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Zimbabwe Briefing - Issue 84
Crisis in Zimbabwe Coalition (SA Regional Office)
July 24, 2012

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Caution Against Too Much Focus on the Constitutional Referendum

Its seems a number of policy makers, including the EU, are placing a high premium on the holding of a Constitutional Referendum, to the point of benchmarking the lifting of restrictive measures on it. It is necessary to caution against such an approach because, as demonstrated below, the referendum may infact be a nonevent lacking in capacity to accurately indicate that, if held peacefully, then national elections expected next year, are guaranteed to be held under a conducive environment, a level political field where violence and intimidation are absent.

The released second draft of the constitution confirms that the document is a product of political compromise mirroring the Global Political Agreement (GPA). As such, if the three main political parties agree on the main clauses of the constitution, it stands to reason that, from the point of view of the political parties, going to referendum will be for the purposes of confirming an already agreed position. As such, it is unlikely that there will be any political conflict or difference that would arise that may prompt Zanu PF and its allies to resort to their common instruments of coercion and intimidation. In fact, as professor Madhuku correctly noted recently, if Zanu PF does not agree to the draft constitution, it is unlikely that it will be subjected to a referendum at all.

A referendum in the context of a common agreement among the political parties will not provide the right context within which to test Zimbabwe's preparedness to deliver democratic, non-violent, free and fair polls. As previously noted, the existing Lancaster-brokered constitution is not, in and of itself, a problem. Disregard for constitutional principles including respect for the rule of law, separation of powers and lack of professional and nonpartisan conduct within key state institutions such as the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission, the police, the Attorney General's Office and the army are the major challenges for Zimbabwe today. The subversion of state institutions by partisan individuals acting with impunity outside the constitutional framework is a deeper governance crisis as recently illustrated in the case where some members of the police and soldiers teamed up with Zanu PF supporters to disrupt political rallies organized by the MDC-T in Mashonaland west, president Mugabe's home province.

A more reliable measure, or litmus test for Zimbabwe's preparedness to hold credible elections will be the manner in which the by-elections for 38 parliamentary constitutiences will be conducted. This would be in accordance with a recent Supreme Court ruling directing president Mugabe to call for by-elections in three constituencies before 30 August 2012. If president Mugabe complies with the Supreme Court ruling, as we urge he should, it would be critical for SADC to immediately dispatch a team to closely monitor those by-elections to see if they fully comply with SADC's guidelines on the conduct of democratic elections.

Critical outstanding reforms that require urgent attention are around the prevention of state sponsored electoral violence and ensuring the security of persons. In addition to a new constitution that is subjected to a referendum, Zimbabwe must institute measures to prevent the security forces, particularly the military, the police and state intelligence agents from unduly influencing the electoral process through use of violence, intimidation or manipulation of the results. Comprehensive transformation of the security sector will undoubtedly take a considerable amount time, but for now, in the short- term, it is critical that the political leadership of the security forces to publicly declare that they will respect democratic processes and not act partisanly to favour Zanu PF.

At all cost, the false and misleading argument that must be avoided, is the one that once a new constitution is confirmed through a referendum then Zimbabwe is ready for fresh elections that are transparent, free and fair.

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