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Fourth Quarter 2010 Treasury Bulletin
Minister of Finance - Government of Zimbabwe
December 31, 2010

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Introduction

The Fourth Quarter Treasury Bulletin concludes 2010, and, as with previous Bulletins, provides updates on the fiscal and economic developments during the last quarter of the year. However, the Bulletin will also give an overview of economic developments for the whole of 2010 and the 2011 National Budget outlook.

As with the fiscal and economic developments in the third quarter of 2010, the fourth quarter Treasury Bulletin also reflects measures espoused in the 2010 Mid Term Fiscal Policy Review of July 2010.

Economic Overview

In 2010 economic growth is estimated at 8.1% up from the original projection of 7.0%. This was on account of the rebound of the economy beyond expectations in the second half of the year following improved tobacco deliveries which pushed the agriculture sector growth from 18.8% to 33.9%.

Similarly, mining sector growth buoyed by improved minerals prices was revised upwards from 31% to 47%.

Real GDP forecasts for 2010

Real Sector

Agriculture

The growth rate in agriculture for 2010 is estimated at 33.9%, up from the Mid Term forecast of 18%. This upward revision was a result of more than anticipated tobacco deliveries which totalled 123 million kgs by the end of the tobacco marketing season in October 2010, up from the original estimate of 77 million kgs.

In 2011, tobacco output is projected at 150 million kgs.

Improved yields were also noted in respect of maize, cotton among other crops following the post harvest survey as indicated below.

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