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This article participates on the following special index pages:
New Constitution-making process - Index of articles
Zimbabwe Briefing - Issue 108
Crisis
in Zimbabwe Coalition (SA Regional Office)
April 24, 2013
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Zanu-PF’s
triple aches in the forthcoming election: succession, gerontocracy
and ethnicity
The politics
of succession have been an Achilles heel in Zanu-PF’s quest
for regeneration and ultimately its survival. Zanu-PF has repeatedly
failed to manage its regeneration and allow the infusion of a new
generation of cadres that will resonate with the new voter that
emerged from the beginning of the 1990s. This failure at re-inventing
itself to resonate with the ‘new voter’ whose attachment
to liberation politics is not as emotional, has haunted most of
the liberation movements in Africa. This presents the greatest threat
to the survival of Zanu-PF as a (former) liberation movement, and
as well its quest for continued hegemony. This threat is further
compounded by entrenched gerontocracy and ethnicity commonly referred
to as factionalism. This piece will argue that Zanu-PF is not a
coherent and solid unit as it has been in the past but will be fighting
for its life in the forthcoming elections. This is so, in light
of its failure to regenerate itself and the internecine ethnic struggles
within it. Furthermore it will be argued that ethnicity (commonly
referred to as factionalism) makes Zanu-PF vulnerable in electoral
politics. Its over-dependence on the Mashonaland vote presents its
major vulnerability as Mashonaland is not Zimbabwe and Zimbabwe
is not only Mashonaland as Jonathan Moyo once remarked on Harare
not being Zimbabwe.
Liberation or
independence parties that failed to transform themselves and accommodate
a younger cadre-ship that understands the new voters have faced
extinction in the face of emerging opposition parties in Africa.
United National Independence Party (UNIP) of Zambia is a good case
of a liberation movement, and Malawi Congress Party (MCP) an independence
party, that lost power and are facing extinction. In the same vein
the Kenya African National Union (KANU) faced the same demise but
had to find orphanage and rehabilitation in the Jubilee Alliance
led by Uhuru Kenyatta. Tanganyika African national Union (TANU)
initially failed to appreciate the need for regeneration but quickly
realised the need to transform hence re-christening itself Chama
Chama Mapinduzi (CCM) and undertook various key reforms that resonated
with the new generation citizens (the so-called born frees by Zanu-PF).
The ANC of South Africa, SWAPO of Namibia, BNP of Botswana and FRELIMO
of Mozambique have also realised the dangers of the trappings of
power and entrenching incumbency in office, hence they instituted
leadership renewal within their political DNA. It is the failure
by Zanu-PF to realise this publicly available wisdom that ‘matakadya
kare haanyaradzi mwana’ (literally translated, a child won’t
stop crying from hunger because she ate yesterday).
The past can
only be relevant and comforting if it is only linked to the fulfillment
of needs in the present.
More so, the
failure of retiring its old guard has meant continuous recycling
of failed ideas and leaders, thus creating a paralysis of policy
crafting and implementation within the state apparatus. The results
are glaring with what appears to be rampant looting, plunder by
Zanu-PF elites and mortgaging of natural resources to the Chinese
under the guise of ‘Looking East’. In addition the entrenching
of gerontocracy within Zanu-PF has meant that leadership renewal
is anathema, therefore curtailing ambitions of vertical mobility
within its ranks. The nicodemous political scheming meetings attest
to the increasing discontent within the ranks of Zanu-PF of failing
to deal with regenerating itself. This also has the potential of
alienating itself especially with the ‘new voter’ or
‘born frees’ who have become a key constituent in our
electoral politics. This new group of voters is the sword of Damocles
hanging over Zanu-PF’s head.
