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Inflation threatens Mugabe's grip
Daniel Silke, AXcess News
July 09, 2007

http://www.axcessnews.com/index.php/articles/show/id/11548

Cape Town - For the last few years, most observers of Zimbabwe's plight regularly questioned how much further the country could deteriorate before a political social and economic implosion set in. Well, it has just plummeted to new depths of despair - as Africa looks on with little political will to alleviate the long-suffering lives of its ever-smiling people. This week, soaring inflation (put at around 10000% per month) finally took its toll resulting in huge price increases and widespread food shortages that, has finally, started to threaten the cohesiveness of the Zimbabwe regime. Throughout its previous crises, Zimbabweans had managed - somehow - to live a relatively normal life by putting food on their table (albeit more sparingly). This week it all changed. For the first time, the once-thriving capital city of Harare witnessed a retail meltdown which will affect everyone - and most importantly, President Mugabe's cronies who keep him in power.

For once, the economic meltdown can cause an internal political coup. Ironically, it is not Zimbabwe's people who are rising up in anger and taking to the streets in violent protest akin to the Orange Revolution in the Ukraine more than two years ago. It is the simple fact that prices have spiralled and stock shortages, as a result of panic buying, have resulted in ordinary citizens wondering where their next meal will come from - or for that matter, any basic supply and product. What is more significant is that this pending humanitarian disaster (already playing itself out), is simply not addressed by most of Africa's leaders. Blinded by their historic loyalty to Mugabe as a father figure of black anti-colonialism and the liberation from white minority tyranny, no-one has been prepared to tackle the octogenarian President. Even South Africa's Thabo Mbeki, playing quiet diplomacy for years and years, has seen his efforts come to nought.

The African Union, always trumpeting their new found adherence to democratic values and the rule of law, have failed dismally to address this issue. The much vaunted African Peer Review Mechanism which is supposed to act as a self-monitoring device to ensure open societies across the continent is barely worth the paper it is written on if Mugabe's excesses remain unscathed. This week's economic crisis - the latest in a long litany - does for the first time make life tough for every Zimbabwean - even the privileged and protected. If opposition is to emerge in that country, it now seems likely that it will be from senior henchmen of Mugabe rather than from the somewhat moribund opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) and its leader, Morgan Tsvangerai. Indeed, as the shelves or Harare's stores deplete by the hour and as Mugabe arrests shop-owners for not unilaterally lowering prices (a decree he issued to alleviate the plight of the poor and buy some time and maybe even some votes), the country lurches towards self-implosion as a result of inflation and economic decline.

This is no popular uprising Ukraine-style. The implosion is happening around the regime as it battles to survive. No-one is knocking on the doors of the presidential palace and no-one is out in the streets. Ordinary citizens are locked in a battle to secure scare goods - it's the battle on the retail shelves that will be the key to the demise of the Mugabe government. Clever supporters of Mugabe are fast realising that a change of President (not necessarily government) will be needed to put goods back on empty shelves. Perhaps the opposition will have some say as events deteriorate, but the real likelihood is an exit strategy for Mugabe and his replacement by a more pragmatic Zanu PF leadership. This is the solution that much of Africa wants. Keeping the ruling party (however corrupt) in power means that opposition remains marginalised. It will be better for many of Africa's insecure (and dubiously-elected) leaders to deal with a replacement for Mugabe but prop up the ruling party. By encouraging opposition, African leaders open themselves up to enhancing opposition within their own countries. On a continent where 'free and fair' elections are often tainted by corruption and irregularities, even the much vaunted new beginnings of the 'African Renaissance' are not quite ready to admit and legitimise opposition to standards enjoyed elsewhere. Zimbabwe is set for change. Ironically, it is unlikely to be popularist in any way. And, Africa wants it this way. Inflation might well be the downfall of Mugabe himself, but his opposition might have little to gain in the long run.

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