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An imploding state
The Economist
August 23, 2007

http://www.economist.com/agenda/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9689181

OVER 3m people are thought to have left the Zimbabwe in recent years, and the UN refugee agency says it is working on contingency plans in case the exodus worsens. There seems every chance that it will, given 80% unemployment, inflation that was said officially this week to be above 7,600% and severe shortages of the most basic goods. Zimbabwe's situation is growing ever more miserable.

Another UN agency, the World Food Programme, reckons that 4m Zimbabweans-about one-third of the remaining population-will need food aid by next year. This year's harvest of maize, the local staple, was meagre. Rains have been poor, and the government's disastrous land-reform programme has turned once flourishing commercial farming into subsistence agriculture.

This is plain to see in rural Mashonaland, the area around the capital, Harare, and the traditional heartland of President Robert Mugabe's ruling ZANU-PF. Most of the land where tobacco and maize used to grow lies fallow, taken over by wild vegetation. One commercial farm that used to grow maize and rear cattle has been divided into 35 plots for subsistence farmers. The irrigation system that once made the harsh terrain lush broke down long ago. Only one of the 100 or so farm workers who used to work there remains. His small plot is dry, and he has to walk several kilometres to a neighbouring farm to get water. He expects his stock of grain to run out in November, after that he'll be lucky to get one meal a day until the next harvest, in March or April.

A makeshift school has been set up in a small farm building, but many parents cannot afford to spend even a few cents on education. The teacher says that a third of children in the area do not go to school. Those who attend class find that hunger is a distraction. Nearby, two pupils are staring up a tree, slingshots in hand. They are hunting a monkey, their only chance of eating meat. The youngest, wearing shorts that reveal his bony legs, says they manage two meals a day: tea and bread, when available, for breakfast, and maize porridge later in the day. His battered shoes are far too big and the laces are tied around his ankles. He lives 4km (2.5 miles) away and walks to school.

In another part of Mashonaland, a white farmer tries to hang on, having lost the bulk of his farm to a senior government official and a few so-called war veterans. He is one of the 350 or so commercial farmers thought to be left, from 4,500 before the government started redistributing land in 2000. A portrait of Mr Mugabe hangs on the office wall and he maintains good relations with local officials. He says he is not fighting land redistribution itself. But some buildings (including his own house), valuable equipment and crops already planted have been taken over as well, so he is fighting that in court. The next crops will need to be planted soon. Uncertain about the future, he may not make the investment. From 1,200 workers, he now employs only about 500. "We are going one way," he says. "Down."

Only cheap government loans and heavily subsidised diesel help to keep his farm going. But he also plants and harvests on neighbouring farms, which have been reallocated to black owners, and gets half the crop. Many new landowners find that reselling their subsidised diesel on the black market is far more lucrative than farming.

Presidential and parliamentary elections in Zimbabwe are scheduled for next March. The ruling party is said to be leaning on traditional chiefs to control rural voters. Road-blocks in Mashonaland are frequent. In Chegutu, close to Mr Mugabe's home, shops are bare, and the struggling local factories and farms have laid off workers. But after years of intimidation, the opposition has almost disappeared. In Marondera, 45 minutes south-east of Harare, the much-feared youth militia roam the streets and the atmosphere is tense.

Voter registration has just finished. The Zimbabwe Election Support Network, a local NGO, says that rural voters loyal to ZANU-PF have been registering in cities, presumably to dilute support for the opposition, strongest in urban areas. But Zimbabweans will no doubt be cheered to know that the leaders of southern Africa, gathering for a summit last week, wished elections next year to be free and fair.

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