Ethnicity is
the other factor that presents a major threat to Zanu-PF having
a coherent and sound electoral campaign strategy. Though, this factor
has been interpreted as factionalism in various political circles,
in this paper it is argued that what is tearing Zanu-PF is resistance
of Zezuru hegemony by other ethnic groups within it. This Zezuru
alliance is rooted within the Mashonaland provinces, and has been
at the centre of Zanu-PF’s politics. The history of this ethnic
hegemony finds expression from the days of the liberation as captured
in the late Professor Masipula Sithole’s book, “Struggle
within the Struggle”, which argued that there was purging
of the non-Zezuru factor and promotion of the Zezuru aligned group
within the political hierarchy of Zanu-PF. This escalation of ethnic
politics in post-independent Zimbabwe saw the clipping and curtailing
of presidential aspirants such as Edison Zvobgo, Emmerson Mnangagwa
and Simba Makoni. The collapse of the Tsholotsho Declaration and
subsequent meteoric elevation of Joyce
Mujuru to the presidium under the guise of women empower-ment, further
entrenched the Ze-zuru clique within Zanu-PF. It should be noted
that Emmerson Mnangagwa (a Karanga) had out-manoeuvred Joyce Mujuru
(a Zezuru) and managed to unite other ethnic groups within Zanu-PF
who felt that it was now their time to take over. The disbanding
of District Coordinating Committees (DCCs) by Zanu-PF in 2012 marked
a further assault to the Mnangagwa/Karanga ethnic group allied with
Manyikas and Ndebele elements in Zanu-PF, that had managed to regroup
and capture the DCCs after earlier failed Tsholotsho attempts. Reasons
advanced were that DCCs were divisive, yet the reality is that it
was the eruption of the ethnic tensions that have been simmering
in the Zanu-PF pot. The fidgeting and instability in Manicaland
and Bulawayo province attest to the increasing discontent and disapproval
of continued Zezuru hegemony in Zanu-PF by other ethnic groups within
it. Similarly, the Manicaland provincial leadership has been dissolved
and the Bulawayo provincial leadership re-aligned and putting a
leadership that is pliant to Zezuru interests. Hence, my argument
that it’s ethnicity at play in Zanu-PF, and not factionalism,
as conventionally argued. More so, this contradicts the claims of
a re-aligned Zanu-PF from ‘Bhora Musango to iBhola egedini/Bhora
mugedhi’, remaining only on Nathaniel Manheru’s wish
list. Simply put the Mnangagwa alliance will always play second
fiddle in the succession matrix of Zanu-PF as it is not trusted
by the Zezuru alliance whose face is Joyce Mujuru at the moment.
In the same vein President Mugabe is only comfortable with the Mnangagwa
alliance; in so far it acts as a brake to the ambitions of the Mujuru
alliance and not entirely replacing the Zezuru hegemony of which
he is a product. The only thing that is binding these ethnic alliances
in Zanu-PF is Mugabe and outside him, Zanu-PF will implode from
intense ethnic warfare. This puts Zanu-PF in a precarious position
and also failing to rally its constituencies to a single and solid
unit.
The matrix of
gerontocracy-failed succession politics and ethnicity presents major
fault lines within the Zanu-PF apparatus. This may also explain
the waning of Zanu-PF support particularly post 1990, as the ideals
of the liberation simply became more of political nostalgia rather
than bread on the table. Therefore, it seems Zanu-PF’s prospects
look dim as exhausted nationalism starts to breed diminishing returns.
Increasingly the voter has metamorphosed, and this has been most
particularly with the so called born frees who are now numerically
a political force as 15 group have emerged after the first group
of those born in 1980 attaining 18 years in 1998. That means from
1998 new voters have been emerging for the past 15 years. This is
outside other age groups that were born towards independence, arguably
from 1974, who were too young to develop ties with the liberation
struggle. It is from this perspective that Zanu-PF looks vulnerable
if this group of voters is tapped into. Furthermore, old age is
most likely to catch up with Zanu-PF’s choice for the presidency
in managing a rigorous campaign, hence its continued reliance on
authoritarian tactics in an attempt to harvest fear in the elections.
The increasingly intense ethnic/factional fights in Zanu-PF, further
undermines the prospects of re-alignment of its constituencies as
warring groups adopt a scorched earth mentality. Just like in a
nasty divorce the warring parties would make sure the other doesn’t
profit.
It has been
argued in this paper that Zanu-PF is not a solid and coherent party
as it was in 1980 or 1985 but is in its last days as it has failed
to regenerate itself and manage the ethnic cleavages within it.
Its prospects in the forthcoming elections look dim, and its survival
will be more dependent on the electoral strategies and blunders
of the pro-democracy movement. There is need to push for electoral
reforms, continuous piling pressure on the Zanu-PF machinery and
as well building the capacity to communicate effectively with the
electorate and monitor the electoral process by the pro-democracy
movement.
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