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This article participates on the following special index pages:
New Constitution-making process - Index of articles
Zimbabwe Transition Barometer - Issue 1
Crisis
in Zimbabwe Coalition
(SA Regional Office)
October 17, 2012
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Introduction
The signing
of the Global
Political Agreement (GPA) in September 2008 and the subsequent
formation of the Government of National Unity (GNU) marked what
many termed as the formal transition of Zimbabwe from a repressive
and authoritarian state to a democratic one. The projection was
that the GPA would provide the medium through which the process
towards full democratisation would be attained. Although the GPA
was seen as a compromise agreement, most democrats assumed it offered
the first in a series of "step-wise" movements towards
democracy. The key to realising such a projection was hinged on
the capacity to fully implement the agreement. With the Southern
African Development Community (SADC) and the African Union (AU)
as guarantors of the agreement, their role in influencing full implementation
was always going to be pivotal.
Whereas SADC's
thrust during the period 2009-2010 was to push for the full implementation
of the GPA; in 2011 the regional body was consumed with the conception
of electoral reforms. In 2012 attention shifted to just one of the
election road map issues - the constitution - assumed to be the
central component of the reform process.
The failure
by SADC to influence implementation of each phase of reform added
to ZANU PF's deliberate reform diversion strategies threaten
to override the imperative transition to democracy. The outstanding
issues in the election road map and the incessant disruption of
the constitution writ-ing process will inevitably compromise key
steps of the democratisation process.
There are indications
that SADC's key interest in Zimbabwe may now merely be the
need to restore political stability; without necessarily estab-lishing
sustainable democracy foundations. The transition to a full democ-racy
is therefore under threat as it may in the end be relegated to a
mere stability-building process. This may still result in a functional
state, howev-er devoid of key democracy tenets.
The Zimbabwe
Transition Barometer is therefore meant to:
- highlight
the critical issues; which the current political process and mediation
may disregard yet are key determinants to building dem-ocratic
foundations in Zimbabwe;
- trace the
progress towards democracy-building, focussing on gaps that exist
and their likely impact in the democratisation process
- highlight
possible scenarios that may arise from key deficits in the democratisation
process
- theorise
and offer practical solutions for civil society and relevant stakeholders
working on the democratisation of Zimbabwe
Our review is
based on the transition process signposts as interpreted from the
GPA; election road map; and relevant SADC communique. The shift-ing
dynamics in Zimbabwe's socio-economic and political landscape
are also key informants to the analysis. Seven key transition process
signposts (termed as "Barometer indicators") will form
the basis of analysis. These barometer indicators are: national
healing; preparation of new voters' roll; constitution process;
monitoring the GPA; national economy; media reforms; and land question.
Each will be evaluated based on: its derivation/connection to the
GPA/election roadmap/SADC communique; key prevail-ing issues; effects
on the democratisation process; barometer indicator scorecard (rating
of its implementation); likely scenarios that may evolve and key
recommendations for policy-makers/civil society/political players/SADC
et cetera.
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