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Voting
intentions in Zimbabwe: A margin of terror
Afrobarometer
August
30, 2012
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Intermittently
over the past decade, researchers have taken the political pulse
of the general public in Zimbabwe. Public opinion surveys provide
information on what ordinary citizens are thinking about the issues
of the day. Among the most anticipated survey results are expressed
party preferences and voting intentions. At any given time, Zimbabweans
are understandably eager to know how their fellow citizens would
vote "if an election were held tomorrow."
A debate has
arisen, however, about the reliability of survey research under
conditions of widespread political violence. Skeptics are right
to ask whether citizens feel free enough to offer honest answers
to sensitive survey questions if, by so doing, they risk losing
life, limb or property. In the memorable words of the late Masipula
Sithole, a "margin of terror" can distort the profile
of public opinion.
Concerns on
this score surfaced in reaction to a report entitled Political
Change and New Politics in Zimbabwe issued by Freedom House
on August 20, 2012. The report used survey data gathered in June
2012 to indicate that "if a presidential election were held tomorrow,"
Robert Mugabe, the candidate of the Zimbabwe National Union Patriotic
Front (ZANU-PF), would garner 31 percent of the votes as compared
to 19 percent for Morgan Tsvangirai, the candidate of the Movement
for Democratic Change-Tsvangirai (MDC-T).
This result
represented a profound reversal of fortunes for both parties. It
was met by a prompt and carefully worded response from MDC-T:
"We note
that a lot of people interviewed refused to disclose their political
preferences. This is obviously for fear of intimidation and the
violence they have been subjected to by ZANU-PF and its military
junta. The margin of terror fundamentally impugns the conclusion
that can be derived from this report" (www.mdc.co.zw,
Aug 22, 2012).
The present
briefing paper offers an alternative account of current voting intentions
in Zimbabwe. The analysis rests on data from the latest Afrobarometer
survey of July.
We make four
points. First, using a standard survey question, we show that the
preferences of the electorate are evenly split between the two main
political parties. Second, we justify this result in terms of the
relative accuracy of our survey methodology. Third, we move beyond
mere description of voting intentions to test explanations, including
the margin of terror. Finally, recognizing that many survey respondents
refuse to answer, we estimate how these "reticent" voters
might actually vote, thus allowing us to speculatively revise observed
survey results by taking political fear into account.
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