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Mugabe gone by year-end?
News 24
August 14, 2007

http://www.news24.com/News24/Africa/Zimbabwe/0,,2-11-1662_2164864,00.html

Johannesburg - Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe may not be in power by the end of the year and the only way to eradicate hyper-inflation will be via a regime change, said Director and Chief Economist of Econometrix, Dr Azar Jammine, on Tuesday.

"I am relying on my knowledge of economic history here and in no country throughout history has hyper-inflation disappeared without a major change in government or leadership. I would submit Mugabe will not be in power by the end of the year," said Jammine.

He pointed out that prices in Zimbabwe are rising at the rate of 3% a day - and may even be higher.

Jammine explained that the strategy of setting price controls had simply seen producers stopping supply as they could not meet their costs, leading to huge demand and little supply and hence higher and higher prices.

He added he was not as optimistic as some on the timeframe for Zimbabwean recovery once Mugabe left.

"It is not easy to eliminate hyper-inflation. There is too much damage. Apart from the change in the regime it will require other things like fiscal discipline and currency changes," he pointed out.

"To get rid of hyper-inflation you need to go cold turkey," concluded Jammine.
Interest rates in Zimbabwe are at 600% and inflation at over 5 000%.

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