should not be any conditions for the talks to resume. If the MDC succumbs to the conditions set by the ruling party, this will erode its argument that it lost a flawed election. 32.8% feel that both parties should find middle ground and strike a compromise.

Q10. Some people have said there is need for intervention of external arbitrators like President Mbeki and President Obasanjo for the talks to succeed while others have said that there is need for arbitrators from within the country like church leaders. What is your opinion?
A: 38.9% of the respondents are of the opinion that there is need for external arbitrators. This response slightly outweighs the 36.8% who say arbitrators should be from within the country. Across the age divide, those in the 25-30 year category and those above 51 years of age favour arbitration that comes from within the country as compared to external intervention.

Q11. Some people have suggested that President Mugabe should step down now and pave the way for a fresh election immediately while others have said he should serve until his term expires in 2008 and then retire. What is your opinion?
A: The majority view is that President Mugabe should retire now (51.3%). What is striking however is that this is a view that is shared across provinces, the residential area divide, gender and the different age groups. Even the traditionally pro-ZANU (PF) provinces such as Mashonaland East, West and Central have a majority of respondents expressing the view that President Mugabe should retire now and pave the way for fresh elections. The age analysis reveals the elderly (those aged over 40), who have been pro-ZANU (PF) in the past, have shifted significantly in their views.

Q12. Some people have suggested that President Mugabe is not sincere in his intentions of stepping down despite encouraging debate on his succession, while others have said that he is genuinely committed to stepping down. What is your opinion?
A: 54.8% of the respondents consider President Mugabe's comments about retirement as insincere. Again, it is striking that in the rural areas (hitherto the foundation of ZANU (PF) support) the majority share this view. The same applies to all provinces including Mashonaland East, West and Central. Across the different age groups, there is also consensus that President Mugabe is not genuine.

Q13. Some people have said that President Mugabe should appoint his own successor while others have said the ruling party should choose a successor at its annual conference in December. What is your opinion?
A: The data reveal overwhelming support for the succession issue to be settled by the party as a whole rather than by President Mugabe as an individual. This view runs across all the variables.

If free and fair presidential elections were to be held today, Morgan Tsvangirai would emerge the winner. However, what is of great interest, particularly to the succession debate within ZANU (PF) is the following: Of ZANU (PF)'s potential leaders, Simba Makoni appears to be favourite with people. This view cuts across all the variables utilized in the analysis. Emmerson Mnangagwa follows him.

Q15. Do you think Morgan Tsvangirai should stand as the MDC candidate in the next presidential election, whenever it is held?
A: Respondents were overwhelmingly in favour of Morgan Tsvangirai contesting the next presidential election as the MDC candidate. Again, the view is shared across the different analysis variables.

Q16. Finally, do you think interviews about these and other issues are important?
A: The people appreciate the work that we do. In addition, responses to this question indicate the need to have the public consulted more often and extensively on issues that affect them. Asked why interviews such as these were important, respondents said it was because it afforded them an opportunity to contribute to public policy.

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

1. It would appear that the majority of people desire a change to the status quo. 69.9% are in favour of the formation of a transitional government that would organize a re-run of the presidential elections. 55.6% desire the formation of a government of national unity. In addition, 59.2% of the respondents want concurrent presidential and parliamentary elections and of these, 59.8% want such elections to be held immediately. 51.3% want President Mugabe to retire now and pave the way for fresh elections.
   
2. The majority of people embrace the idea of a vibrant democracy. Of the 39.8% who do not want a government of national unity, 40,5% say the existence of an opposition party is vital for a thriving democracy.
   
3. High on the list of people's expectations is successful dialogue between the two major political parties. 80.0% of respondents say the two parties should resume talks. 35.3% view both parties as currently not genuine in the negotiating process. 39.7% of the respondents feel there should be no conditions to these talks while 32.8% specifically say both parties should strike a compromise. With 38.9% and 36.8% opting for external and internal mediators respectively, it would appear that for most people, the success of the talks lies in commitment from both parties.
   
4. People want a democratic process in the ZANU (PF) succession issue. 60.4% want the party to choose a successor as opposed to 14.5% who want President Mugabe to appoint one. If presidential elections were to be held today, Simba Makoni would be the ZANU (PF) candidate who would fare better against the opposition.
   
5. Public consultation is a vital cog in any democracy and one that the people yearn for and appreciate. 87.5% of the respondents said interviews such as these are important.

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