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Business warns Mugabe
Clemence Manyukwe, Financial Gazzette
January 20, 2012

http://www.financialgazette.co.zw/top-stories/11263-business-warns-mugabe.html

Business this week warned President Robert Mugabe against holding rushed polls, even as the ZANU-PF leader came under increasing pressure from party hawks and war veterans to terminate the lopsided inclusive government.

ZANU-PF is currently reloading its guns for an early poll, with or without a new constitution, but faces substantial hurdles in re-activating its long-stated agenda after it faltered last year.

At the party's conference held last month, the issue of elections commanded the second spot on the list of resolutions passed by the delegates: Topping the list was the endorsement of the incumbent as ZANU-PF's candidate in the planned poll.

The other two strange bedfellows in the coalition government - the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) formations are digging their heels in, saying they would boycott a process undertaken without first implementing sweeping reforms in line with the Global Political Agreement (GPA).

Analysts fear a rushed election may drag the country back to the conflict that obtained before the formation of the unity government in February 2009.

Back then, capacity utilisation in industry had dropped to below 10 percent with job losses and the flight of skills taking a toll on the economy. The situation was even worse in the two most critical social sectors - health and education - which were virtually deserted because of staff shortages and the lack of funding to keep them operational.

This is not the first time that business has cautioned against early polls - a position partly influenced by anxieties over a possible return to the pre-inclusive government crisis epitomized by company closures and retrenchments.

Last year, business made an appeal through Vice President Joice Mujuru against ZANU-PF's plans to hold polls in 2011, a position the party held in abeyance following pressure both from home and abroad, including from South African President Jacob Zuma, who has since voiced opposition to electoral plans not supported by reforms.

In seperate interviews, representatives of the two most powerful business lobby groups in the country - the Confederation of Zimbabwe Industries (CZI) and the Zimbabwe National Chamber of Commerce - skirted the issue of when exactly voting should be undertaken, but were quick to emphasise the importance of terminating the Government of National Unity only after fulfillment of the reform agenda spelt out in the GPA.

CZI president, Joseph Kanyekanye, said political parties should first follow the letter and spirit of the pact they signed in September 2008 to end hostilities that had made Zimbabwe a no-go area for investment.

"At some point, we will have elections but there is need to fulfill what the politicians agreed to do in good faith. The pact that our leaders agreed to is what is supposed to be followed. Generally, there is a roadmap and there are some things that need to be sorted out. Business strives on political and economic stability", said Kanyekanye.
The CZI president said the electoral process must be implemented in a credible manner, with buy-in from everyone, in order to maintain peace and stability.

At the moment, ZANU-PF is at loggerheads with its coalition partners in its lone bid to disregard the requirements of the GPA whose underlining objective is to lay a foundation that would pave way for uncontested polls.

Much ground needs to be covered to fulfill the requirements of not only the GPA but also the election roadmap: These include putting in place a new constitution, revising security and media laws, cleaning-up the voters' roll and reconstituting and adequately funding the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC). There is also the issue of national healing and reconciliation, opening up the broadcasting sector to private players, operationalising the Zimbabwe Human Rights Commission, ensuring non-selective application of the law as well as establishing the National Economic Council, among others.

ZEC, which has admitted it is under-funded, has already started preparing for future polls. This week, it held a workshop with editors and chief executives of all of the country's media institutions.

ZNCC president, Oswell Binha, said politicians must be guided by the realisation that the private sector strives in an environment where there is peace and tranquility.

He said there is need to ensure that the holding of polls answers the question of legitimacy and the people's mandate to govern.

"Holding elections this year or next year is not materially important, but what type of an election? We do not have the luxury and latitude to return to chaotic electioneering regimes. It is bad for business", said Binha.

"The country needs to determine key enablers to a peaceful election that will certainly protect security of investment, freedoms, and indeed growth and development of our means of production. Anarchy and chaos will certainly destroy the gains of stability we have enjoyed to date and we implore government to deal with all underlying issues to ensure a peaceful poll."

Binha said the ZNCC believes that key areas needing immediate attention and focus include improving power and energy supplies; attending to the perceived or real country risk factor militating against efforts to attract lines of credit, consolidating current markets and reclaiming traditional ones as well as the guaranteeing of business confidence through policy consistence while allowing critical space to debate major policy shifts and direction.

In a question and answer session with The Financial Gazette, Finance Minister Tendai Biti ruled out the possibility of elections being held this year, saying mechanisms to ensure a free and fair poll were non-existent.

He also ruled out the return of the Zimbabwe dollar, adding that if that is to happen, he would quit government.

The country's economy is expected to expand by 9,4 percent this year from a forecast 9,3 percent last year, mainly on the back of a rebound in agriculture and mining.

But in its monthly review, the African Development Bank (AfDB) said Zimbabwe's projected economic growth depends on a stable political environment, which could be undermined if a contentious general election takes place.

The bank said while international commodity prices would be key to the growth prospects, internal policy decisions, such as President Mugabe's drive to give control of foreign-owned firms to locals, could hurt the economy.

"The on-going implementation of the indigenisation and economic empowerment laws and the expected national elections in 2012 continue to weaken external investor confidence," AfDB said in its review of Zimbabwe's economy.

"The achievement of the 2012 projections is therefore subject to a stable political and economic environment . . . and continued firming of the international commodity prices or increase in output."

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