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Africa rising? Popular dissatisfaction with economic management despite a decade of growth – Policy Brief No. 2
Jan Homeyr, Afrobarometer
October 02, 2013

http://www.afrobarometer.org/files/documents/policy_brief/ab_r5_policybriefno2.pdf

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New findings from the Afrobarometer, based on surveys conducted in an unprecedented 34 African countries between October 2011 and June 2013, reveal widespread dissatisfaction with current economic conditions despite a decade of strong growth. Africans overwhelmingly reject their governments’ management of their economies, giving failing marks for job creation, improving the living standards of the poor, and narrowing the gaps between the rich and poor.

Economic growth appears to benefit only a few, according to the ordinary people who participated in Afrobarometer’s surveys. Growing economies are not creating enough jobs, or making life significantly better for Africa’s poor. Glowing GDP growth figures might therefore offer little solace to people without jobs or those mired in poverty. Popular opinion is thus increasingly out of sync with the “Africa Rising” narrative that has been gaining traction among government officials and international investors.

Key findings: Africa fising?

Written off as “The Hopeless Continent” 13 years ago by The Economist, Africa has since confounded skeptics, becoming the world’s fastest growing region. Annual GDP growth on the continent averaged 4.8% over the past decade (2002-11), leading the publication to acknowledge its misdiagnosis in December 2011, this time tagging Africa as “The Hopeful Continent”. An abundance of upbeat macroeconomic statistics has made Africa a new darling of portfolio investors.

This decisive shift in perceptions of Africa by the international investor community is a significant achievement. Stereotypes about a region or a continent can be difficult to change, even when they contradict measureable indicators, such as GDP growth, but the growing acceptance of the “Africa Rising” narrative represents just such a transformation. Yet to sustain this rising optimism, ordinary Africans must share in the benefits of growth along with those in boardrooms in global capitals. A growing, resurgent Africa should, first and foremost, benefit those that live in it.

The Afrobarometer’s data on popular perceptions about the condition of national economies, and the effectiveness of governments’ efforts to manage them, reveal a wide gap in perceptions between ordinary Africans and the global economic community. In particular:

• Across 34 countries a majority (53%) rate the current condition of their national economy as “fairly”¨ or “very bad”, while just 29% offer a positive assessment. Negative assessments outnumber positive reviews in 26 of 34 countries. The only notable exceptions are Namibia, Zambia and Algeria.
• Just one in three Africans (31%) think the condition of their national economies has improved in the past year, compared to 38% who say things have gotten worse.
• Similarly, 32% say their own personal living conditions have improved in the past year, compared to 33% who say they have gotten worse (34% saw no change). In addition, many individuals still experience regular shortages of basic necessities; these rates of “lived poverty” remain essentially unchanged.
• Africans give their governments failing marks for economic management (56% say they are doing “fairly” or “very badly”), improving the living standards of the poor (69% fairly/very badly), creating jobs (71% fairly/very badly), and narrowing income gaps (76% fairly/very badly).
• Many Africans nonetheless express optimism about the future: 57% expect the economy to be better in a year.
• At the regional level, West Africa tends to be the most positive and optimistic region, while East Africans are consistently the most negative, and the least optimistic about the future.

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