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Change and new politics in Zimbabwe
Freedom House
August 18, 2012

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Executive Summary

Zimbabweans are showing the evidence of having been torn in all directions in the transitional period. They have been scarred by the party political wars since the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) from late 2000 onwards first posed an electoral challenge to the Zimbabwe African National Union - Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF). Zimbabweans, as represented in this stratified-random and nationally representative sample, are not sure it seems on what to believe and how to relate to political and economic circumstances. They veer between praises for economic conditions that have improved and condemnations of the Inclusive Government (IG) when they move to more general-level assessments. They leap from great anticipation that the next election is the one that will bring more definitive change to their lives to concrete assessments that reveal more of their politically tormented sides. They proclaim that free and fair elections are in the offing, yet express similar levels of fear of electoral violence and intimidation than they had in the past. The 2012 survey results illuminate these complex, nuanced and evolving positions that Zimbabweans hold today.

The contemporary mood amongst Zimbabweans

• A substantial and persisting mood of optimism, hope and idealism characterises many of the responses in the FH 2012 survey. Zimbabweans have not given up on hoping that the given moment of turnaround to a democratic and human rights. driven system will be unleashed come the next constitution, the next referendum or the next election. However, many of the orientations emerging from the survey reveal cynicism and doubt about leadership deals, government and public institutions, and specifically about IG.
• Zimbabweans link their hope for further change and a better future to four unfolding phenomena and processes in Zimbabwe: the practice of Inclusive Government in which the main political parties are in a power-sharing arrangements, the process of constitution.making, the expected referendum to test popular support for the draft constitution, and the elections that are generally agreed to be due not later than June 2013.

Party support in flux - Trends corroborated through trust measures

• In terms of the declared survey-based support, it appears the MDC.T has been suffering a decline in support, falling from 38% to 20% in the parliamentary vote from 2010 to 2012, in a period of approximately 18 months between the 2010 and 2012FH surveys.
• In contrast, the survey data point to ZANU.PF having experienced a growth in popular support, moving from 17% to 31% in the same period.
• It is essential to bear in mind that a total of 47% of the respondents did not declare their voting intention in this 2012 survey. The percentage includes those who declared their vote to be their secret. Analyses in the rest of the report show that this undeclared category does not veil a systematic party orientation. Rather, should these persons vote in a next election, their support is likely to be diffused across party categories.
• Similarly, survey results are not direct indicators of election outcomes ¡V they are snap shots in conditions of fluidity, conditions that have been confirmed in Zimbabwe, in the support that is declared for all of the political parties, both major and minor.
• The basic thrust of declared party support is borne out through the assessment of trust in the political parties. 52% of the respondents say that they trust ZANU.PF or trust it a lot; the corresponding percentage for the MDC.T only comes to 39%. The response level is higher than on party support, but the measure confirms the gap between the parties.
• It needs to be taken into account that the current survey of 1,198 people carries a margin of error of 2.8% at a 95% level of confidence. These aspects might moderate the exact level of expressed party support, but are insufficient to subvert the trends.

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